Rep. Ayanna Pressley is seriously considering jumping into the race for the Massachusetts Senate seat currently held by fellow Democrat Ed Markey and has been checking in with allies about a possible run, according to four people granted anonymity to discuss the private conversations.

That could put the 51-year-old member of the progressive “Squad” on a collision course not only with Markey, but with Rep. Seth Moulton, who launched his own primary challenge last month. Moulton, 47, has framed his bid against the 79-year-old incumbent as part of the Democratic Party’s generational upheaval.

A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll conducted at the end of October and released Monday showed Markey leading a hypothetical Senate field including Pressley and Moulton with Markey garnering 35 percent, Pressley with 21 percent and Moulton with 25 percent. The survey of 416 Massachusetts likely Democratic voters has a 6.1% margin of error.

“The Congresswoman remains focused on ending Republicans’ government shutdown, serving her district, and effectively fighting back against the White House’s attacks on the LGBTQ+ community, Black and brown folks, federal workers, and our immigrant neighbors,” Pressley spokesperson Ricardo Sánchez said in a statement Tuesday.

Even before the poll was released, Democrats were chattering about a possible Pressley candidacy.

She has a record of success running against a longtime incumbent. She was elected to her Boston-based House seat in 2018 after unseating incumbent Rep. Mike Capuano in a primary challenge. She became part of a progressive surge in Congress that brought the first four members of the Squad into office.

But she would likely start a Senate race at a financial disadvantage: Pressley only had about $148,000 cash on hand at the end of the last quarter, according to FEC filings. Markey had stockpiled about $2.7 million as of Sept. 30, while Moulton had $2.1 million.

Asked about her reelection plans while campaigning with local officials in Boston Tuesday, Pressley said she is “just very focused right now on how to mitigate the harm of this shutdown and get the government reopened.”

Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 — when Pressley was two years old. He fended off a primary challenge from another younger congressman, then-Rep. Joe Kennedy III, in 2020.

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) announced Tuesday he will not run for governor in 2026.

Speaking from the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, Padilla said it was “with a full heart” and “more commitment than ever” that he was choosing to remain in Congress rather than seek the governor’s mansion.

“I choose not just to stay in the Senate. I choose to stay in this fight because the Constitution is worth fighting for. Our fundamental rights are worth fighting for. Our core values are worth fighting for. The American dream is worth fighting for,” Padilla said.

As California’s senior senator and a fixture in state politics, Padilla would have brought formidable assets to a governor race without a commanding front-runner. A concerted campaign to draft Padilla spoke to the unsettled state of the field after former Vice President Kamala Harris took a pass earlier this year and interest groups and elected officials hunted for an alternative to poll-leader Katie Porter, who is facing fallout from videos of her sparring with a reporter and berating a staffer.

In deciding not to run for governor, Padilla said he reflected on an altercation between himself and Homeland Security officials when he interrupted a briefing by the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem.

“Y’all recall that event,” Padilla said. “As alarming as that experience was not just for me and our family, but for most people who have seen the video. Countless people have told me, I’m glad you’re fighting for us. I’m glad you’re there.”

Padilla had the potential to loosen Porter’s grip on the lead by entering a crowded field of contenders competing in the June primary for two general election spots, which go to the top vote-getters regardless of party.

But with his decision to bow out, the hunt for a Porter alternative will likely continue. Other potential entrants include Rep. Eric Swalwell, a Bay Area Democrat, and billionaire donor Tom Steyer, who has dipped a toe into the water with an ad blitz for term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom’s gerrymandering ballot initiative.

Sacramento’s political class eagerly greeted the prospect of Padilla running, seeing him as a known quantity and a person with whom they could work. Many of the elected officials, interest groups and political operatives who steer money and endorsements are wary of Porter’s progressive record, her inexperience with state politics and her reputation for abrasiveness — the last of which has dogged Porter’s current campaign.

Padilla has spent years climbing the ladder of California politics, ascending from the Los Angeles City Council to the Legislature to the secretary of state’s office. Newsom, his longtime ally, appointed him to the Senate in late 2020 after Harris vacated her seat to become vice president.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries praised a bipartisan group of House lawmakers who presented a health care compromise proposal Monday for working “in good faith” toward an extension of key health insurance subsidies.

But Jeffries said he expected the other congressional chamber to spearhead any deal on the expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits.

“It seems to me more likely that if there’s a bipartisan agreement to emerge, it will emerge from the Senate, not the House,” Jeffries told reporters Tuesday, casting doubt on whether House GOP leaders would ever allow a compromise.

“It’s been my view from the very beginning that traditional House Republicans aren’t serious about doing anything meaningful, and they never have been,” he added.

The group of four House lawmakers — two Republicans and two Democrats — released a “statement of principles” Monday in an effort to break the logjam as the government shutdown entered a sixth week. They pitched a two-year extension of the tax credits along with new income caps for enrollees.

Democrats have made expiring health care subsidies a centerpiece of their shutdown demands. Jeffries has kept his commitments on the issue vague, ruling out a one-year extension but otherwise saying his caucus would evaluate any bipartisan compromise forged by the Senate.

The Senate rejected the House-passed funding patch Tuesday afternoon for the 14th time, as Congress is poised to beat the record later in the day for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

There is some newfound hope on Capitol Hill that a bipartisan agreement can soon be reached to fund federal agencies, since private talks are ramping up among a small group of rank-and-file lawmakers. Still, the talking points of party leaders remain partisan and despondent.

“Republicans seem willing to tell their constituents: Screw you,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a floor speech Tuesday.

The New York Democrat noted that millions of people who buy health insurance on the federal marketplace got their first glimpse over the weekend of how substantially their premiums will increase if Republicans don’t agree to extend subsidies set to expire at year’s end.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said he’s “optimistic” a deal can be reached this week to end the funding lapse.

“Democrats’ victims are everywhere,” Thune said Tuesday. “We just need five Democrats to join the three who are already voting with us, and we could end all this pain and reopen the government. That’s all it takes.”

Any possible extension of soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies will need to get 60 votes, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday as rank-and-file lawmakers close in on a deal that could reopen the government and pave the way for additional heath care talks.

Democrats have privately floated an arrangement for the Senate to hold a vote to extend the subsidies at a simple-majority threshold rather than the 60-vote margin for most legislation. Thune rejected the idea, saying there was “no way” that would happen.

“Honestly, think about what the Democrats are asking us to do here,” he told reporters. “They’re saying it’s going to take 60 just to fund the government, but we want to have a vote on a massive sort of piece of health care legislation at 51.”

Agreeing to a health care vote would be part of a larger shutdown-ending deal the rank-and-file senators are discussing. It would also include advancing a new stopgap spending bill, moving some full-year funding bills, plus holding a guaranteed vote once the government reopens on the ACA subsidies, which expire Dec. 31.

Thune said he was open to another possibility under discussion: attaching the full-year Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA and Legislative Branch appropriations bills to an updated stopgap.

The terms of the health care vote are not the only sticking point. Republicans are divided over how long a temporary funding bill should run that would allow lawmakers to write new long-term spending legislation. Thune previously told POLITICO he believes the stopgap needs to go into 2026 but hasn’t ruled out a tighter timeline favored by some GOP appropriators.

Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed Tuesday he, too, wants to avoid a holiday-season jam. He is facing intense pressure from GOP hard-liners who want to push the deadline into March — if not later in the year.

“I’m not a fan of extending it to December,” Johnson said.

Thune said Monday he hopes to have a new stopgap ready to send back to the House by the end of the week. He said Tuesday that senators could work into the weekend if they are on a “glide path” to ending the 35-day shutdown.

Johnson also confirmed the House will return to Washington if the Senate passes a deal to reopen the government. He separately told House Republicans on Tuesday that the House would return “as soon as possible” after the Senate acts, according to four people granted anonymity to describe the private call. Leaders confirmed members would get 48 hours notice, the people said.

Under Thune’s best-case timeline, that would bring the House back early next week — ending what would be a seven-week recess.

The shutdown is barreling into a record-breaking sixth week and Senate Democrats are divided on their strategy for getting out of the morass.

On one side of the split screen, nearly a dozen Democrats are laying the groundwork for talks with Republicans that could bring an end to the partisan stalemate.

Bipartisan conversations so far have focused on passing a new funding patch to reopen federal agencies, reaching an understanding on moving full-year appropriations bills and guaranteeing a floor vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), as she left a meeting with fellow Democrats Monday night, said in an interview she hoped for a resolution in the coming days.

On the other side of that screen, many of Shaheen’s colleagues are still demanding Democrats dig in until Republicans promise to extend the ACA tax credits.

“We have the moral responsibility to stand up and fight for the 15 million people who are about to lose health care,” Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats, said in an interview Monday. “What the polling tells me, and what I believe to be true, is that the vast majority of the American people are behind us not to give in to Trump or the Republicans.”

Fellow progressive Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are also calling on Democrats not to wave a white flag.

The Democrats’ intraparty fissure comes as Republicans grow emboldened in their own shutdown posture, with some believing they might be able to flip enough Democrats as soon as this week to pass a stopgap the House can clear for President Donald Trump’s signature.

There are signs of bipartisan momentum in the House as well, where two Democrats and two Republicans teamed up Monday to unveil the first tangible compromise framework for extending the ACA subsidies since the shutdown began (more on that below).

It’s all likely coming as a relief for Senate Republicans amid Trump’s calls to get rid of the filibuster to end the shutdown without help from Democrats — a move that would carry enormous political risks and doesn’t have the support among Republicans, anyway.

“The votes aren’t there,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Monday.

Despite cautious optimism there are plenty of differences still to overcome, from internal strategy in both parties to the practical matter of how far out to push the end date for a new continuing resolution.

Senators are currently debating whether to craft a funding patch that would run through December, the preference of senior appropriators, or January, desired by most Republicans. Democratic leadership hasn’t endorsed a deadline yet.

Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she’s feeling hopeful about all of it, but “who knows — it could all fall apart.”

What else we’re watching:   

— House eyes possible return: House Republicans will hold a virtual conference meeting Tuesday, where Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to talk his conference through the status of government shutdown negotiations with the Senate. If the Senate can pass an amended stopgap spending measure by the end of this week, the House would likely return to session next week following more than 45 days of recess.

— Mamdani endorsement watch: It’s Election Day in New York City — and the last day for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to endorse Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor. Schumer has given no indication he plans to do so, saying last week he was having conversations with the democratic socialist but declining to offer his public support.

Mia McCarthy, Calen Razor, Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

The top aide to Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García filed paperwork Monday to run for her boss’ seat — a move that signals the longtime Chicago Democrat might be preparing to retire from Congress.

Patty García submitted her nominating petitions in the final hour before the filing deadline, effectively closing the door to any additional Democratic challengers. As a result, the Democratic primary ballot will feature only her and Rep. García unless he drops out.

The two Garcías are not related. Neither returned requests for comment Monday.

One person close to Rep. García’s camp who was granted anonymity to discuss the situation ahead of a public announcement said the four-term incumbent does not plan to run.

If Rep. Garcia, 69, decides to withdraw, his chief of staff would automatically become the party’s nominee — and, in a safely blue district anchored on Chicago’s West Side, would almost certainly win the seat.

Garcia wouldn’t be the first Chicago politician to make such a move. In 2004, after winning his Democratic primary, Democratic Rep. Bill Lipinski chose not to seek reelection.

He convinced the Illinois Democratic Party to substitute his name on the ballot with that of his son, Dan Lipinski, who subsequently won the general election and served in Congress until 2021.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he was “optimistic” an agreement can be reached this week to end the five-week shutdown as bipartisan rank-and-file talks make progress.

Thune, speaking to reporters, said the goal was to be able to send a revised stopgap bill to the House by the end of the week to reopen agencies.

“Obviously there were a lot of conversations over the weekend, and hopefully that will bring about the desired result,” Thune said.

The Senate is expected to extend the Nov. 21 expiration date of the House-passed funding punt for at least several more weeks. Thune previously told POLITICO that the deadline would need to be extended to at least January, but he hasn’t yet endorsed a specific timeline. GOP leaders are discussing a new deadline that would fall between late January and March.

Thune said on Monday that he is “open” to January but in listening mode as he faces competing demands within his conference.

“The longer sort of runway there is better,” he said.

The bipartisan group of rank-and-file senators has been discussing how to package a short-term funding patch that would reopen the government with a plan to move full-year funding bills and give Democrats a vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies.

Senators involved in the talks believe they are making progress, and while Thune said he was personally “optimistic” a shutdown off-ramp could be imminent, he said he wasn’t yet “confident.”

Republicans are hoping that more Democrats will signal they are ready to end the shutdown after Tuesday’s off-year elections, including closely watched governor races in New Jersey and Virginia.

Democrats say it isn’t the elections that are influencing their thinking but rather the pain that has been inflicted on Americans, including expected delays in federal food aid this month.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told reporters Monday he also sensed senators are getting closer to an exit strategy but said he wasn’t yet sure what that would be. Democrats have demanded negotiations on health care and so far have rejected the offer of a vote absent a bipartisan deal.