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Progressives are frustrated with President Joe Biden for embracing the bipartisan border security deal that’s emerging in the Senate. And they’re starting to rage against it more loudly.

It’s not the only area where the left is fuming at the Biden administration — its handling of the the Israel-Hamas war has sparked public protests by progressive activists for months. Once the border deal sees the light of day, however, liberal anger is likely to boil over.

That’s partly because Senate negotiators have ruled out serious immigration concessions to the left, such as permanent status for Dreamers, a decision that effectively shifts the negotiations toward the GOP. Progressives are also watching Biden tack to the right by swearing he’ll shut down the southern border, using authority that the still unreleased bill is set to give him, if Republicans help pass it.

“The president would just do very well to remember it has never worked for Democrats to just take up Republican talking points and think that somehow Republicans are going to turn around and thank us for it,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Progressive Caucus. “That’s just not going to happen.”

It has the makings of a potential Democratic crackup, if the border proposal that’s now on the rocks in the Senate manages to stay alive. Speaker Mike Johnson is signaling the border deal is “dead on arrival” with his House Republicans, but liberal opposition could prove just as problematic even if Johnson is persuaded to act on it.

Democratic leaders have avoided any criticism that could further endanger the monthslong border talks; House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Monday that his caucus would evaluate it once they could review bill text, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has welcomed the negotiations. But progressives are openly predicting that the entire effort could backfire by further alienating a party base that’s already disillusioned by the war in Gaza.

“It’s bad immigration policy. It’s bad for our economy. It’s not humane. It’s bad for Americans, and then I think it’s bad politics as well. I don’t think that we should be accepting a hostage-taking situation and Trump-light policies as Democrats,” said Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas).

The calculus is quite different for Democratic incumbents in battleground states and districts. They have increasingly signaled their willingness to cut a deal that could alleviate a huge electoral vulnerability by showing that the Biden administration can tackle spiking migration.

While the text of Senate negotiators’ proposed policy changes isn’t available yet, people close to the talks have signaled that the final product is likely to expand details’ expulsion authorities, restrict claims for parole and asylum, and set triggers that would close the border altogether if crossings surpass a certain daily threshold.

“You have got to make decisions based on what’s the right thing to do. And we need stronger border security,” said Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), one of the caucus’ two endangered red-state incumbents, said that “we need to give [the president] the tools so he can do what we need to do to keep this country safe.”

In the House, where Democratic leaders are waiting for details of the border deal to firm up further before weighing in, the party’s purple-district incumbents sound much like Tester.

“I hope we get a bipartisan border security bill out of the Senate that gets put on the House floor that I can support,” said Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), who said she could “absolutely” support a bipartisan deal.

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) praised the emerging package as “a good deal” that would give Biden “the tools he needs to solve the problems that most of the American people are complaining about on our southern border.” If Republicans don’t put it on the House floor, he added, “this will be on them.”

Senate border negotiators still hope to present a deal to members of both parties this week. It would be tacked on to the White House’s national security emergency spending request, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the southern border. With both chambers and the White House on the line this fall, though, the party is painfully aware that an intraparty squabble with the left could materialize.

Even beyond the Progressive Caucus, key House Democratic voting blocs are riled up about the talks and airing anxiety about what the White House might concede to Republicans. The “Tri-Caucus” of groups representing minority voters is also leery of the Senate’s deal, with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus particularly outraged at its exclusion so far from the talks — though some members in Tri-Caucus groups have cracked open the door to supporting it.

“Republicans are just getting what they want on the border, but then we aren’t getting reforms on immigration. And so it doesn’t feel like there’s a give and take here,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

Some progressives see a potential border deal between Biden and Republicans as a betrayal of his promises to reverse former President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration policies.

Others outright argue the border security provisions Republicans have proposed, such as tightening asylum standards, would actually increase migration problems by increasing the number of illegal migrants. That would give further political fodder to the GOP, those Democrats say.

The deal risks resulting in “a lot more people either camped out on the Mexico side of the border or having to rely more on criminal organizations to migrate because we’re trying some ineffective, Republican-like policies,” Casar said.

White House spokesperson Andrew Bates told POLITICO in a statement that “the American people overwhelmingly agree with what President Biden underlined in his Day One reform plan: that our immigration system is broken and we have an imperative to secure the border and treat migrants with dignity.”

The intraparty tension helps explain why many Democrats are careful to put the onus on Republicans to support the mostly opaque Senate border talks, particularly as Johnson comes close to squashing the entire effort outright. Yet the tight margins in the House mean that while conservative resistance to the border deal may be louder than progressive opposition, both could prove just as perilous to a border deal.

Top Senate Democrats, meanwhile, are offering their own subtle advice to the left: Be prepared to give ground.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), his party’s lead negotiator on the border deal, predicted that “there are certainly going to be some Republicans who vote against this, and there are going to be some Democrats [who] vote against this.”

“I hope to be able to make the case that there are a lot of really important reforms to Democrats … but yes, I think this this was always going to be a true compromise,” he added.

“Obviously, this will be an issue that’s going to be discussed” during the election season, said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “That’s why it’s important for us to come to a bipartisan agreement, and certainly Democrats are willing to do that. But that means both sides gotta give.”

Speaker Mike Johnson‘s plans to get a bipartisan tax deal through the House this week are teetering on the verge of collapse after an unlikely coalition of House Republicans aired last-minute concerns during a private GOP meeting on Tuesday.

According to members who attended the meeting, Republican leaders are staring down a messy litany of complaints from both incumbents in vulnerable districts demanding state and local tax relief and conservative Freedom Caucus members who are intent on bringing border politics into the tax debate.

Then there are the lawmakers with a third type of complaint: anger that Johnson is relying on Democratic votes to pass a major piece of tax legislation in an election year.

“It’s a problem that we continue to do things under suspension of the rules,” said House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.), referring to a House maneuver that allows Johnson to pass the tax deal with a two-thirds majority rather than steer it through the conservative-dominated Rules Committee.

“I’m not going to support something that expands the Child Tax Credit, which is expanding the welfare state massively,” Good added. “And I’m not going to support tax credits, Child Tax Credits, going to illegals. I think that’s incentivizing this illegal invasion.”

Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), one of several blue-state Republicans adamantly opposed to any tax package that wouldn’t boost the state and local tax deduction, told reporters that party leaders have not yet committed to a floor vote on the deal “in its current form.” And leadership also indicated, according to LaLota, that the deal is still open to potential changes.

The state and local tax changes sought by LaLota and other so-called SALT Caucus Republicans are otherwise unpalatable to a wide swath of the Republican conference.

The grievances from those blue-state incumbents and Freedom Caucus members complicate Johnson’s path to a floor vote. The speaker indicated on Monday that he wants to take up the bipartisan tax package on the floor under the expedited process that suspension of the House rules would afford him.

“I expect that [the vote] will be this week. I expect that it will be in the next couple days,” House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who brokered the deal with Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), said on NBC Tuesday morning.

But Johnson declined to commit to any concrete timing at a press conference later in the morning. One senior House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO that a decision on when a tax vote would occur is truly up in the air.

“There’s no decision, so we’re going to wait and see right now,” the senior Republican said.

Despite the complaints from ultra-right conservatives and Republicans seeking SALT changes, plenty of moderates also praised Smith, who outlined the bill for members at the Tuesday meeting. The tax chief has shepherded the GOP through bipartisan talks that ended with an agreement to restore three popular business tax breaks, including those that would give larger research and development deductions.

“We can’t get anything that we consider perfect through this slim majority that we have and a Democrat-run Senate and a Biden White House, but it’s strong. It brings back the Trump tax cuts,” said Rep. Daniel Meuser (R-Pa.). “It’s very, very important for small business and families.”

“As far as I’m concerned, as a small business owner and chair of the Small Business Committee, we vote on it. Business needs it,” said Small Business Chair Roger Williams (R-Texas).

With Ways and Means Republicans unanimously behind Smith in their support of the tax package — plus nods of approval from both Johnson and powerful members, such as Rules Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) — the bill could still sail through the House with Democratic backing. However, some of LaLota’s allies in the SALT cause have suggested they might oppose their own leaders on unrelated rules for other legislation if they don’t get their way.

With the GOP’s slim majority, two Republicans (or less, in the event of absences) could effectively block a piece of legislation considered under a rule for debate by joining Democrats in voting against that rule.

Such a move would have been unthinkable as recently as last Congress, but conservatives have made it a more standard practice recently.

“I haven’t talked to the SALT caucus people, but I think there’s some merit to possibly raising the SALT limit,” Good said of LaLota’s concerns. “And I would be willing to consider that in exchange for not expanding the Child Tax Credit, not making it eligible for illegals to receive.”

Rep. Mike Garcia, a California representative in the SALT Caucus who would like to see some form of tax relief included in the package, dismissed the notion of tanking unrelated rules to force changes to the tax deal: “I don’t personally like that tactic. I think that’s a tactic of the Freedom Caucus.”

“As a team we should be passing rules, letting things come to the floor for a vote,” Garcia said.

Undocumented immigrants with U.S.-born children have long been able to get the credit, but other members like Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) have joined Good in calling on Republicans to further restrict eligibility.

Even if Johnson can placate his frustrated members, delay of the legislation is bound to make things more complicated for the IRS as it starts receiving tax returns for the 2024 filing season. Wyden had originally wanted to enact the tax package by Monday, which was the beginning of the filing season, but now lawmakers are aiming to pass something in the next few weeks.

The sense of urgency surrounding the tax package has grown particularly acute because low-income families tend to file their returns early. That increases the prospect that the agency itself will have to make changes to those returns so that parents can claim a second refund under an expanded version of the child credit.

Jordain Carney and Anthony Adragna contributed to this report.

It’s no longer just conservatives threatening to block floor action when they don’t get their way.

A group of four New York lawmakers threw a tranche of unrelated bills into limbo Tuesday afternoon, trying to squeeze GOP leadership to make changes to a tax proposal that Speaker Mike Johnson had hoped to pass through the chamber quickly. They were considering opposing a so-called rule vote, which would have ground floor action to a halt. It’s a tactic conservatives have embraced in recent months, when they feel leadership isn’t properly prioritizing their goals.

And while Johnson was ultimately able to stave off another episode of the near-constant chaos that consumes his thin majority, the centrist coalition is threatening to tank other bills as the talks with Johnson drag on.

“The point that has been made multiple times this Congress is that there are strength in numbers. But for us that delivered the majority, this is the issue that matters,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said, asked if the group would use a similar hardball tactic in the future.

The group of New York Republicans and members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus — who have their own issues with the tax bill — are now expected to meet with Johnson and members of the Ways & Means Committee, which negotiated the bipartisan tax bill, later Tuesday as they try to figure out a path forward.

New York Republicans want some sort of fix to State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction to go along with the tax bill, a particular burden to their constituents where property taxes are higher. One involved Republican said Johnson and others are trying to temper the tensions amid an ongoing clash between the New Yorkers and other members of leadership.

Meanwhile, members of the Freedom Caucus are privately pushing leadership to make concessions over an expansion of the child tax credit.

“We’re having conversations about some of their concerns, some of our concerns and seeing if we can get a little kumbaya,” said Freedom Caucus member Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).

House Republican leaders had been expected to call a vote on the bill this week, likely under suspension — a process that requires a two-thirds vote threshold but allows them to bypass GOP opponents by leaning on Democrats to help pass the bill.

That is leaving opponents of the tax bill looking for other points of leverage. Republicans threatening to tank their own party’s unrelated legislation has become a much more common practice this Congress, given frequent rebellions and an incredibly thin majority.

Conservative rabble rousers used the tactic under both Johnson and his predecessor Kevin McCarthy to express their displeasure over a debt deal last year and, more recently, short-term spending patches that have passed with Democratic support.

Some members left the vote shaking their heads, lamenting they can’t even do the basic practice of passing a rule these days. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) said they are “calling this the SALT rebellion.”

“It’s like the Whiskey Rebellion. Let’s see if the federal troops will crush it,” Zinke added, referring to tax protests on distilled spirits that turned violent when George Washington was president.

Katherine Tully McManus, Benjamin Guggenheim, Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu contributed reporting.

Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday savaged a bipartisan border security deal that senators are working to finalize this week, calling it insufficient to secure the southern border.

“It seems the authority to shut down the border would kick in only after as many as 5,000 illegal crossings happen a day. Why? Why would we do that?” he asked during a press conference. “That would be surrender. The goal should be zero illegal crossings a day.”

Asked about rumblings of the deal, which the speaker said he’s yet to see the text of, Johnson said: “I hope some of this is not true.” Johnson has repeatedly criticized the deal in the last week, saying in a statement it could be “dead on arrival” in the House if the rumors about its contents were true.

“What’s been suggested is in this bill is not enough to secure the border,” he added.

The bill’s advocates say that the actual amount of illegal crossings would be much lower. The Department of Homeland Security would be required to shut down illegal crossings if the daily average of encounters surpasses 5,000 migrants or if a one-day total surpasses 8,500. DHS would have the authority to shut the border down at 4,000 encounters per day, however, and Biden has signaled he would aggressively use that authority.

Once the mandatory shutdown is enforced, it would take two weeks of starkly lower illegal crossings (about 2,000) to reopen the border to crossings other than asylum appointments at ports of entry. As a result of high illegal crossing numbers, the border shutdown could continue for weeks or months until the numbers go down.

Johnson is due to deliver a floor speech on border security later on Tuesday. The speaker denied that House objections to the legislation was being done to aid former President Donald Trump in his bid to return to the White House.

“That’s absurd,” Johnson said. “We’re trying to use every ounce of leverage that we have to make sure this issue is addressed.”

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.

Battleground state senators typically slow down after winning a competitive race. But after two victories in a row, Mark Kelly is keeping his foot on the gas.

The Arizona Democrat is going all-out to help Senate Democrats keep their majority, traveling across the country to aid vulnerable colleagues. He raised $89 million for his own reelection campaign in 2022 (just two years after his first race), won both and is now trying to help his colleagues keep the majority for a third straight cycle.

“I’m not a take it easy kind of person,” he said in an interview Monday about his travels. “I’m gonna work really hard to do my part to [keep the Senate and the presidency]. And if that means traveling around, multiple times to a bunch of different states? Yeah, I’m gonna do that.”

Kelly visited two critical must-win battlegrounds over the weekend, helping raise six figures apiece for Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). In three days, he visited Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland, doing nine events.

To date, Kelly has raised or contributed more than $1.8 million for Democratic candidates and incumbents, as well as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, since the start of the cycle. He’s doing events and contributing money for state parties in battlegrounds and has been to Montana, Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin and Virginia this cycle.

That’s a lot for someone who does not run Senate Democrats’ campaign arm and is not in party leadership.

“Do I like it? Uh, I’m OK with it. I like flying the space shuttle. I like flying airplanes off of an aircraft carrier. I flew an F-16 A few months ago. I liked that. That was fun. I’m OK with this,” Kelly deadpanned when asked if he enjoys being an in-demand campaigner.

“I do enjoy getting out there. And meeting folks and helping my colleagues. I enjoy that part of it. But you know, it’s also time that I’m giving up with my grandkid.”

Democrats will need all the help they can get: They may have to run the table on their incumbents to keep the majority after Joe Manchin’s retirement.

Kelly is a disciplined campaigner, quick on his feet with few gaffes. His campaign strategy involved raising a lot of money and defining himself — and sometimes his opponents — before they know what hit them. He also found strategic ways to break with President Joe Biden.

After those tough races, he’s currently one of the better-known Senate Democrats. His biography as an astronaut, veteran and gun safety advocate married to former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) is an asset as well.

So it’s a reasonable question: Does he aspire to lead the DSCC, join leadership or maybe even look at national office? “My goal right now is to make sure we hold on to the Senate,” Kelly answered. “And that Joe Biden gets reelected. That’s what I’m working on.”

Kelly’s political formula has been successful in Arizona, though it will be hard to replicate this cycle.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) has not announced her intentions on pursuing reelection. But if she runs, Sinema would find herself in a three-way race against 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.

Kelly isn’t getting ahead of Sinema’s decision-making, but he’ll comfortably criticize Lake, who is backed by GOP leaders in Washington and unsuccessfully sought to overturn her 2022 election loss. He said that race won’t be easy but he believes his state does not “want the chaos politics.”

“Her race for governor and the aftermath, and what she has shown the people of Arizona of her character, and how she would govern? I just don’t see Arizonans electing her,” Kelly said. “We’re not a state that’s, I believe, going to be comfortable electing Kari Lake.”

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is clarifying her comments from a Sunday TV interview, when she suggested an investigation was needed into connections between the pro-ceasefire protests and Russian influence.

The California Democrat told CNN that some protestors calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war “are spontaneous and organic and sincere. Some, I think, are connected to Russia.” She did not present direct evidence for her comments. She had added that she didn’t think the protests were “plants” but thought while “some financing should be investigated” by the FBI, “apart from that, let’s just say it’s all spontaneous and sincere.”

Her office then further explained those comments Monday, saying she supported Americans’ rights to “peaceful protest.”

“Informed by three decades on the House Intelligence Committee, Speaker Pelosi is acutely aware of how foreign adversaries meddle in American politics to sow division and impact our elections, and she wants to see further investigation ahead of the 2024 election,” a Pelosi spokesperson said in a statement.

Russia had interfered in the 2016 election on behalf of Donald Trump, including through cyberattacks carried out on the DNC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the dissemination of disinformation through social media.

Pelosi’s comments had prompted some criticism from the left, with former Justice Democrats spokesperson Waleed Shahid blasting them in a statement as “unacceptable disinformation being spread by the most powerful Democratic Party leaders about the positions of the vast majority of Democratic Party voters.”

Other liberals seemed inclined to give Pelosi a pass. Former congressional candidate Brianna Wu posted on X that “Pelosi’s wording was not great” but also highlighted the need to investigate “information warfare.”

Rep. Rashida Tlaib met with President Joe Biden’s campaign manager last week as the president seeks to patch up relations with key Democratic groups, according to two people familiar with the situation.

Tlaib (D-Mich.) has been an outspoken critic of the Biden administration’s approach to the Israel-Gaza war. Her district includes the Detroit suburb of Dearborn, which has a large Arab American population.

A spokesperson for the progressive lawmaker did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Biden campaign declined to comment.

Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chávez Rodriguez, had traveled to Michigan last Friday to meet with a wide range of elected officials and local leaders ahead of the Feb. 27 primary, amid flagging support for the president among minority groups seething over the Gaza war. Some of the leaders — including Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud and Michigan state Rep. Alabas Farhat, a Democrat who represents Dearborn — publicly declined to meet with her in protest.

Tlaib, the sole Palestinian American in Congress, has publicly criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the war, prompting a generally frosty relationship between her and the White House. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre had denounced Talib’s comments at the outset of the war, in which she grieved lives lost on both sides and criticized Israel’s “apartheid government” days after the attack, as “repugnant.”

Democratic lawmakers are seeking answers from the Biden administration over its decision to greenlight a pair of recent arms sales to Israel without congressional approval.

Nineteen Democrats called the State Department’s decision to unilaterally approve two emergency sales to Israel move “highly unusual” in a letter sent to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday and obtained by POLITICO. It highlights a growing divide among Democrats, as progressives especially criticize how President Joe Biden has responded to Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war.

The lawmakers pressed for details about why the emergency sales were needed, which sidestepped the typical process that requires congressional approval, and any steps taken to mitigate civilian harm.

“It is essential for Congress to be able to conduct oversight of these arms transfers and determine whether they are consistent with humanitarian principles and U.S. law, and whether they advance or harm U.S. national security,” the lawmakers wrote, led by progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

“We appreciate that your administration has repeatedly urged the Israeli government to take additional steps to reduce civilian casualties,” the group said to Blinken. “However, we are concerned that these transfers and the administration’s evasion of congressional oversight may be inconsistent with broader U.S. foreign policy goals.”

It’s not the first time the Biden administration has faced open intraparty pushback over how it has handled Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza and mounting Palestinian civilian deaths. Biden immediately faced criticism from Democrats for leaving Congress out of the loop on the two arms sales to Israel. The chairs and ranking members of the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs committees typically must sign off on foreign weapons sales.

The State Department in December used an emergency designation to approve the sale of 14,000 tank shells to Israel valued at $106 million. That same month, it used the same process to approve a sale of primers, fuzes and charges for Israel’s 155mm artillery shells previously sold by the U.S. The sale of the shells and added equipment totaled $147 million.

State Department officials have defended the move to expedite the sales, noting they have also used the mechanism to speed up weapons transfers for Ukraine, an argument that clearly didn’t sway certain members of Congress.

The Democratic lawmakers also pressed Blinken on whether the U.S. has conducted any vetting of Israel under the Leahy Law, which bars U.S. assistance to foreign militaries that commit gross human rights violations.

“Use of a national emergency waiver does not exempt the U.S. government from assessing whether arms sales are consistent with these policies,” they argued.

In addition to Warren, the letter was signed by Sens. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Fifteen House Democrats also signed on, including Reps. Betty McCollum of Minnesota and Barbara Lee of California, the top Democrats on the House panels that control appropriations to the State Department and the Pentagon.

Oversight of arms transfers will likely be a topic of debate when senators consider a $111 billion emergency aid package for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. Democrats, led by Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, are pushing to reverse a proposal by the Biden administration that would allow officials to waive congressional notification requirements for some U.S. military aid to Israel.