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Senate Republicans won’t get the free-for-all GOP presidential primary they predicted (or hoped for). Some still aren’t ready for it to be over.

As the primary boils down to former President Donald Trump against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, some still-on-the-fence Republicans said Monday that Haley should keep going and give the party a choice against Trump. Haley has no official Senate endorsements while Trump has 27 — more than half the conference — but that doesn’t mean she lacks fans.

“She’s great … and I’m really proud of her. I think it’s good to have that discussion and highlight the different candidates. So, I’d love to see her stay in,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), the No. 4 GOP leader, who is officially neutral even after Trump won her state’s caucus.

Haley’s showing in New Hampshire’s Tuesday primary will cast a shadow the following weeks leading up to South Carolina, with one question on most Republican minds: Is there any appetite for a one-on-one primary battle with Trump, or is the whole thing over already? There are 22 unaffiliated GOP senators, ranging from Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to rank-and-file members. If Haley is crushed, some of them will are likely to swing around to Trump quickly.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she hopes Haley will stay in the race, “but obviously it’s going to depend on what the margin is tomorrow … I hope she does very well.” Collins, who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, stayed neutral in the 2024 primary because she had many friends in the race at the outset.

“They’ve got to look at the data and look at the path and make the decision that’s right for her,” unaligned Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said of Haley. “Statistically, it’s a steep hill. I have tremendous respect for Nikki. She’d make a good president.”

A couple other senators, Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota and Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer simply said they needed to see what happens in New Hampshire before commenting. Another neutral senator said it’s pretty much over either way.

“The handwriting is on the wall,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who said he will support the eventual GOP nominee. “The sooner we can unify behind a single candidate the better our chances of beating President Biden, which I think is the ultimate objective.”

Even some of those who desperately want to beat Trump aren’t seeing much of a path. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said that Haley has “run a very effective campaign, but what was once a long shot has become a very long shot.”

And what about an endorsement from New Hampshire’s 2012 primary winner? “I’m not going to curse her with that pronouncement,” Romney said. “But I won’t be supporting President Trump.”

Bipartisan border talks are “largely done” and have advanced to the Senate Appropriations Committee — signaling talks are entering a potential final phase — according to lead Democratic negotiator Sen. Chris Murphy.

“Our work is largely done,” Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “The conversation has really moved over to Appropriations. So, there’s no reason why we couldn’t begin consideration this week.”

Murphy said bill text is not yet finalized, but noted “we need to give people the ability to read and understand” the deal before a vote. He added that both caucuses have already been briefed “on the outlines of what we have agreed upon.” Senators will want time to review the bill and potentially propose amendments, but the process for that will ultimately be up to leadership.

The language from Murphy is among the most optimistic negotiators have used in weeks — with Murphy and fellow negotiators Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) looking to find some degree of compromise on the complex issue of immigration. Republicans conditioned further aid to Ukraine on the inclusion of border policy changes as part of the White House $106 billion national security supplemental request.

Presidential parole authority has been the main lingering issue in talks, with Democrats arguing parole is a key tool for managing migration at the southern border. Asked if talks moving on to the Senate Appropriations Committee signals that parole issues have been worked out between negotiators, Murphy reemphasized that “the work now” is in Appropriations.

Senate leadership last week signaled interest in moving the supplemental this week — meaning there’s at least some degree of expectation that the border talks will be wrapped up soon.

But to be sure, the talks have already blown past multiple deadlines, and the spending component of the border will still be challenging because of ties to any potential policy changes. Negotiators have considered a wide array of potential changes as part of the talks, including restricting asylum and parole, expanding expulsion authority and implementing a cap on daily entries.

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.

Rep. Nancy Mace on Monday endorsed former President Donald Trump’s bid to return to the White House, the latest chapter in her series of conflicting statements about the former president.

“I don’t see eye to eye perfectly with any candidate. And until now I’ve stayed out of it. But the time has come to unite behind our nominee,” she said in a post on X. “To be honest, it’s been a complete shit show since he left the White House.”

That’s a marked difference from how the South Carolina Republican spoke about Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, though her stance had clearly started to soften in the years since. Here’s a timeline of Mace’s evolving relationship with the former president:

Jan. 7, 2021, after the attack on the Capitol: Mace took to television to say of Trump: “everything that he’s worked for … all of that — his entire legacy — was wiped out yesterday. We’ve got to start over.”

Jan. 13, 2021: Mace votes to acquit Trump for the events of Jan. 6 but says in a floor speech: “I believe we need to hold the president accountable. I hold him accountable for the events that transpired for the attack on our Capitol.”

Jan. 17, 2021 on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “We need to rebuild the Republican Party. We need to rebuild our country. And I am counting on my colleagues to join us, to be that new voice for the Republican Party to lead us out of the crisis going forward because our country is counting on us.”

Feb. 9, 2022: Trump endorses Mace’s primary rival, Katie Arrington, in the GOP primary for her House seat. In a statement, he calls Mace “an absolutely terrible candidate” who has been “disloyal” to Republicans.

Feb. 10, 2022: Mace appears in front of Trump Tower in New York to seek his support, despite him endorsing her rival just the day before. “I was one of his earliest supporters,” she said.

June 14, 2022: Mace defeats Arrington for the Republican nomination despite Trump’s endorsement of her rival. She goes on to win another term in November.

June 11, 2023: Mace hit the Biden Justice Department for indicting Trump over his handling of classified documents, saying “whether you agree with Donald Trump politically or not, most of America sees this for what it is, as weaponizing the executive branch to take out your political enemies.”

June 21, 2023: Mace says of her past relationship with Trump: “I’m willing to bury the hatchet to save the country, and I know President Trump is too.”

October 2023: Mace prompts significant GOP blowback after she votes with seven other Republicans to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his post, a surprise defection.

January 22, 2024: The South Carolina Republican endorses the former president just a day ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

Senate Republicans have a solid shot in the battle for Senate control this year after landing some of their top recruits and nabbing an almost certain pickup. Still, several critical factors could hurt their bid to take back power.

The biggest drama is out West, where independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale are mulling their futures. Their decisions will have crucial implications across the entire map, where Republicans either need to net two seats or win the presidency and gain just one.

Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) retirement has GOP senators confident they’ve got one seat locked down. Winning another could depend heavily on Sinema, Rosendale and a slew of other unknowns.

If Sinema runs for a second term, she would create an unpredictable three-way race as an underdog independent attempting to peel voters from Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake, her party’s presumptive nominee. Rosendale, meanwhile, would create a massive headache for Republicans if he follows through on months of build-up and challenges Tim Sheehy for the GOP nomination in Montana, which is one of the party’s top two Senate targets.

There’s more in flux: Republicans are closely watching whether former President Donald Trump will weigh in on crucial contested primaries in several purple states. And there are still big questions about whether last-minute recruits will help expand the map beyond Ohio, Montana and a half-dozen battlegrounds. Oh, yeah, and the most well-known liberal senator in the country might retire — or serve deep into his 80s.

Here’s what POLITICO is watching as the battle for the Senate heads into a defining stretch:

Big Sky Republican divides

Rosendale’s decision is probably the most important to the Senate map. It would create a GOP primary that could force the national party to spend tens of millions of dollars and divide a state party that needs to throw a perfect game to beat incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

Tester beat Rosendale in 2018 despite support from Trump and Republicans of all stripes. Since then, Rosendale won a House seat and developed a reputation as a notorious rabble-rouser, helping oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and now advocating hardline shutdown positions to get tough new border policies.

He’s signaled to Republicans for months he plans to run. And the party has made it absolutely clear they don’t want him in the Senate race.

“I hope he stays in the House and continues to develop seniority there,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who runs the Senate GOP’s campaign arm.

That hasn’t dissuaded Rosendale. He has needled Sheehy by yoking him to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and suggested to colleagues that he’s going to get in the race. He’s continuing to campaign outside his district and is set to host campaign events with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

“Steve Daines has made it exceedingly clear that the Senate committee is supporting Tim Sheehy,” Rosendale said in a brief interview. “People across Montana still overwhelmingly would rather have someone who is an independent voice for them and not answering to Mitch McConnell.”

The filing deadline is March 11. Tester’s not making any bets, saying in a brief interview: “I can’t predict what the hell he’s going to do.”

Sinema’s choice

The Arizona senator ditched the Democratic Party more than a year ago and only solidified her independent status since then, pursuing a border and immigration agreement that could augment her legacy of bipartisan deal-cutting. Before that, she helped broker a gun safety deal, rejected changes to the filibuster and cut down some provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.

And in her typical reserved style, well, she’s still not looking to talk about her reelection decision-making.

“I’m not thinking about that at all right now. You know what I am thinking [about]?” Sinema said in a brief interview. “The border.”

Sinema, who generally aligns with Democrats on key votes, has until April 8 to decide to run again — but in reality, she would need to start collecting signatures to make the ballot well before then. As an independent candidate, she will face more onerous signature requirements. And if she decides to run, the race would be challenging, to say the least. She consistently lags behind both Gallego and Lake in polls, though she has more than $10 million in her campaign coffers.

“There’s not a path that we can see for Kyrsten in that race,” Daines said. “It’s going to be Kyrsten’s decision, but I think it’s going to be a difficult path for her.”

Still, a Sinema reelection bid would create a chaotic and indecipherable race in a challenging state. It would undoubtedly affect the campaign strategies of both of her foes, even if she starts out in third place.

The Trump effect

Trump handpicked several of the Senate GOP’s candidates in 2022. It didn’t go well — Republicans blew winnable races in states like Arizona and Pennsylvania — but they swear it’ll be different this time.

Trump has backed several of the GOP’s preferred candidates this cycle and, as of now, Trump and Daines differ on only one race: Ohio, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee is neutral, and Trump has endorsed businessperson Bernie Moreno. Yet there’s plenty of opportunities for more mischief.

An endorsement from the former president could whittle down an unruly field in Michigan, where a slew of Senate contenders are vying for his support: Former Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and businessperson Sandy Pensler. And former Rep. Justin Amash, who became a libertarian after voting to impeach Trump, is mulling a run — as a Republican.

The jockeying for Trump’s favor has only grown more heated as he surges in the presidential primary. Pensler just released an ad cataloguing Rogers’ past anti-Trump comments.

“They know he’s going to be the candidate,” Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) said of Trump. The candidates “all want” his endorsement, he added, but “the question is: What’s the advantage to him to give it?”

There’s also a crowded primary in Nevada where Trump could weigh in, featuring his former ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Gunter, hardline conservative Jim Marchant and NRSC-backed veteran Sam Brown. Plus there’s Montana, where Trump’s endorsement could become a key factor if Rosendale gets in — particularly after the lawmaker infamously snubbed Trump on the House floor.

The final recruits

Wisconsin is the preeminent battleground of modern day politics. So how the heck does Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) not have a real GOP challenger yet?

The two-term senator’s expecting one soon: Eric Hovde, a wealthy businessperson who ran for Senate in 2012. Hovde has been interviewing potential staff and consultants ahead of his likely run, according to a person familiar with his plans who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

“Steve Daines … indicated [Hovde] was jumping and had their full support. So that’s what we’re planning” for, Baldwin said in an interview. Still, she said “there may well be” a more crowded primary.

Hovde’s launch would give the Senate GOP its final recruit in their critical battleground targets. But other strong candidates could bring reach seats into play. On the Democratic side, there’s hope Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) can catch fire against conservative Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.).

Nella Domenici, the daughter of New Mexico’s last GOP senator, just launched a run in her typically blue state. And Republicans are always dreaming of big names like Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, though Daines said he hasn’t talked to the Virginia governor about it.

A progressive icon’s big decision

Vermont is no battleground, but it is the home of the highest-profile liberal senator in Congress: Bernie Sanders.

The two-time presidential candidate teased this month that he will make an announcement in the “near future” about his plans. Sanders will be 83 on Election Day, but it would be wrong to assume he’s retiring because of his age — he’s only gained political power since his torrid presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020, becoming Health, Education, Labor and Pensions chair.

“I hope he runs. He’s special. He’s played a special role in the country and a special role in American politics and certainly in Vermont,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.).

If Sanders were to retire, it would leave a void in the progressive movement’s leadership. The gruff liberal is more willing than most in the Senate Democratic caucus to challenge President Joe Biden or other party leaders over hot-button topics, ranging from arming Israel to endorsing primary challenges against his colleagues.

That propensity has seemingly endeared him to voters; Welch called him the “the most popular politician in the country.”

Louisiana’s Legislature has passed a new congressional map, brushing off opposition from the Bayou State’s own Speaker Mike Johnson and positioning Democrats to pick up an additional seat in the midterms.

The Louisiana Legislature finalized the map Friday. GOP Gov. Jeff Landry is expected to sign it into law soon.

The new map was spurred by a 2022 federal court ruling that the state’s congressional lines likely violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the voting power of Black Louisianans. The 2022 midterms, which used the soon-to-be-former map, saw five white Republicans and one Black Democrat elected in a state where Black residents represent roughly a third of the population.

The court ordered the state to draw a second majority-Black district. The Louisiana Legislature complied, sacrificing Rep. Garret Graves’ (R-La.) seat and drawing a new district that snakes from northwest Louisiana all the way down to East Baton Rouge.

The new 6th district now has a majority-Black voting age population and will almost assuredly elect a Democratic representative later this year.

In doing so, the Legislature brushed off Johnson, who in a statement earlier this week had urged state lawmakers to continue fighting the court order. That likely would have resulted in a court-drawn map for the 2024 elections. The speaker also suggested the Legislature could draw a map that does “not require the unnecessary surrender of a Republican seat in Congress.”

Republican state lawmakers stressed that they believed that if they had not drawn a map now with a second majority-Black district, the court would have dictated the map itself without their input. Legislators there said they prioritized protecting Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.), the only woman in the delegation.

Graves has publicly complained that the new map would not withstand scrutiny in the courts, particularly due to the shape of the new district. But with its passage — which had bipartisan support in the state Legislature — Graves finds himself without a natural political home base.

A lawyer for Kevin Morris is accusing House Republicans of misrepresenting the Hunter Biden confidant’s closed-door testimony this week.

Morris’s lawyer, in a letter to Oversight Chair James Comer, accused the Kentucky Republican of including “cherry‐picked, out of context and totally misleading descriptions” in his public readout of the private deposition.

“You did not treat Mr. Morris fairly and engaged in your standard practice of partially and inaccurately leaking a witness’s statements. … I demand you now release the entire transcript of Mr. Morris’ interview,” Bryan Sullivan, Morris’s attorney, wrote in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO.

An Oversight Committee GOP spokesperson rebuffed Sullivan’s accusation, predicting that the “transcript will affirm Chairman Comer’s readout of the interview with Kevin Morris,” an attorney who has also advised Hunter Biden.

“The Committee intends to release the transcript soon but we do not have it from the court reporter at this time,” the spokesperson added.

In a lengthy statement released Thursday after the deposition, Comer said Morris was “paying Hunter Biden’s tax liability to insulate then-presidential candidate Joe Biden from political liability.” He added that “since Kevin Morris has kept President Biden’s son financially afloat, he’s had access to the Biden White House and has spoken to President Biden.”

But Sullivan, in his letter, said Comer’s statement is “intentionally misleading” and gives “the impression that there is some sort of deeper relationship with President Biden.”

“Mr. Morris testified that he has only had cursory communications with President Biden at public events like Mr. Biden’s daughter’s wedding, and said basic courtesy things as ‘hello’ and ‘how are you’ and President Biden making comments about Mr. Morris’ unkempt hair style that lasted a few minutes,” Sullivan wrote, adding that Morris also “testified that he has only been to the White House a few times.”

Sullivan also accused Comer of misrepresenting political donations Morris made, details of loans Morris gave to Hunter Biden including using quote marks around the word loan in his public statement, and a previous email Morris had sent about the money

Morris is the latest closed-door interview conducted as part of Republicans’ sweeping impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, which has largely focused on the business deals of his family members. Lawmakers, and staff, from both parties took part in the interview, which is one of several scheduled as Republicans look to wrap up their probe in a matter of weeks.

Republicans voted last year to formalize the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, but still appear short of the votes to actually recommend booting him from office. Though they’ve found evidence of Hunter Biden using his last name to try to bolster his own influence, and poked holes in previous statements by Joe Biden and the White House, they’ve struggled to find direct evidence that actions taken by Joe Biden as president or vice president were meant to benefit his family’s business deals.

The House cleared a stopgap spending bill on Thursday afternoon that officially keeps federal agencies funded through early March, sending the measure to President Joe Biden’s desk.

The chamber approved the shutdown-averting legislation hours after the Senate’s relatively speedy passage, with lawmakers hoping to avoid travel complications caused by an impending snowstorm set to bear down on Washington, D.C. The measure, known as a continuing resolution, passed with mostly Democratic support in a 314-108 vote, a point sure to irritate conservatives who are already fuming over spending.

With parts of the government now funded through March 1 and March 8, leading appropriators have a tremendous amount of work to do in just a matter of weeks. They’re looking to finalize a dozen annual spending bills that Congress has so far failed to pass as House conservatives seek deeper cuts.

If lawmakers fail to clear those bills over the next six weeks, appropriators warn that Congress might have to fall back on yet another a stopgap spending bill, this time through the rest of the fiscal year. That would saddle federal agencies with flat budgets or, worse, steep funding cuts.

“It’s really hard to think that we’re going to get this done by March, but we have to get it done by the 1st of March,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), a senior appropriator. “Otherwise, there will be a CR till the end of the year.”

“Let’s quit playing political games and get the damn thing done,” he added.

Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), another senior appropriator, said Congress has left agencies in “a terrible position, having to spend money exactly like they did the last fiscal year. They can’t get rid of old programs that don’t work. They can’t generate new programs. It’s a terrible way to do business.”

He added: “I think you do start risking a full-year CR if you don’t get this thing done in the foreseeable future.”

The most recent stopgap spending bill is the third passed by Congress — so far — in the fiscal year that began on Oct. 1, with House Republican infighting hobbling the appropriations process. Passing all 12 real spending bills, and not short-term patches, will require a massive bipartisan lift that could further land Speaker Mike Johnson in hot water with his right flank.

Earlier this month, Johnson struck a deal on a government funding framework with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, setting defense and nondefense spending levels for the current fiscal year that closely mirror those in the debt limit package negotiated by Biden and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last summer.

House conservatives, enraged by Johnson’s agreement with Schumer, now say they’re determined to fight for conservative policy wins across a dozen spending bills — on thorny issues like abortion, for example — which have no shot at success in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

The House Freedom Caucus urged Republicans to oppose the stopgap shortly before the passage vote, adding that the measure does nothing to “secure the border.” Earlier Thursday, conservatives unsuccessfully urged Johnson to attach Republican border security legislation as an amendment, which he denied.

Haggling over the broader spending bills can’t begin in earnest, however, until leading appropriators lock down a deal on funding totals for all 12 of them. It’s a critical next step that has consumed the last couple weeks for Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and her House counterpart, Chair Kay Granger (R-Texas).

“This has been dragging on for a long time and I really don’t know why,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the top Republican appropriator in the Senate, who added that she’s “concerned” about the lack of a resolution.

Just that step of the process could take several weeks, a problem for top appropriators who are under an obvious time crunch. Still, many of them expressed optimism on Thursday that it would be possible. Murray said in a floor speech before the Senate passed the stopgap that she has been “working nonstop” with colleagues in both chambers to get things moving “as quickly as we possibly can.”

“Passing this measure will allow us the time we need to hammer out those funding bills for [fiscal 2024], after many months of needless delays,” she added.

Hunter Biden plans to testify behind closed doors as part of House Republicans’ sweeping impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden on Feb. 28.

Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) announced the private deposition with the president’s son on Thursday, following a week of negotiations with his lawyers.

“Hunter Biden will appear before our committees for a deposition on February 28, 2024. His deposition will come after several interviews with Biden family members and associates. We look forward to Hunter Biden’s testimony,” Jordan and Comer said in a statement.

A person familiar with the negotiations between committee staff and Hunter Biden’s attorneys confirmed the date.

It’s a significant U-turn from just a week ago, when House Republicans were threatening to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with a prior subpoena for a closed-door deposition last month. Instead, Hunter Biden appeared outside the Capitol to reiterate his offer of a public hearing. His team had voiced concerns that any private testimony could be selectively leaked.

But that stalemate shifted on Friday. As House Republicans officially scheduled a contempt vote, Hunter Biden’s legal team said that if Republicans would issue new subpoenas that they could comply with a deposition. That kicked off a flurry of behind-the-scenes negotiations, and the House GOP hit pause on their contempt plans.

The person familiar with the negotiations, pointing back to worries about selective leaks, noted that Hunter’s team has been in discussion with committee staff “regarding a way for Hunter to provide the facts in a way that addresses his concern.”

Republicans view Hunter Biden as a key witness in their impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden, which has largely focused on his family’s business agreements. Republicans are hoping to make a call in a matter of weeks on whether or not to move forward with articles of impeachment against the president.

House Republicans voted to formalize their inquiry last month. But they still face skepticism within their own ranks, since some lawmakers want to see a “smoking gun” before they vote to actually impeach. That currently leaves investigators short of the votes needed to recommend ousting Biden from office.

Though Republicans have found evidence of Hunter Biden using his last name to bolster his own influence and poked holes in previous statements made by Joe Biden and the White House, they have yet to show irrefutable evidence that actions taken by Joe Biden as president or vice president were meant to benefit his family’s business arrangements.