Congress’ nonpartisan budget scorekeeper on Tuesday significantly increased its estimate of the U.S. budget gap, predicting that the nation will run a $2 trillion deficit this year.

The latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office is up from its estimate of $1.6 trillion earlier this year. Four main things are driving that $400 billion increase, CBO said — citing President Joe Biden’s student loan relief policies as the No. 1 cause of the bigger gap between the amount of money flowing into federal coffers and cash going out this year.

New student loan policies will cost about $145 billion during the current fiscal year, which runs through September, CBO predicted. That includes higher subsidies for student loans and the Biden administration’s plan to reduce balances for many borrowers.

The budget office also increased its longer-term deficit forecast, predicting that the budget gap will be $24 trillion over the next decade. That’s an increase of $2.1 trillion from its estimate earlier this year. Bills enacted in recent months — including the $95 billion foreign aid package Congress cleared in April for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan — are the single largest driver of that multi-year growth in the budget gap, adding $1.6 trillion in projected deficits.

Interest payments on the nation’s nearly $35 trillion debt, as well as the deficit, are both “large by historical standards,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said.

Among other drivers of the bigger projected deficit, spending is also projected to be about $50 billion higher during the current fiscal year because Medicaid payments are exceeding earlier estimates. Another $70 billion of the increased deficit projection for this year is attributed to delays following recent bank failures, since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation isn’t recovering payments as quickly as expected.

But that bank-related money will flow in later, “almost entirely” making up for the growth in this year’s deficit, CBO said.

In addition, the budget office hiked its projections for the national debt over the next decade, estimating that debt held by the public would rise to 122 percent of GDP by 2034 — the highest level ever recorded.

CBO predicted that economic growth would slow from 3.1 percent in 2023 to 2 percent this year amid higher unemployment and lower inflation. Short-term interest rates will change little this year, CBO forecast.

The Senate is moving ahead on annual spending bills despite lacking a bipartisan agreement on funding totals — starting markups next month, Senate Appropriations Chair Patty Murray said Tuesday.

The committee will hold its first fiscal 2025 markup when the upper chamber returns from the July Fourth recess, she said in a floor speech.

The Washington Democrat added that she hopes both sides will resolve their weekslong impasse over funding totals, which has affected all 12 spending bills for next fiscal year. Democrats and Republicans have been feuding over whether defense and domestic programs should receive equal budget boosts.

And with federal cash set to expire on Oct. 1 and a presidential election approaching, Congress will almost certainly have to pass a so-called continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown later this fall. That would punt current funding levels and buy more time for bipartisan, bicameral government funding talks after Nov. 5.

“Last year, we were able to produce strong, bipartisan bills in committee, and I am hopeful we will be able to do the same again this year,” Murray said, according to prepared remarks.

The parity problem: Democrats and Republicans have been at a stalemate over whether lawmakers should blow through funding caps established by last summer’s debt deal in order to provide equal funding increases for the Pentagon and domestic programs, allowing agencies to keep pace with inflation.

The budget deal struck by President Joe Biden and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last summer allows for a 1 percent budget hike for both defense and non-defense programs. Republicans argue that’s woefully inadequate for the military, while Democrats have been firm that any significant funding increase for defense above the caps must be met with an equal increase for non-defense programs.

“Now, I am glad so many of my Republican colleagues are in strong agreement — at least when it comes to defense,” Murray said. “But every senator calling to boost defense spending alone is seriously missing the point, and any senator who thinks I will let us leave non-defense spending behind is seriously misreading the situation.”

Consequences of the caps: Murray stressed that a mere 1 percent increase for domestic programs means families on federal food assistance will suffer, rural families could lose their homes, federal law enforcement agencies will slash positions, federal firefighters will see a pay cut, and more.

“I can’t emphasize enough that, under the caps for non-defense, everything struggles to keep up with rising costs,” Murray said. “Programs our kids, the future of our country, depend on — public schools, public health and nutrition assistance to name a few — can’t get by on 1 percent.”

Key context: Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, has already proposed tweaking annual defense policy legislation to reflect a $55 billion boost for the military next fiscal year. But any extra money will ultimately be delivered through the Pentagon’s annual spending bill.

Last year, Senate appropriators approved their funding totals for a dozen spending bills along party lines before passing all of their bills in committee, with mostly bipartisan support, for the first time in five years.

The upper chamber could still manage to reach an agreement that allows the committee to mark up and pass bipartisan bills in the coming weeks. But time is running short before August recess.

The House Ethics Committee on Tuesday provided new details on its ongoing investigation into Rep. Matt Gaetz — a day after the Florida Republican publicly lashed out at the secretive panel.

The bipartisan committee, in a statement, defended its long-running probe — saying it was “confident in the integrity of the process” — and disclosed that it had conducted more than a dozen interviews, issued 25 subpoenas and received thousands of pages of documents as part of the investigation.

“Based on its review to date, the Committee has determined that certain of the allegations merit continued review. During the course of its investigation, the Committee has also identified additional allegations that merit review,” the committee said.

The committee said it is reviewing a long list of allegations against the Florida Republican, including sexual misconduct, illicit drug use, accepting improper gifts and obstructing investigations into his conduct. And it added that it’s not taking further actions “at this time” on some allegations, including that Gaetz shared inappropriate images on the House floor and accepted a bribe or “improper gratuity.”

It’s the most comprehensive accounting to date on what the notoriously private panel, which is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, has been doing behind the scenes on Gaetz. Typically, the committee gives only sparse details on its investigations until after they have concluded. But Gaetz had lashed out at the panel publicly the day before in a social media post, saying that it had opened “new frivolous investigations” into him.

The Ethics Committee declined to comment on the timing of the statement, including whether it was drafted specifically as a response to Gaetz or had already been in the works. Asked about the Ethics Committee statement, a spokesperson for Gaetz referred back to the Monday post on X, noting that it “speaks for itself.”

Gaetz has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. Instead, he has characterized the House panel’s investigation as an attempt by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his allies to get back at him for leading the California Republican’s ouster. Some of McCarthy’s allies have privately suggested trying to expel Gaetz from the House, depending on the panel’s ultimate findings.

The House Ethics Committee opened its investigation into Gaetz in 2021. It restarted its probe in May 2023 after the Justice Department concluded its own investigation into the Florida Republican without bringing charges.

Since then, there have been signs of momentum behind the scenes. POLITICO first reported in May that the committee had subpoenaed the Justice Department for documents and records.

One Nation, a top conservative group, is pushing a new ad against Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) as it gears up for a campaign running through Labor Day against the Democratic incumbent.

The advertisement, part of a nearly $6 million buy, implores Rosen to “vote against reckless spending and for struggling Nevada families,” citing her votes for the infrastructure law and the Democratic social spending package.

Rosen faces GOP nominee — and Army veteran — Sam Brown in a competitive reelection bid in her swing state. Brown won his bid to take on the incumbent a week ago.

Outside money is flowing into the Silver State. Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest outside group, placed $36 million in ad buys earlier this year to support Rosen.

The incumbent, a first-term senator from the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson, reported having more than $10 million in campaign cash on hand as of late May, compared with $2.5 million for Brown.

Rep. Matt Gaetz claimed Monday the House Ethics Committee has opened “new” investigations into him, which he called “frivolous.”

Earlier this year, the Ethics panel subpoenaed the Justice Department for information tied to an existing investigation into the Florida Republican by the committee. That probe began in 2021 and was examining allegations including sexual misconduct and illicit drug use.

Gaetz has maintained his innocence through multiple ethics inquiries and alleges the panel is using investigations against him as retribution for spearheading the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last fall.

“This is Soviet,” Gaetz posted on social media Monday.

The Justice Department closed its long-running sex trafficking investigation into Gaetz and declined to charge him back in early 2023. Gaetz was admonished in 2020 for a threatening 2019 tweet directed at Michael Cohen, then-President Donald Trump’s former lawyer, but the situation “did not violate witness tampering and obstruction of Congress laws,” according to the panel’s report at the time.

The Ethics Committee, which is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Gaetz’s disclosure.

The bruising primary for Virginia’s 5th Congressional District is finally coming to an end on Tuesday.

But one month before that, House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) and his GOP rival John McGuire found themselves face-to-face in New York with the former president himself.

Both men had traveled to the Big Apple on May 16 to support Trump in his criminal trial. Once they were close to Trump, they used their access to try to curry favor with the presumptive presidential nominee — who at that point had yet to endorse in the primary.

Here’s how it went down, according to five people present in the room, including some who spoke on condition of anonymity: When Trump mentioned a debate with Joe Biden, Good seized an opportunity to needle McGuire for declining to debate him. Good told Trump that he knows the feeling of an opponent who would not debate.

“It kind of sucked all the air out of the room, because McGuire was on the other side of the table and it was just super-awkward,” recalled Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), a Freedom Caucus member who is backing Good.

Crane, who called McGuire “weak” for not debating, also remembered the Virginia state senator shooting back in front of Trump that Good would “rig it.” Good quickly asked how one would rig a debate.

McGuire then openly questioned why he should debate Good when his internal polling shows him up 14 points over the incumbent. Good shot back that his internal survey showed him up 25 points, according to two of the five people present in the room. Others in the room more generally recalled a back-and-forth about polling, including the two men talking over one another.

Trump cut through the lingering tension, according to two people in the room, where he spent most of his time complaining that his criminal trial was unfair and rigged.

Here’s where Trump telegraphed the McGuire endorsement he later offered. Trump ribbed Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Good, the two people in the room who initially endorsed his primary challengers in the 2024 presidential race.

As four people in the room recalled, Trump asked about Norman’s endorsement of Nikki Haley, South Carolina’s former governor. Some Republican lawmakers present responded: “Nikki who?” Norman said he acknowledged to Trump that she’d lost in the race.

Then Trump turned to Good, as confirmed by Crane and Norman, and asked how his endorsement of “Ron DeSanctimonious” (read: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis) was working out.

Crucially, Norman painted the entire exchange as more lighthearted than the Good-McGuire animosity might suggest.

“Everything was pretty quick. And it was really — Trump was laughing about it,” Norman said, adding: “The back and forth with Good really just wasn’t that much.”

Trump endorsed McGuire less than two weeks later. The Trump campaign did not immediately return a request for comment on the May 16 back-and-forth.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s meeting with former President Donald Trump on Monday ended with a thumbs up and a photo op — the latest sign of bonhomie between the party’s top leaders.

“Our Party is united, and working together, I am confident we will send President Trump back to the White House, win back the Senate, and grow our House Republican majority!” Johnson wrote on social media.

Johnson and his party’s House campaign chief, Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate to discuss the party’s election strategy.

Trump has already played kingmaker in many GOP contests this year. But this sit-down — the speaker’s second meeting with the president in a week — shows party leaders are working toward further collaboration as November approaches.

Just last week, Trump told a crowd of House Republicans he would devote his own time to keeping their majority in November. While Republicans are optimistic about flipping the Senate and hopeful about winning the White House, the battle for the House is expected to be a tough climb. Trump, though, vowed to do 100 virtual town halls with GOP members ahead of the election.

House Democrats, meanwhile, mocked the Republican leaders’ Florida visit, with their campaign arm accusing Johnson and Hudson of attending to “bend their knee” to Trump.

“Vulnerable House Republicans are so obsessed with their wannabe dictator that they are going to Mar-a-Lago to get tips from him on how to remind voters that they’re to blame for ripping away reproductive freedom and overturning nearly 50 years of fundamental rights under Roe. Voters will remember come November,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement.

Senate Democrats intend to seek unanimous consent for legislation banning bump stocks — which allow semi-automatic rifles to be fired like fully automatic machine guns — following last week’s Supreme Court decision to overturn a ban on them.

“Republicans were supportive of banning bump stocks when the Trump Administration took this step, so they should support it” on Tuesday, said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) has led the charge against bump stocks, which were used in the nation’s deadliest mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017 that killed 60.

In a 6-3 decision last week split along ideological lines, the court said the definition federal regulators sought to adopt went beyond the words Congress wrote into law nearly nine decades ago.