Senate Republicans are threatening to block a bipartisan tax deal passed Wednesday night by the House — unless they get a chance to change the legislation.

Despite getting 357 votes in the lower chamber, Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said the legislation will not be able to clear a filibuster without amendment votes that allow Senate Republicans some say on the deal. The agreement was primarily devised by House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), leaving members of the Senate minority frustrated over aspects of the deal.

Thune said the expanded Child Tax Credit in the deal is the biggest issue for the GOP, citing “delinking the CTC from the work requirement, which gives a lot of our folks heartburn.”

“We need a process that allows for some amendments to try and tweak and fix some of the issues,” Thune said. “That could be on the floor and create a floor process that allows for some amendment votes. Or ideally [in the] Senate Finance Committee.”

If Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tries to pass the bill without an amendment process, Thune warned “he won’t get 60.”

Wyden entered Schumer’s office on Thursday afternoon to discuss next steps. He declined to say whether lawmakers would attach it to a spending bill or other legislation but wants to continue talking through how to finish the job with Senate Republicans.

“There are 357 reasons to feel good this morning,” Wyden said of the successful House vote. “What I do is continue to talk to Senate Republicans about how to proceed.”

Lead Democratic negotiator Sen. Chris Murphy is officially “getting worried” about the prospects of a border security agreement coming together, saying Republicans are unwilling to pony up necessary funding for the deal.

“Every day that goes by in which they don’t commit to funding the deal is a day that we’re closer to their decision being made in favor of Donald Trump,” Murphy said, referring to the former president’s public opposition to any agreement passing Congress. “If you want to stand up a new emergency power at the border, you have to fund it — that doesn’t happen for free. If you want to dramatically shorten the asylum processing time, you have to fund it, that doesn’t happen for free.”

He summed up his view of the situation: “You can’t support the text of our deal if you’re not supporting the funding behind it.”

The Connecticut Democrat is still trying to push the compromise forward, arguing it would amount to political malpractice not to vote on the border deal they’ve worked so long on. Meanwhile, some lawmakers are openly floating a separate vote on aid to Ukraine or Israel.

“It’s wild to me that after working for four months to get a breakthrough deal to fix the border Republicans are talking about walking away from it, just because Donald Trump doesn’t like it,” he said. “That’s ridiculous.”

Republicans, for their part, have called on President Joe Biden to use his existing powers to steam the flow of migrants coming into the country illegally.

Lead GOP negotiator Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) sounded more optimistic generally on Thursday, saying he was “doubtful” bill text would be released that day but that he was hopeful it would emerge as quickly as possible.

“I’m trying to get it out as fast as we can possibly get it out,” he said. “There is no one who wants it out faster than me.”

Lankford said he would continue working remotely on the deal this weekend, but he would not be in Washington. When asked if the lack of bill text had become a liability, he said that was true “four weeks ago.” He conceded it would still be a “difficult lift” to pass the legislation once language is finalized.

Asked separately what would happen if the House ultimately didn’t pass the legislation, Lankford said: “I have no idea, my job wasn’t plan B. My job was plan A.”

Daniella Diaz contributed.

Democrats are favored to pick up a seat in deep-red Alabama later this year. But with just a month to go until the primary in the 2nd Congressional District, it’s unclear who their nominee will be.

An internal poll, first shared with POLITICO and conducted by Lester & Associates for Democrat Shomari Figures’ campaign, shows no candidate in the crowded Democratic primary remotely close to the more than 50 percent needed to win the primary outright. If no candidate secures a majority on March 5 — which is unlikely, given 11 candidates are on the ballot — a runoff will be held on April 16.

State Rep. Napoleon Bracy has 16 percent of support in the poll. Figures, a former deputy chief of staff and counselor to Attorney General Merrick Garland, is not far behind with 13 percent.

The rest of the candidates in the poll — many of whom are local elected officials — register in the single-digits. State House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels has 8 percent; state Sen. Merika Coleman has 6 percent; NAACP Alabama State Conference executive director James Averhart has 4 percent; state Rep. Jeremy Gray has 3 percent; and state Rep. Juandalynn Givan has 1 percent.

Forty-nine percent of respondents were undecided, meaning that there’s plenty of room for that standing to change.

Figures outraised Bracy by more than $100,000, according to campaign finance filings this week covering the last three months of 2023.

Dems’ Alabama opportunity: Alabama’s congressional map was redrawn last fall after federal judges ruled that lines drawn by the GOP-dominated state legislature likely violated the Voting Rights Act by weakening the power of Black voters, who make up about one-quarter of the state’s population. Newly drawn AL-02 has a Black voting age population of just under 49 percent.

Republican Rep. Barry Moore, who currently represents AL-02, was drawn out of this district and now faces a contentious member-vs.-member primary with Rep. Jerry Carl in AL-01.

Despite Democrats’ strong position to add a seat, Republicans aren’t ceding it entirely: Former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker and attorney Caroleene Dobson have both been active on the airwaves, and each has already loaned their campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars, according to recent campaign finance filings.

The survey includes 400 likely Democratic primary voters, and was conducted Jan. 19-24 via telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

When Mitch McConnell appointed James Lankford to lead bipartisan negotiations on immigration in the fall, it seemed a good bet to unite the fractious GOP: The Oklahoman is popular within the party, known as an even-keeled conservative.

Now Lankford is watching his deal with Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) run into a systematic conservative assault led by Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump. At least he’s keeping his sense of humor intact, quipping on Wednesday that whether he’s still well-liked is up for debate these days: “Used to be.”

It’s not just his policy proposals on the line, but his reputation among Republicans. Lankford himself is becoming a target, facing criticism from Republicans back in Oklahoma and public — if indirect — skepticism of his deal-making acumen from many conservatives whom he’s usually aligned with.

“It’s been exceptionally frustrating,” Lankford said on Wednesday, as he tries to privately assure senators that a bill whose text remains under wraps is actually quite conservative. “Everybody’s saying: ‘prove me wrong on this. Here’s this Internet rumor, prove this is wrong.’ The only way to do that is to get the text.”

With a shock of red hair and baritone twang, the Oklahoman has faced off with his party’s right flank before. In fact, he won his Senate seat over a candidate who had the support of Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sarah Palin. Before that, he won his House seat in the tea party wave of 2010 — and prior to entering politics he ran a Baptist conference center and youth camp.

Lankford’s current position, however, is more politically painful than any he’s been in before.

Back in 2018, when he was involved in failed border talks that included the more progressive notion of giving some young immigrants a pathway to citizenship, Lankford withdrew after seeing a deal develop that he couldn’t support. This time, he’s standing firm in defense of a bipartisan deal — at odds with a growing number of his own colleagues.

His allies said they are frustrated with the way some corners of the party are treating Lankford.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said Republicans are turning on him “because it’s more convenient politically than explaining the merits of it … that’s frustrating to me.” And Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said Lankford “has not deserved the criticism.”

“He’s taking a lot of incoming. Occasionally you do that when you think you’re onto something,” said Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).

The Republican frustration with the legislation may only grow. Lankford faced a new round of questions on Wednesday from fellow GOP senators about the details of a deal he is fighting to save, according to attendees of the party lunch. He was asked how the bill works and to clear up the notion — which Lankford and fellow negotiators call “misinformation” — that it greenlights 5,000 illegal border crossings a day.

The mood inside the room was “antsy,” said Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.).

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said after the lunch that “this conversation is on a loop.”

“It’s the same thing over and over and over … what we keep hearing is ‘well, that’s not in the bill.’ Well, let’s see the bill,” Hawley added.

The deal’s writers say a border shutdown would kick in at 5,000 daily crossings under their agreement, and anyone without a valid asylum claim would be expelled. Far from allowing thousands into the country, they say it would do the precise opposite.

Yet the criticism of the bill’s handling of illegal crossings has taken firm root on the right, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to parry without ironclad bill text.

Which makes Lankford’s plight trickier by the hour. As he tried to soothe his party’s concerns, Trump was across town in Washington criticizing the bill for its border shutdown trigger and saying senators who support it are making a “terrible mistake.”

Trump asked pointedly: “Who is negotiating this bill?”

Lankford said that he has not spoken to Trump lately, in part because he knew he would be asked incessantly about that conversation by reporters if he did dial up the former president. He has spoken to Speaker Mike Johnson, though not recently.

Johnson has not been much kinder to the deal than Trump.

He slashed at the bill as “madness” on Wednesday in a rare floor speech. Lankford responded with trademark deadpan wit, joking about “when Abraham Lincoln said, ‘don’t believe everything you read on the Internet.’”

Within the Senate, Lankford’s used a personal touch to keep his work on track. He’s met with all 48 of his Republican colleagues one-on-one and speaks constantly in party meetings to counter attacks on his legislation. He also took to the Sunday show circuit over the weekend.

McConnell called Lankford’s work “extraordinary” and argued his legislation would produce an improvement over the status quo. That won’t be enough for many in the GOP, who are opposing the deal from all angles: Some don’t want Ukraine aid that would be attached, while others only want the hardline House-passed border bill.

“He got put in a bad situation,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) The former college football coach said Lankford’s negotiating position was like being “30 points down going into the fourth quarter.”

There is still no bill text, nor is there a guarantee that it will be released in time for the Senate to hold a vote before an impending recess. As Trump gains influence by the day in the GOP, many Republicans are so confident about a victory in the fall that they feel they can wait until he’s president to take action on the border.

That’s not how Lankford sees it.

“We’ll still have gaps and openness in the border a decade from now if we don’t resolve it now,” he said. “This kind of moment doesn’t come very often. When it comes, we have to have a longer look than 10 months from now.”

Katherine Tully-McManus and Gavin Bade contributed to this report.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s trouble with the tax legislation is showcasing his now-favored strategy on tough bills: Bypass intraparty opposition, rely on Democratic help if necessary and force the vote through.

And the vast majority of his conference seems OK with that — at least for now.

Johnson spent days trying to sell the House GOP on the tax bill, taking fire from both centrists and conservatives over various provisions. One coalition threatened to shut down the House floor Tuesday over their concerns, with multiple lawmakers telling reporters that they understood the bill was subject to changes.

Less than 24 hours later, Johnson scheduled a floor vote on the legislation as is, under a process that requires a two-thirds majority and, therefore, widespread Democratic support.

“If this comes to the House floor, it’s gonna pass with over 300 votes,” said Rep. Darin Lahood (R-Ill.). “There’s broad support for it.”

The strategy mirrors the maneuvers Johnson has used to get out of similar squeezes on a recent short-term spending patch and last year’s sweeping defense policy bill, both of which sparked backlash from his right flank. And given divisions within his own conference and his slim two-vote majority, he’ll likely replicate it before the looming back-to-back March government funding deadlines.

Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) likened the tax bill to making breakfast — that everyone had wanted a serving of eggs, but that Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) had served them scrambled while others might have wanted an omelet.

“I think everybody generally is like, ‘Hey, this is a good thing.’ But you got to figure how to put it together,” Amodei said, emphasizing the Republican conference needed to remember how to treat legislating as a team sport, rather than looking out solely for their own district’s interests.

Even some conservatives are understanding of the bind Johnson is in, even as they’ve repeatedly criticized him for not prioritizing his right flank’s interests. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, said the speaker’s willingness to leapfrog his own members to pass major bills is a “concern”— though he noted that he trusts Johnson more than his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.

“I was hoping he would go through Rules. But he doesn’t think he could pass it. He’s scared of a shutdown over this vote,” Norman added, referring to the typical process that requires the Rules Committee approval before measures go to the House floor.

Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.), asked about Johnson’s use of so-called suspension votes, which bypass the Rules Committee, added: “Obviously everybody can see that it’s a trend.”

Good and Norman, as well as other House conservatives, have bristled over the tax bill due to an expansion of the child tax credit. Johnson met with members of the Freedom Caucus on Tuesday but Good said in a brief interview on Wednesday that they hadn’t found a resolution.

But Johnson appears to have assuaged a coalition of New York Republicans who threatened to halt floor action this week. The blue-state gang were pushing leadership for a fix to the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT, which particularly afflicts states with high property taxes.

The tax bill will get a vote on Wednesday night without any changes, but leadership agreed to hold a vote on the floor next week to increase the cap on SALT deductions for married couples who file taxes jointly, a person familiar with the deal confirmed.

One Republican familiar with the clash said they think the New Yorkers got “a win” and expect them to support the tax bill on the floor. Hours before the scheduled vote Wednesday night, Johnson endorsed the deal in a statement — after seemingly keeping it at arm’s length when the bipartisan agreement first rolled out.

“The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is important bipartisan legislation to revive conservative pro-growth tax reform,” Johnson said in a statement. “Crucially, the bill also ends a wasteful COVID-era program, saving taxpayers tens of billions of dollars.”

The Capitol Visitor’s Center has reported Rep. Rich McCormick to the House sergeant at arms, according to an email reviewed by POLITICO, accusing him of “unsafe actions” while on a tour of the Capitol’s dome Tuesday and doing pull-ups on railings suspended hundreds of feet above the ground.

The Georgia Republican went beyond a posted sign reading “no person permitted above this platform under any circumstances,” according to the email, and went over a safety railing at the “Tholos level” of the Capitol dome, more than 200 feet in the air. Staff photographed him straddling the railing and pretending to fall or slide over, the email said, and recorded him bypassing the safety signage.

He also reached up above the Tholos level to grab a crossbar and do multiple pull ups while his staff filmed, according to the account.

“There was a miscommunication and we have apologized,” McCormick spokesperson Julie Singleton told POLITICO.

McCormick has a reputation around Capitol Hill for being adventurous, including skateboarding through the Cannon tunnel, a path that connects the Capitol to House office buildings, and playing football against Capitol Police.

Tour guides in the Capitol Visitor’s Center don’t have the authority to intervene in any actions by members of Congress, but the guide leading McCormick’s tour did pass along his and his staff’s behavior to superiors, who then alerted the House sergeant at arms. It’s unclear what punitive steps the sergeant at arms could take against McCormick.

Kyrsten Sinema on Tuesday forcefully defended the border agreement she’s reached with both parties, calling conservative attacks on the bill “misinformation” and explaining in detail how the deal would curb illegal crossings.

The Arizona Independent rebutted the argument by some conservative lawmakers that the Senate deal’s emergency border shutdown power — which is set to kick in automatically at an average of 5,000 border encounters a day — would green-light thousands of illegal crossings. Those new expulsion authorities would end the government’s “catch and release” operations, asylum screenings would accelerate and Congress would limit the use of parole authority for southern border crossings, she said.

“The rumors that are swirling about what this legislation does are wrong. Our bill ends catch and release. It ensures that the government both has the power and must close down the border during times when our system is overwhelmed. And it creates new structures to ensure that folks who do not qualify for asylum cannot enter the country and stay here,” Sinema told reporters.

Her rare public comments come at a critical moment for the legislation, which is under unceasing attack from the right and former President Donald Trump. Speaker Mike Johnson is telling his members that the House will not take the bill up and attacking its border shutdown power; Sinema called attacks on that shutdown trigger “the largest piece of misinformation out there.”

She then explained in great detail why the pact she’s set to release with fellow Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) would reshape the country’s handling of the southern border and push down crossings that can crest over 10,000 a day.

“The idea that people — ‘illegals’ — are coming into the country, 5,000 a day: Factually false,” she said.

Under the terms of the still-unreleased deal, if the border is shut down, asylum seekers could still make claims at ports of entry and would have 90 days in which to make an asylum interview. If those interviews are successful, asylum seekers can still be in the country until their case is decided, which would take 90 days. A failed interview would result in immediate removal, Sinema said.

Those who claim asylum at places other than ports of entry would be detained immediately under the deal, with their asylum claim decided in detention. Those individuals would be removed within 15 days if they fail their interview. Those who qualify for asylum, which would require meeting a higher standard if the legislation is enacted, would receive a work permit and potentially a path to citizenship, Sinema said.

“They are going to two places: Detention or a short term alternative to detention, which includes monitoring by the government, until their claims are adjudicated. And then they’re either removed or set on a path to to become asylees,” Sinema said of the new process.

She also said the bill text would be released “very, very soon” and that she expected to see a vote on the legislation, even as many Republicans are balking. Sinema said Johnson’s team is aware of the particulars of the bill even as he publicly attacks the legislation.

“I would like to see a vote as soon as possible. And that’s what I would urge. I don’t control the floor,” Sinema said. “But I hope that we vote as soon as this package is public — with enough time for senators to read of course.”

Right-wing corners of social media currently contain plenty of unfounded conspiracy theories about the Super Bowl, NFL, Taylor Swift psyops and Joe Biden. But some conservative senators aren’t having any of it.

“There’s no truth whatsoever,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a former college football coach. “Football is football. Hopefully we stay closer to that than we can all this social media.”

He added: “I don’t think it’s gonna make any difference in this election.”

It was a sentiment shared by Senate supporters of Swift’s boyfriend Travis Kelce and his Kansas City Chiefs, who will head to Las Vegas to face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11.

“If they’re both in love, good for them, and I have a 13-year-old that’s a huge Taylor Swift fan,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), a staunch Chiefs fan. “She’s a pop star and she’s got a boyfriend who plays for the Chiefs, and I don’t probably [need to] overcomplicate things.”

That’s also the view of Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who wore a Chiefs tie to Senate votes Wednesday.

“That’s all nonsense,” he told POLITICO. “Everyone should embrace the Travis and Tay-Tay story. I think it’s a great story, an American love story, something that Walt Disney wrote. So we just wish them the best. I think it’s great for the NFL.”

He added of Swift’s past support for Democratic politicians and causes: “I think I’m able to separate politics from football, from entertainment.”