Speaker Mike Johnson will likely escape Marjorie Taylor Greene’s first attempt to fire him. The threat of an ouster vote will still haunt him all year long.

Despite near-universal consensus in the House that allowing any one member to force a snap vote on booting a speaker is a recipe for chaos, lawmakers in both parties are increasingly acknowledging that they have almost no chance of changing that rule before January.

It’s not for a lack of interest — in fact, the idea was brought up in GOP meetings as recently as this week. But Johnson is boxed in from both sides. He can’t change the rules with only Republican votes because of the rebels on his right flank, who insisted that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy empower them by allowing a single lawmaker to force a vote of no confidence.

And Democrats, while they’re ready to save him from Greene’s (R-Ga.) first ejection attempt next week, are clear that their mercy won’t necessarily be permanent if the Georgia firebrand, or someone else, tries again. They also have little political incentive to give Johnson more permanent protection, unless he opens up broader negotiations about potential power sharing in the House. That price is too steep for the speaker to pay.

“I don’t know how you put that genie back in the box,” Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio) said about changing the so-called motion to vacate the speakership, which he supports overhauling, this year.

It leaves Johnson almost powerless to officially defang one of the biggest threats to his leadership — even as he’s criticized the low threshold to vote on ousting a speaker as having “harmed this office” and the majority — and opens the door for more disgruntled colleagues to try to force a showdown with him in the months to come.

Not to mention that most Republicans doubt that Johnson or Democrats have much to gain by picking a fight over changing the rule. With a little over six months left before the next round of leadership races, a growing number of Republicans are already predicting that Johnson wouldn’t win the top spot again if he runs. Trying to protect the speakership from his disgruntled hardliners only invites more of them to lash out, making the speaker’s future path to stay in leadership even tougher.

“There would be too much pushback” if Johnson tried to raise the threshold for forcing a referendum on him, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) said, advising Republicans to focus until Election Day on issues like the border rather than the “distraction” of a rules change fight.

“November is around the corner,” he added. “The opportunity to revisit the rules as a whole is right around the corner.”

The internal backlash over a potential change to speaker-deposing rules is already hitting Johnson, thanks to preemptive threats from some conservatives that they’d side with Greene in favor of firing him if he pursues such a change. Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) in particular both warned Johnson late last month that they could support an ouster if he attempted to reform the motion to vacate.

The Louisianian wants none of that drama heading into November, as he tries to keep the conference interested in legislation that unites Republicans and gives them tools to win battleground races that are critical to his chances of keeping the majority.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are already planning to make it harder to fire a speaker if they win back the House in January. Until then, they see the onus as on Republicans to come forward with an offer to fix a GOP-created problem. Plus, Democrats can identify the political reality: More GOP chaos on display can only help them on the campaign trail.

“I’m not a cheap date. … It’s not our job to bail out the Republicans every time they want to overthrow their speaker,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.). He made clear that deal-making would be necessary for multiple Johnson salvage votes, adding that “if it gets to that point, that’s a discussion he and Hakeem [Jeffries] have to have.”

McGovern’s not the only progressive grousing about the lifeline Democrats are providing to Johnson, whose conservatism makes him the caucus’ natural ideological enemy. Many of them are not in much of a mood to lift Republicans out of future predicaments, either.

“I would see that as another move to help Mike Johnson, who supported overturning the election and has been an apologist for crazy right-wing ideas in the country,” Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said of changing the rules for a speaker-ousting vote.

Democrats have already laid out an outline for the kind of power-sharing they might seek with the GOP in exchange for more durable support for Johnson. In an op-ed last year, Jeffries wrote broadly that “the House should be restructured to promote governance by consensus and facilitate up-or-down votes on bills that have strong bipartisan support,” including rules changes that “reflect the inescapable reality that Republicans are reliant on Democratic support to do the basic work of governing.”

Last fall, a bipartisan coalition tried to reach a deal that would have prevented McCarthy’s ouster in exchange for adjusting the partisan makeup of the powerful Rules Committee, which controls what bills go to the floor, and raising the motion to vacate threshold. Those talks ultimately unraveled.

But as Greene’s threat looms, Republicans have increasingly floated the idea of a rules change in private meetings — including with Johnson. The speaker said in a post on X last month that he had been encouraged to endorse a higher threshold for the motion but that the idea didn’t have a “majority of the full House.”

The idea is still coming up, though, including during a lunch for governing-minded Republicans, according to one member present. Separately, Republicans in the business-oriented Main Street Caucus privately urged Johnson to change the rule as soon as possible during a recent meeting, per two Republicans who attended that sitdown.

One of those Republicans, Rep. Kelly Armstrong (N.D.), characterized his pitch to Johnson during the Main Street meeting as: “I don’t know how you can have a one-vote motion to vacate when you have a one-vote majority.”

To help distance Johnson from the horse-trading involved in a rules change proposal, any such blueprint that might be crafted would likely come from rank-and-file members, not party leaders. But many of Johnson’s allies acknowledge that if Democrats pile on too many demands, it likely closes the door to changing the rules until January.

“It would probably require some compromises with the Democrats to do that, and I’m not sure the speaker wants to do that,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), pointing to things like potentially changing the balance of power on committees.

Democratic interest in a trade-off is also likely to further rankle centrist Republicans who fumed for months after McCarthy got no help from the other party. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and a longtime McCarthy ally, argued that Democrats shouldn’t require concessions in exchange for changing a rule that inspires bipartisan loathing.

Fitzpatrick pointed out that “very few people in the chamber” think the one-vote threshold on a motion to vacate is a “good idea” and predicted it would change next year regardless of which party takes the majority.

“Doing the right thing should be enough of a reason to support something,” he said.

Mourners from around the country and in the most powerful positions in state and national politics said goodbye Thursday to New Jersey Rep. Donald M. Payne Jr., remembering him as a dedicated, humble — and famously well-dressed — public servant.

They filled the Cathedral Basilica of the Sacred Heart in his hometown of Newark and, for more than three hours, shared stories that portrayed a soft-spoken but respected politician who eschewed publicity and power to “do the right thing,” as Essex County Joe DiVincenzo put it.

“Donald Payne was a blessing to the Congress of the United States,” said Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, one of more than a dozen speakers at Payne’s funeral. “And he was a blessing to all of us who had the privilege to call him a colleague.”

Payne, 65, died last week following a heart attack. He served in the House since 2012, when his father died in office.

The Payne family is famous in New Jersey politics. Donald Payne Sr. was the first Black person from New Jersey elected to Congress, and Donald Payne Jr.’s cousin and uncle served in the state Assembly for many years.

“For more than half a century, the Payne family has given more to our great Garden State than can be adequately captured in words,” New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said. “It is a family name that signifies a legacy of public service, selflessness and integrity.”

Payne’s friends and colleagues knew him as “Chop” and said they envied his calm demeanor and sense of style. He was not a bombastic politician except with his wardrobe — often wearing colorful suits, a pocket square with matching socks and always a bow-tie.

“He put us all to shame,” Pelosi said.

His reluctance for the spotlight was exemplified in his conduct in the Capitol.

While many elected officials relish the opportunity to speechify on the House floor, Payne did not. He spoke at every opportunity he had, but kept it to about a minute each time, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said. He recalled a recent conversation with Payne about it, when Payne told him he’d found his niche in Congress.

“He said, ‘Hakeem, I’m going to be the Michael Jordan of one-minute speeches on the House floor.’ And that’s exactly what he did,” Jeffries said. “Donald Payne didn’t seek glory, so it’s up to us to tell his story.”

Payne’s political career began as a teenager, when he organized the Newark South Ward Junior Democrats. He worked as a toll booth collector on the Garden State Parkway and rose the political ranks to serve on the Essex County Board of Freeholders and the Newark City Council before assuming his late father’s House seat.

As the ranking member of the House Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials, Payne was instrumental in securing funding for the Gateway project to build new train tunnels linking New Jersey and New York. He also sponsored numerous health-related bills focused on cancer screening and lead testing.

Sen. Cory Booker, who was mayor of Newark when Payne was the city’s council president, recalled a dark period for the city and for himself during the Great Recession.

He’d been “between godawful choices and hellish ones” on the budget, he said, and was in his office poring over a spreadsheet when Payne came uninvited into his office and told him to step away and sit down with him to pray.

“At a time that I was not feeling great about myself, he looked at me and he said, ‘I’m proud of you.’ And he goes, ‘Something told me you needed to hear this, too,'” Booker said. “And he said, ‘I just feel like you need to hear this: Man, I love you.'”

Welling up with tears near Payne’s gasket at the cathedral, Booker said Payne loved his city — and it showed in his work as a lawmaker.

“Love never fails,” he said. “Donald Payne, you never failed Newark.”

Senate Republicans are six months away from their most favorable Election Day map in a decade, with pickup opportunities in at least a half-dozen states — including sapphire-blue Maryland.

Mitch McConnell isn’t predicting a red wave ahead, though. There’s a reason for that.

The minority leader is clearly wary of his party overextending itself despite the advantageous conditions after the twin debacles of 2020 and 2022, when former President Donald Trump’s embrace of flawed GOP nominees contributed to surprising Democratic wins. While former Senate GOP campaign chief Rick Scott (R-Fla.) predicted the party would win up to 55 seats in the midterms, Democrats ended up gaining a seat.

So even though Republicans have room to compete in eight states, McConnell said in an interview that he’s primarily focused on four for now. Even from the doorstep of his exit from leadership, the Kentucky Republican is delivering a subtle splash of cold water to Republicans eager for a Senate romp.

“It’s important to not get too excited, because it’s noteworthy that in the last cycle, not a single incumbent lost. So what’s the message? Candidate quality,” McConnell said in an interview. “It’s important to continue to say you want 51. There’s nothing wrong with getting more, but 51 gives you control. And I think that’s going to be really important, no matter who’s elected president.”

McConnell has a worthy adversary just down the hall from him in the Capitol in Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who retained many of his Democratic incumbents ahead of a brutal political season. And Schumer is unimpressed with McConnell and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines’ (R-Mont.) recruits, calling them “lousy” and describing one as “terrible.”

It’s important to McConnell to break his party’s losing streak this year and hand his successor control of the chamber, particularly after the GOP blew several winnable election cycles during McConnell’s tenure as leader. He’s no fan of Trump, but a strong performance by the former president could turn a crop of swing-state Senate races into easier terrain for the GOP: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and yes, even Maryland.

“You take polls around Labor Day and begin to decide where you’re going to play,” McConnell said. “But we know where we’re going to play for sure right now: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland.”

A striking trend is emerging as an obstacle to those ends: Democratic incumbents are generally running well ahead of Biden’s sagging numbers in their states in limited general election polling, which Schumer attributes to his caucus’ “mainstream” brand of politics. Ultra-vulnerable Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) are also expected to run well ahead of the president.

The GOP’s hopes turn on wealthy outsiders who have not held elected office, including Bernie Moreno in Ohio, Tim Sheehy in Montana, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde in Wisconsin. Arizona Republican Kari Lake and Sam Brown of Nevada were candidates in 2022 but also haven’t held office. Hogan, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice are the exceptions.

Democrats are giddily circulating stories raising questions about Sheehy’s combat wounds, McCormick’s ties to Pennsylvania and Brown’s endorsement of nuclear waste storage in Nevada. Schumer described Moreno as “terrible” and said of Sheehy’s standing in Montana: “They hate all these new out-of-state rich guys.”

“When you’ve never run for office before and you run high up for the Senate — and particularly if you’ve been a business leader where everyone says yes to you — you’re a crappy candidate,” Schumer said. “It will get worse for them.”

Still, Tester and Brown will clearly have tough races in red states that Trump is likely to carry in the presidential election. Because Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) retirement essentially guarantees a GOP pick-up, their reelection bids alone put the majority in play, even if Trump’s support collapses in purple states.

“There’s a path to 51, regardless,” said Daines.

Democrats see some bright spots. While it’s hard to imagine them holding on if Biden flails too much over the summer and fall, Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.) ran well ahead of the president in a CBS poll this week and had healthy leads.

Casey predicted that both his own race and Biden’s will be close, attributing the disparity between him and the president to the election being so far away. And Baldwin said she’s prioritizing showing up in her state’s red areas.

Republicans know they’ll need to work hard to erode Democrats’ popularity and are preparing to hit Tester on his ethics pledges and several other candidates on their finances. More important for the GOP though, may be yoking incumbent opponents to Biden.

“There could be, I think, ticket splitting. So we have to take it as a challenge,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Given all the focus on the usual Senate battlegrounds, both parties are taking out insurance policies in states farther afield. For the GOP, that’s Maryland, which hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980.

Democrats, on the other hand, are looking to compete in a state they haven’t won since 1988.

“I think we’re gonna win in Texas,” Schumer said.

If Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) can run competitively against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), it would take some pressure off of Democratic incumbents and give the party a path to keeping 51 seats. Winning in Texas would still be tough for Democrats — but dethroning Scott in Florida, the party’s only other potential target, may be even harder.

McConnell conceded Texas is not as red as it used to be but added he “can’t imagine Cruz would lose, or Rick Scott.” The GOP leader, who feuded with Scott during his NRSC chairmanship over Scott’s legislative agenda and then defeated him in a leadership race, said that “Rick has got so much money, I can’t imagine that he can’t deal with whatever liabilities he may have.”

With up to 10 seats being contested this fall, each race is hugely consequential. If Republicans only squeak into a narrow majority this year or fail to win control at all, the next cycle will be tougher for them. In 2026, the Senate will see a more balanced map and pick-up opportunities for both parties.

That’s weighing on the GOP’s mind, too. Which helps explain why this time, Republicans are content to win the majority rather than pine after a clean sweep.

“If we come in with 51, it will have been a good day. If we come in with 52 it will have been a great day. Anything beyond that is sort of like going to a baseball game and hoping to see a triple play,” Tillis said.