Tag

Slider

Browsing

Sen. Roger Wicker, one of Capitol Hill’s most vocal defense hawks, will soon get the chance to pursue a larger Pentagon budget — and it stands a much better chance with Donald Trump headed back to the White House.

The Mississippi Republican is poised to chair the Armed Services Committee after the GOP romped in Tuesday’s Senate elections. And he brings to the role a plan for tens of billions of dollars in new military spending to expand the Navy and Air Force, modernize the nuclear arsenal and ramp up defense manufacturing.

“We’re not where we need to be in our Navy and our Air Force,” Wicker told Mississippi’s WAPT News in an election night interview. “So that’s going to be an opportunity for me as chairman of the Armed Services Committee, if this majority that’s been projected does hold, to work across the aisle … and build up our military so we can stay out of war.”

Though Wicker, who has been the top Armed Services Republican since 2023, might have the inside track with a Trump administration on spending, he’ll also be one of the most prominent GOP advocates of continuing to arm Ukraine. As chair, he’d likely need to navigate differences between defense hawks and Trump on whether to continue aid.

Budget battle plan: Wicker laid out his preferred roadmap for defense in the spring, urging the U.S. to make “a short-term generational investment” to deter an increasingly cooperative Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, which he has termed an “Axis of Aggressors.”

The plan proposes a $55 billion hike over President Joe Biden’s most recent defense budget request, eventually ramping up to 5 percent of gross domestic product — which would bring annual military spending to more than $1 trillion. Within that, Wicker wants to expand shipyard and industrial capacity to more quickly achieve a 355-ship Navy and expand the Air Force by blocking the retirement of some aircraft and adding 340 fighters over five years.

Wicker won an initial round in June when a bipartisan coalition in the Armed Services Committee voted to increase the price tag of its annual defense policy bill by $25 billion.

That heightened spending may not come to fruition this year, as extra funding would break budget caps agreed to last year and could see opposition from fiscal hardliners in the House. But it showed bipartisan support for a larger military budget that Wicker could capitalize on as chair.

A Trump roadmap? Perhaps just as importantly, some experts argue Wicker’s detailed budget blueprint could provide the GOP administration with fodder for at least their initial defense budget request. While the full extent of Trump’s Pentagon plans isn’t yet clear, confirming top officials and other issues could constrain his first-year spending blueprint.

“They’re going to probably want to go to people whom they trust more and lean on them,” said Bradley Bowman, a former Senate Republican aide who is now a senior director with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “And that would be Sen. Wicker.”

Though hawks have muscled through defense increases in divided government, Wicker has criticized Biden’s spending plans as unserious. He likened raising the Pentagon budget under a Democratic White House “pulling teeth” and suggested a GOP president would be more committed to the cause.

“We’re going to have to increase our national defense to keep us out of a war,” Wicker said in a recent interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. “The idea is to keep the peace by being so strong nobody will take a chance on us.”

Ukraine campaigner: Wicker — a vocal GOP advocate for Ukraine aid alongside Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — urged Biden to use his final days to step up support for Kyiv. He wants faster weapons transfers and looser restrictions on strikes inside Russia, arguing the administration’s limits have left Kyiv “hamstrung.”

While it would be easy for Wicker to confront another Democratic administration for not giving Ukraine what it needs, it’s an open question how he would approach Trump, who has opposed more U.S. spending and has instead said he aims to broker an end to the conflict before he even takes office.

Observers say Wicker is likely to keep those differences behind closed doors.

Bowman argued that Wicker’s “unimpeachable conservative credentials” could help him make an argument on the value of NATO and arming Ukraine. Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted that while there’s still considerable Republican support for arming Ukraine, a potential Trump administration must be convinced to ask for more aid. That could occur, she argued, if the White House is convinced it hastens an end to the war with Russia.

“If their team can be convinced that a last and final surge of military assistance for Ukraine — that is almost entirely spent here in the United States — strengthens Ukraine’s position in a negotiated settlement to end the war, then it is possible,” Eaglen said. “I suspect this will be attempted in private as long as possible to see what comes over in a [fiscal 2026] White House budget request and whether it includes a supplemental.”

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to be “border czar” is ready to execute his boss’ immigration agenda come hell or high water.

“I’ve got to go back and help because every morning I get up, every morning I’m pissed off about what this [Biden] administration did to the most secure border in my lifetime. So I’m going to go back and do what I can to fix it,” incoming Trump administration “border czar” Thomas Homan said on “Fox & Friends” Monday morning just a few hours after Trump announced his selection on the Truth Social platform late Sunday night.

Homan, who oversaw Trump’s controversial family separation policy as acting ICE director, said the enforcement will be the “same as it was during the first administration” but Americans can expect “a hell of a lot more” deportations this time.

“I’ve known Tom for a long time, and there is nobody better at policing and controlling our Borders,” Trump said in the post. “Likewise, Tom Homan will be in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.”

Emphasizing public safety and national security as the top priority, Homan honed in on so-called sanctuary cities Monday, calling on state leaders to work with the Trump administration’s future attempts to crack down on “sanctuaries for criminals.”

“I have seen some of these Democratic governors say they are going to stand in the way. They are going to make it hard for us,” he said. “Well, a suggestion. If you are not going to help us, get the hell out of the way. If we can’t get assistance in New York City, we may have to double the number of agents we send to New York City. We are going to do the job. We are going to do the job without you or with you.”

Homan, who was appointed as acting ICE director in 2017 but was never confirmed by the Senate for the permanent job, said on “Fox & Friends” that his phone was inundated with texts and emails from “thousands of ICE agents and Border Patrol agents excited about the rumor” of his return. He added that retired members of the military also told him they wanted to “volunteer to help this president secure the border and do this deportation operation.”

Homan’s new “border czar” position does not require Senate confirmation.

He officially retired from ICE in 2018, though Trump announced Homan was returning as “border czar” the next year, taking Homan himself by surprise. On Monday, he said he would be “a hypocrite” to not accept the position now.

Homan told the “Fox & Friends” hosts that he has been “off the grid for three days because I couldn’t handle all the phone calls, plus all the death threats rolling in. My family is not at home right now because that is starting.”

“They are not going to bully me away, they are not going to shut me up and they are not going to make me go away,” Homan said. “This is the biggest national security vulnerability this nation has seen since 9/11 and we have to fix it.”

A conservative lawyer working on Donald Trump’s transition, Mark Paoletta, offered a stark warning to career Justice Department lawyers Monday that those who refuse to advance Trump’s agenda should resign or face the possibility of being fired.

“Once the decision is made to move forward, career employees are required to implement the President’s plan,” Paoletta wrote in a post on X responding to a POLITICO story detailing widespread fear among DOJ lawyers about being asked to advance or defend policies they consider unethical or illegal.

“If these career DOJ employees won’t implement President Trump’s program in good faith, they should leave,” Paoletta said. “Those employees who engage in so-called ‘resistance’ against the duly-elected President’s lawful agenda would be subverting American democracy. … [t]hose that take such actions would be subject to disciplinary measures, including termination.”

Paoletta recited a laundry list of Trump goals, including mass deportations, ending birthright citizenship, issuing pardons and commutations to Jan. 6 defendants, reversing “lawfare and persecution of political opponents,” and “holding accountable those who weaponized their government authority to abuse Americans.”

Paoletta, a former counsel to Vice President Mike Pence and to the Office of Management and Budget during the first Trump administration, is playing a role in drafting potential changes in Justice Department policy to be put into effect after Trump is sworn in as president in January.

There are more than a dozen House contests — and a Senate race — still uncalled by the Associated Press, but Republicans are inching ever closer to officially retaining the House majority, as western states continue to slowly tally up their ballots.

Arizona Senate: Several days of strong vote counting numbers have put Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on the precipice of holding this Senate seat for his party, even as President-elect Donald Trump carried the state by nearly six percentage points. Gallego’s lead over GOP nominee Kari Lake was nearly 67,000 votes — or more than two percentage points — following a Sunday evening drop from Maricopa County. Advantage Gallego. 

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania Senate: While the Associated Press has called the Keystone State race for the GOP, Republicans are furious that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has withheld an orientation invite to Sen.-elect Dave McCormick (R-Pa.). Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has refused to concede the race, citing tens of thousands of outstanding ballots. McCormick currently leads Casey by more than 39,000 votes in the commonwealth.

Battle for the House: There are 18 races technically uncalled by the AP, but here’s where to focus your attention to understand who will control the House.

Colorado’s 8th: Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) conceded defeat on Sunday after several batches of ballots broke in favor of GOP challenger Gabe Evans, though the race has yet to be technically called. The expected loss further dents Democrats’ majority hopes.

Alaska’s at-large: Incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) trails by more than 10,000 votes with around 80 percent of the estimated total now counted. Rural ballots are expected to favor her, but the math to catch GOP challenger Nick Begich is daunting. 

Arizona’s 6th: Several favorable ballot drops over the weekend put incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) again in the lead for this swingy seat in southern Arizona. Democrat Kirsten Engel trails by around 2,000 votes with about 83 percent counted. 

California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao (R) leads by more than 10,000 votes — and more than seven percentage points — over challenger Democrat Rudy Salas with around 77 percent of the vote now in. 

California’s 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) expanded his lead over Democratic challenger Will Rollins on Sunday to nearly 7,900 votes — or more than 2.8 percentage points. 

California’s 13rd: Democratic challenger Adam Gray has been eating into GOP Rep. John Duarte’s initial lead as more ballots are counted. An estimated 61 percent of votes are in, with Duarte currently holding 3,261 vote advantage. 

California’s 45th: Several recent drops have been beneficial to Democratic challenger Derek Tran, who now trails GOP Rep. Michelle Steel by 6,128 votes. Around 80 percent of the vote is counted, so gear up for a potential photo finish. 

California’s 47th: Democrats got much-needed good news in their quest to hold Rep. Katie Porter’s (D) open seat when Democrat Dave Min surged into the lead over the weekend, opening a 2,713 vote lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh. 

California’s 27th: In the years-long Democratic quest to topple Rep. Mike Garcia (R) from his Los Angeles-based district, challenger George Whitesides took the lead over the weekend and now boasts a lead of 4,730 votes. Later batches of votes have favored Democrats.

And a big call: Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) won reelection in Arizona’s 1st District, according to a late Sunday race call from the AP. It’s a major hold for Republicans.

Several lawmakers are launching bids for the No. 4 position in House GOP leadership — seemingly the only wide open race after Donald Trump tapped Rep. Elise Stefanik for UN ambassador.

Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) and Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) are officially running for conference chair, according to McClain and a person with direct knowledge of Cammack’s plans.

McClain is presently serving in House Republican leadership as the conference secretary. Cammack has worked as recruitment chair of the House GOP campaign arm and unsuccessfully ran to lead the Republican Study Committee two years ago.

Other Republican candidates are believed to be weighing bids as well, including Reps. Blake Moore (R-Utah) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who challenged Stefanik for the position last term.

Candidates will only have two days to campaign, since the House GOP’s internal leadership votes are set for Wednesday afternoon.

The House GOP conference chair leads the party’s messaging, a critical position as Republicans prepare to try to pass Donald Trump’s agenda in what increasingly looks like an entirely GOP-controlled Congress. The House majority remains uncalled, but Democrats’ path to victory has gotten slimmer. Regardless, the majority will remain narrow.

Stefanik ascended to the role after the party’s then-leadership under former Speaker Kevin McCarthy mobilized to remove then-Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) from the perch over her frequent and public criticism of Trump after Jan. 6.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will not allow Sen.-elect Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) to participate in Senate orientation this week because he doesn’t consider the race to be resolved yet.

Though the Associated Press projected Thursday that McCormick defeated Democrat incumbent Bob Casey in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Casey has yet to concede, claiming that there are still thousands of ballots left to be counted.

“With over 100,000 ballots left to be counted in Pennsylvania, the race has not been decided. As is custom, we will invite the winner once the votes are counted,” a spokesperson for Schumer wrote in a statement. As of Sunday at 4:30 p.m., McCormick was ahead by approximately 39,000 votes.

“Schumer is not allowing @DaveMcCormickPAto participate in Senate orientation this week because Casey refuses to concede the race. What happened to all the demands that our leaders accept the outcome of the elections?” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said in a social media post Sunday.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has also not been invited to orientation yet as his race against Republican Kari Lake has yet to be called. Gallego is ahead by approximately 48,000 votes. (The Associated Press has not called that race; the New York Times has not called either the Pennsylvania or Arizona race.)

On Wednesday, Republican senators will vote for the next majority leader, who will begin serving in January. The three front-runners are Florida Sen. Rick Scott, South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Texas Sen. John Cornyn.

When asked on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” who he would support for majority leader, McCormick told host Maria Bartiromo, “I’m still just now spending time with each of the candidates, and I will have an opportunity to vote this week.”

He added that he would not speak about the pros and cons of each candidate, but emphasized the need to be “in step with President Trump.”

In response to Schumer’s decision to prevent McCormick from participating, Republican politicians have been speaking out, including the majority leader-hopefuls.

“The idea that Schumer would not allow him to participate in Senate orientation is beyond unacceptable,” Thune wrote in a social media post Sunday. “The voters of Pennsylvania have spoken. Looking forward to having Dave’s strong voice in the Senate Republican Conference.”

Scott called the move “disgusting” and said, “They did the same thing to me after I beat a Democrat in 2018. We have to fight this!”

Cornyn called on Casey to concede and reposted a statement by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), which said: “I can’t think of another time when a senator-elect has been excluded from the Senate’s week-long orientation for new senators.”

McCormick argued that there’s no way Casey can gain enough votes at this point to defeat him.

“Mathematically, there’s no path for Senator Casey to win,” McCormick said on Fox. “Currently, I’m up by something like 40,000 votes, which is a very significant margin. And ultimately, Senator Casey’s going to have to decide when he’s willing to acknowledge that.”

President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday said Senate Republicans’ next leader must embrace so-called “recess appointments,” temporary appointments when the chamber is out of session that occur without the chamber’s formal seal of approval.

“Any Republican Senator seeking the coveted LEADERSHIP position in the United States Senate must agree to Recess Appointments (in the Senate!), without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner,” Trump wrote in a post to the social media network X. “Sometimes the votes can take two years, or more. This is what they did four years ago, and we cannot let it happen again.”

Notably, Trump did not endorse any of the three GOP candidates for Wednesday’s upcoming leadership election — Sens. John Thune (S.D.), John Cornyn (Texas) and Rick Scott (Fla.) — though influential figures in the conservative movement have rallied around Scott in the aftermath of last week’s Republican electoral victories.

Scott, though, came out strongly in support of Trump’s idea. “100% agree. I will do whatever it takes to get your nominations through as quickly as possible,” he wrote in response to Trump X post, prompting the site’s owner, Elon Musk, to post “Rick Scott for Senate Majority Leader!”

In recent years, the Senate has routinely come into brief pro-forma sessions specifically to prevent the president from making recess appointments and sidestepping the chamber’s advice and consent. The Supreme Court unanimously ruled in 2014 that three recess appointments made by then-President Barack Obama were unconstitutional because the chamber was not truly in a recess, effectively undercutting the future use of the practice.

Recess appointments can last at the most for two years unless senators later come back and confirm the nominee.

Neither Trump nor President Joe Biden has been able to make recess appointments throughout their presidencies — even when their parties had unified control of Congress and the presidency — because of how the chambers arranged their schedules.

Trump himself has toyed with the idea previously, floating the idea of using extraordinary powers in 2020 to force the adjournment of both chambers of Congress to allow recess appointments. “The current practice of leaving town while conducting phony pro forma sessions is a dereliction of duty that the American people cannot afford during this crisis,” Trump said in April 2020 during the opening days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In addition, the president-elect said the Senate should refuse to confirm any further judicial nominations put forth by President Joe Biden in the waning days of this Congress, saying “Democrats are looking to ram through their Judges as the Republicans fight over Leadership.”

However, Trump’s request is almost certain to fall on deaf ears. Democrats maintain control of the Senate through the end of the year and have made filling judicial vacancies a top priority for the lame duck session.

Trump’s invective is the latest wave to ripple through the quickly evolving race to replace Mitch McConnell as leader of the Senate Republicans.

Scott, who just won reelection last week and was previously seen as a long shot over Thune and Cornyn, has racked up public endorsements from four GOP colleagues: Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.), Bill Hagerty (Tenn.), Rand Paul (Ky.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.).

“I will be voting for my Florida colleague @ScottforFlorida to be our next Senate GOP leader,” Rubio wrote Sunday in a post on X.

Endorsements have also rolled in for Scott from influential figures in the Trump-aligned MAGA movement such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Glenn Beck, Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk.

Scott sought the top GOP post two years ago, challenging McConnell, but garnered little support. Just 10 Republican senators voted for Scott, compared to 37 for McConnell, who’s led the conference since 2007.

He made his pitch on Fox News on Sunday, vowing to seek common ground with Democrats while also pushing through Trump’s nominees expeditiously.

“I’m a deal guy,” Scott said. “I know that to get things done you’ve got to look at yourself in the mirror and say what do we have to do differently. We can’t keep doing what we’re doing. We have to be the change. … It’s going to take somebody that is a deal-doer, knows how to sit down with people and find common ground.”

Cornyn hasn’t weighed in on the matter of recess appointments but vowed “no weekends, no breaks” until all members of Trump’s Cabinet nominees are confirmed in a post Saturday, a promise that would break with recent Senate tradition of truncated work weeks in Washington.

“If I am the majority leader, I will keep the Senate in session until those confirmations occur,” the Texas Republican wrote. “Democrats can cooperate in the best interest of the country, or continue the resistance, which will eventually be ground down. Take your pick.”

Thune said during an interview last week on CNBC that he hoped Trump would stay out of the race for Republican leader, a secret vote that will take place Wednesday once lawmakers return to Washington. “These Senate secret ballot elections are probably best left to senators, and he’s got to work with all of us when it’s all said and done,” he said.

Greta Reich contributed to this report. 

House Republicans are set to consider a variety of new internal rules proposals this week, including some proposals that tie back to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

While there is a broader push to amend the one-member threshold needed to trigger a motion to vacate, there are also some GOP members aiming to make internal changes to their party’s leadership election moving forward. Republicans from the various corners of the conference have put forward their proposals for the 119th Congress, which will be considered this week when the party votes on its new rules package Thursday.

Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) put forward a rules amendment that would require someone running for any leadership spot to have to resign from their present leadership post to seek another, the Florida conservative confirmed to POLITICO this weekend.

If this proposed rules change had been in effect last October during the speakership race, it would’ve meant that a series of members who ran to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy would’ve needed to step down from leadership before seeking the top spot. They include Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), Republican Policy Chair Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), and even now Speaker Mike Johnson, who was then the GOP conference vice chair.

The proposal would offer more opportunities for Republicans to move up the ladder, but risk stunting those with strong leadership ambitions.

Mast described it as a lesson learned from the speakership election that ensued after McCarthy’s ouster — and one he wants to fix for the future. At the time of the speakership elections last year, he criticized the party’s leadership: “I can tell you in this moment. … I would not support any member of our current leadership … Leaders lead. And that’s not taking place,” he told CBS News at the time.

The full list of amendments that directly relate to the GOP conference, which were due Thursday evening, has yet to be reported. But centrists also filed an amendment setting internal repercussions for Republicans who oppose a procedural vote that allows the party to bring a GOP bill to the House floor for a vote, which comes after multiple instances of conservatives blocking bills from even getting proper consideration — and thus sinking leadership policy priorities under both McCarthy and Johnson.

There are also discussions about changing the discharge petition, as POLITICO first reported.

There are several broader rules discussions underway including some that impact how the floor is governed. That includes a push by some to make it harder to attempt to oust a speaker.

While the majority of Republicans despise the tool that allowed Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to lead a small cadre of Republicans in ousting McCarthy against the wishes of most in the GOP conference last October, there are some conservatives in the party who are expected to fiercely fight to keep the threshold. And thin vote margins could scramble plans to adjust it.

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.

President-elect Donald Trump announced Saturday he will not ask his former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley to join his cabinet, icing out two former cabinet members whose loyalties to him wavered.

In a Truth Social post Saturday, the former president wrote that he would not be inviting Haley or Pompeo to join the Trump administration. He added: “I very much enjoyed and appreciated working with them previously, and would like to thank them for their service to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.”

The announcement indicates the extent to which loyalty will factor into the workings of the second Trump administration. Haley ran against Trump for president in 2024 and did not campaign with him even though she offered. Pompeo, who also served as Trump’s CIA director, flirted with a presidential bid of his own in 2024, but opted against challenging Trump for the Republican nomination. Both also endorsed Trump later in the cycle than other former Trump administration officials.

It is unclear if Haley was angling for a position within the second Trump administration. But two people familiar with the deliberations told POLITICO that Pompeo, who campaigned for Trump, was making a concerted effort to be named to the position of defense secretary. Both were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive deliberations.

The two people added that Pompeo’s bid to become the nation’s defense chief ran into heated opposition from close allies of the former president, including his son, Donald Trump Jr., and right-wing commentator and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

Trump’s post came a half hour after POLITICO asked the transition team to comment on a story being prepared about Pompeo’s bid being blocked by Trump Jr. and Carlson.

“There is a desire to not have people with presidential ambitions” use Trump cabinet posts as a launch pad, said one of the two people, a former senior Trump administration official. “He got burned by Mike previously, and by Haley, and his foreign policy views are not aligned with the president.”

Pompeo, a West Point grad and former House member, had long been among a handful of names publicly circulating as a possible defense secretary in a second Trump administration. That field had already winnowed down this week when Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), an Army veteran and vocal defense hawk, took his name out of consideration for an administration job.

A pair of House lawmakers, though, are in the mix. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) – a former Green Beret and near constant cable news presence in defense of Trump – is seen as a favorite for the top Pentagon job. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, is also a dark horse candidate to be Trump’s defense chief.

Spokespeople for Pompeo and Haley did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Carlson and a spokesperson for Trump Jr. also did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Connor O’Brien, Robbie Gramer and Paul McLeary contributed to this report.

Even as Republicans are increasingly optimistic that they’ll keep control of the House, some conservatives remain wary of Mike Johnson — and they’re discussing how to telegraph their concerns in next week’s secret leadership ballot.

With nearly two dozen races still outstanding, Johnson seems close to a major victory: Holding the tiny GOP majority, after a campaign season where he tied himself closely to Donald Trump and campaigned heavily for his at-risk members. Still, some House Republicans are mulling ways to signal their potential opposition to Johnson’s bid on the secret ballot, according to two Republicans familiar with the discussions, who were granted anonymity to talk about private plans.

Johnson is expected to easily clear the majority hurdle needed to become the speaker nominee in that meeting on Wednesday. But conservatives could field a candidate to run against him for the speaker nod, or may try to oppose him or vote present in the secret ballot.

That won’t be enough to derail his nomination, but it’s a warning for Johnson ahead of the real test in January, when he’ll need a majority vote on the House floor to take the gavel. If Republicans only take control of the House by a slim margin, as expected, that means Johnson will need near-unanimous support from his conference since he can’t count on any Democratic votes.

Enter skeptical conservatives, who want concessions from Johnson on the rules governing the chamber and a plan to secure conservative wins in exchange for their votes. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy faced similar demands two years ago, when it took him 15 ballots to get elected speaker on the House floor — he ultimately had to make several changes to the rules that gave conservatives more power and severely weakened his hold on the conference.

“There are a number of members who are still very undecided and withholding judgment,” said one GOP member, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. Their hesitations are tied to “past performance,” like how Johnson handled spending fights and Ukraine aid, but also questions about “whether or not we’re going to be able to deliver.”

If another candidate doesn’t challenge Johnson next week, that could allow leadership to call for a voice vote rather than a ballot — that’s how Paul Ryan earned the speaker nod in 2016 — handicapping any conservative attempt to formally vote against Johnson, at least until January. Hardliners largely in the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus backed a symbolic candidate, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), against McCarthy in 2022. But Biggs failed to get a majority in the conference vote.

The Arizona Republican declined to say if he would vote for Johnson next week or if he would mount another symbolic challenge. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), another Freedom Caucus member, said he wasn’t sure yet if he would support Johnson, adding that his focus is on the rules for the next Congress.

“[The] devil is in the details,” Norman said, while joking that the group was not privately “scheming” but instead “we’re discussing, we’re planning.”

Johnson has a few advantages over McCarthy that could help him avoid a drawn-out leadership fight. McCarthy was looking to lead Republicans when Democrats were going to control both the Senate and the White House. Johnson, however, is looking at a Donald Trump presidency and possible control of both chambers of Congress, and many GOP lawmakers are eager to dive into their agenda.

There is a fear that Trump could retaliate against those hamstringing the GOP agenda, and his influence in deep-red districts could be particularly costly if he goes nuclear in ways he previously has, including encouraging primary challengers.

Plus, if Trump bearhugs Johnson, as the GOP leader predicts he will, that would complicate any effort to derail his speakership bid. If Johnson refuses to play ball on conservative demands, they would have to choose between backing down with little to show for it or risking Trump’s wrath. And if the floor fight that begins on Jan. 3 lasts more than three days, it risks delaying the congressional certification of Trump’s election victory.

But Johnson still has stubborn pockets of opposition he’ll have to work on. Eleven Republicans helped advance an ouster effort against Johnson earlier this year, though several have since indicated they would not have actually voted to boot him from office. He has some detractors outside that group as well, who publicly grumbled that they didn’t have faith in Johnson’s leadership but believed a May ouster would have plunged the conference into ill-timed chaos.

Johnson’s most vocal detractors are Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). While neither have publicly indicated since the election how they will vote next week, Greene has said she wants to delay the secret-ballot leadership contest. Other Johnson critics reside within the Freedom Caucus, and members of the group convened behind closed doors this week with incoming lawmakers to strategize about leadership votes, concessions they want on the rules and the start of the Trump administration.

Multiple conservatives say they are eager to protect the changes they extracted under McCarthy, including the internal rule that allows only one member to trigger a vote to oust a speaker, known as the motion to vacate. But they also have various demands about government spending — and the Dec. 20 government shutdown deadline could be a major test for Johnson ahead of the January floor vote.

But it is not just the conference’s conservatives who are trying to shape the next Congress.

A group of centrists have been crafting their own rule proposals for months. They filed potential amendments to the rules earlier this week, including one that would require a majority of House Republicans to support a motion to vacate in order to trigger a vote to oust a speaker, one member familiar with the effort told POLITICO. Another allows members to be removed from committees if they block the party’s legislative priorities by opposing so-called rule votes on the House floor.

Some Republicans have also called for Johnson to overhaul the House Rules Committee by removing conservative Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Massie and Norman. The three were added to the typically leadership-aligned panel by McCarthy — part of his deal with hardliners two years ago. They’ve used their posts to cause occasional headaches for leadership, preventing bills from getting out of the committee until their demands are met.

Illustrating the tough spot Johnson is in, conservatives are ready to demand that the three members keep those spots.

“I’d like to stay on Rules,” Norman said. “I’m doing a good job.”