President Joe Biden vowed last week that he would take another stab at trying to pass border security legislation that had been axed during negotiations over his foreign aid package.

It was news to those involved in the first round of negotiations over the bill.

Talks around resuscitating the bipartisan border compromise that senators struck in February have been nonexistent in Washington. And despite the president’s proclamation, administration officials and immigration policy experts both say it’s highly unlikely any legislative momentum for border security materializes between now and November.

“They pulled a rabbit out of a hat on Ukraine, but there’s no chance they’re getting anything out of Mike Johnson’s House on border security,” said an immigration advocate familiar with the White House’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with administration officials. “They’ve known that since December, when they realized they had to count votes in the House. There’s no chance of legislation on this, and they know that. It’s rhetorical posturing.”

Biden’s comments last week underscored the administration’s desire to try and turn the politics of the border — long an albatross for Democrats — into something more advantageous. After former President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers tanked the compromise bill, the White House moved to put blame for the crisis at their feet. The president has openly weighed the possibility of taking executive action and, as he did upon signing the foreign aid bill, talked up the need to revisit the legislation.

“I proposed and negotiated and agreed to the strongest border security bill this country has ever, ever, ever seen,” he said last week, speaking about its exclusion from the foreign aid package. “It was bipartisan. It should have been included in this bill, and I’m determined to get it done for the American people.”

But, in reality, there’s been no behind-the-scenes jockeying from the White House to restart talks, in part because the White House believes that the migration crisis has temporarily stabilized, with illegal border crossings dipping again in March to 137,000.

While talks may be currently dormant, that doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t be restarted. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has a number of moderate members of his party up for reelection this year, some of whom are pushing for him to bring the bill to the floor again.

“We’re not leaving border alone, we’re going to come back to it,” Schumer said in an interview this week, echoing the president.

But another attempt at action in the Senate would run into the same hurdles as last time: Trump’s opposition and dim prospects in a Republican-run House.

“My colleagues said it wasn’t good enough. And then, our nominee for president said: I don’t want you to do anything because this is my best issue going into November,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell lamented last week.

That outlook, in turn, has left the White House weighing new executive actions, including restrictions on asylum. Administration officials have held a number of meetings on the new policies this week, spurring chatter that the announcements could be coming soon. But five people close to the administration, who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with administration officials, say the timeline remains murky. The White House is weighing both the political optics of moving forward unilaterally and questions about whether some of the actions it takes would pass legal muster.

“I think everything is in pencil,” said a former administration official. “Nothing is in Sharpie.”

The administration has been crafting an executive action that would include using a section of the Immigration and Nationality Act to bar migrants from seeking asylum in between U.S. ports of entry. Like the border legislation, the directive would likely be tied to a trigger, coming into effect after a certain number of illegal crossings took place, said the five people close to the administration. The order would also make it more difficult for migrants to pass the initial screening for seeking asylum, as well as ways to quickly deport those who don’t meet those elevated asylum standards.

Border crossings dropped by 50 percent in January and have since remained stable, creating a belief among administration officials that the president has more space to deal with the issue. Increased enforcement on the Mexican side of the border, which began after Biden administration officials traveled to meet with counterparts in December, has helped alleviate some of the political pressure in the U.S.

While it has been reported that the White House would make the moves by late April, it’s still expected that the administration will roll out the new policies when border numbers rise again.

“Because otherwise, it would be like a tree falling in the forest with no one to hear it,” said another advocate familiar with the White House’s thinking. “Unless something’s happening at the border, people don’t pay as much attention.”

In addition to combating political pressure on the right, some Democrats have also expressed concerns that Biden hasn’t done enough to draw contrast with Trump on the immigration issue. New polls have shown that voters prefer a balanced approach to the border — a mix of border security measures and actions that protect Dreamers and other immigrants who have been in the United States for an extended period of time. Along those lines, administration officials are discussing potential actions they can take for undocumented people who have long resided in the United States. One idea that has been floated among administration officials is opening access to the cancellation of removal program for people who have lived in the U.S. for over 10 years and have citizen or resident relatives who would “suffer” if they were deported. But the biggest debate is around whether or not Biden should provide temporary legal status and work permits to undocumented immigrants in the U.S. who are married to American citizens, an estimated 1.1 million people.

Immigration groups have been pushing the White House on this move, suggesting it could energize Democrats ahead of the November election, like former President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program did in June 2012. But there are also concerns among some administration officials that it could spur more political blowback on an already vexing issue for the president, particularly if border numbers creep up again.

“That’s where the conversation is probably being had most thoroughly is, ‘OK, is there a political consequence to this, or should we wait for a second term?’” said a former administration official. “It’s not like this idea has an expiration date. He could do this or look at it in the future, where the political space might be greater.”

Burgess Everett contributed to this report. 

Karen Pierce, Britain’s ambassador to the United States, told a Washington gathering Thursday night that she would “have to be dragged out of here by my fingernails.” That was a disarming quip for a crowd gathered to launch White House Correspondents Dinner weekend in the opulent gardens of the British embassy. It was, however, closer to the truth than Pierce’s cheery brand of diplomatic caution acknowledged.

Speaking about her time in office at a special recording of POLITICO’s Power Play podcast in front of a live audience at the embassy, Pierce refused to speculate about why an announcement of her successor, expected in senior diplomacy circles in both London and Washington this week, has not been made.

A convivial figure on the ambassadorial circuit in Washington since her arrival in 2020, Pierce judged her words carefully: “I think the next ambassador will arrive in early 2025, and I will stay till then.”

The uncertainty about who will next occupy the grand residence of 1300 Massachusetts Avenue is the result of a stand-off between British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak — who decided to appoint Tim Barrow, a career diplomat who has served in Moscow and as the top representee to the EU during Brexit — and the Labour party, which is likely to form the next U.K. government.

Officials in London and Washington have been riveted by the saga of a putative successor to Pierce. The current U.K. national security adviser, Barrow was slated to be announced as the winner of a swiftly conducted internal Foreign and Commonwealth Office contest for the plumb role, but so far there has been silence.

“All the signs were that this was about to happen,” said a person with knowledge of the process who was not authorized to speak publicly. “Then nothing. We were all very surprised.”

Sunak’s timely transition plan for the ambassadorship was intended to signal continuity in trans-Atlantic foreign and security policy, given uncertainty about implications for Ukraine and the Middle East policy depending on whether President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump will be in charge when the newcomer presents credentials early in 2025.

Britain’s prime minister came close to confirming the intended appointment when questioned by reporters on a trip to Warsaw earlier this week, claiming that it was “entirely normal, entirely keeping with precedent” to appoint ambassadors well ahead of their start date to help them “acclimatize” and build relationships in their next job. He also confirmed that a successor in the national security role from the defense staff had been appointed.

But the opposition Labour party has objected to naming a new key envoy so close to a general election — likely to be held by the end of this year, and with the opposition party now far ahead in the polls. A person with close knowledge of the Labour party confirmed that there has been “consternation” at the move and argued that a significant post should fall within the remit of the incoming government.

The stand-off has led to speculation that Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, might even ask for the appointment process to be rerun if he becomes Britain’s next leader.

Asked if the handover was turning out to be unusually eventful, Pierce on Thursday deployed a wry guillotine. “The Foreign Office is very boring about two things and two things only,” she said. “One is that it does not reveal the contents of diplomatic conversations, and we don’t comment on future appointments.”

But she paid tribute to congressional leaders for supporting the passage of $61 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine. The package, which was part of a wider raft of support for Israel and Taiwan, was signed by Biden this week. “The central message, which is going to give Ukraine a huge psychological boost,” Pierce said, “is that America is behind her, and Congress is behind her, and our will to support Ukraine is undimmed.”

“So, I salute the congressional leadership in the House and in the Senate on both sides … and it’s a collective expression of our determination to push back on President Putin’s ambitions.”

Asked about perceptions in Washington of the volatility in British politics in the last two years — including three prime ministers in the space of three months — the ambassador was diplomatic.

“There was a little bit of a wry smile on the faces of some American politicians when we had that quick turnover of prime ministers, because it’s not what you think of when you think of British politics,” she reflected. “On the contrary, you think of something solid that doesn’t change very much for years. But we’re through all that.”

Listen to Ambassador Pierce’s conversation with POLITICO Power Play host Anne McElvoy here:

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Rep. Bill Posey (R-Fla.) abruptly announced on Friday that he will not seek reelection, after initially planning to run for another term.

Posey’s announcement — if made earlier — could have easily attracted a spirited Republican primary, with politicians from the state’s Space Coast region already eyeing the seat once Posey retired. Florida’s 8th congressional district is a solid Republican seat.

Instead the 76-year-old incumbent’s announcement came shortly after qualifying officially ended and after his hand-picked replacement — former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos — had already quietly jumped into the race.

In a statement posted online, Posey said that he was “looking forward to another spirited campaign for a final term in office. However, earlier this week circumstances beyond my control now require me to suspend my re-election campaign.”

Posey did not elaborate what caused his turnabout. He’s one of roughly two dozen Republican incumbents not returning to the lower chamber next year — all in safe seats — an unusually high number for a party in the majority.

“Without going into a lot of personal details, stars aligned during the past week and Mike decided he was ready for Congress,” Posey said. “I enthusiastically endorse him and will do everything I can to help him get elected.”

Posey, who had been in the Florida Legislature for 18 years prior to running for Congress in 2008, was a supporter of former President Donald Trump and usually stood aligned with the Republican majority. But he recently vote against the foreign aid package supported by Speaker Mike Johnson, and he also opposed reauthorizing a contentious surveillance program.

In his first term in office, Posey tried to pass a bill requiring that future presidential candidates produce a copy of their original birth certificate — a measure sparked by conspiracy theories surrounding President Barack Obama. Posey was ridiculed by late night comics for the move.

While he was in the Legislature, Posey was one of the main sponsors of the legislation that overhauled Florida’s voting system in the aftermath of the chaotic 2000 presidential recount.

Haridopolos — a former legislator turned lobbyist who served a two-year term as Senate president starting in 2010 — is one of three Republicans who qualified for the seat. But he will enter the contest with a likely advantage. Several top Florida Republicans — including Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis — have already endorsed Haridopolos.

The U.S. is putting the finishing touches on one of its largest Ukraine military aid packages to date, preparing to ink contracts for as much as $6 billion worth of weapons and equipment for Kyiv’s forces, according to two U.S. officials.

The package, which could be finalized and announced as soon as Friday, will dip into the $61 billion in Ukraine funding signed into law by President Joe Biden on Wednesday. It would include Patriot air defense systems, artillery ammunition, drones, counter-drone weapons, and air-to-air missiles to be fitted on fighter planes, according to one of the officials and a third person familiar with the planning.

The equipment likely won’t arrive in Ukraine for several years, as the money is being allocated under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which issues contracts to American defense firms to build new equipment for Ukraine, as opposed to drawing from current U.S. stocks.

President Joe Biden and Speaker Mike Johnson built an unlikely working relationship in recent months — a partnership that handed Biden a pivotal foreign policy victory and surprised much of Washington, which assumed nothing at all would get done.

But that relationship remains one of convenience. And as congressional Democrats debate whether to prop up Johnson’s speakership amid threats from Republicans looking to oust him, Biden is signaling that he’s going to stay out of it.

The White House will instead leave it up to House Democratic leaders to determine whether to rescue Johnson or let Republicans once again devour their own and pitch the chamber back into chaos.

Within the West Wing, the prevailing belief is that Biden has already gotten everything he could have asked for from Johnson’s brief time as speaker — and that, even if he felt compelled to pay him back, any involvement in a high-stakes speakership fight would hurt, not help.

So he’s staying away. The president has so far refrained from advising House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries on what to do should conservatives try to oust Johnson, aides said. He has offered no assurances about the future in his calls with the Speaker. And after clinching a deal to send billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, Biden aides believe the House has largely finished its major legislative activity for the year.

“It benefits him politically to have engaged in this negotiation, gotten a bipartisan result and looked like a leader in the U.S. and on the world stage,” said one Democratic strategist in touch with House leadership, who was granted anonymity to freely discuss party dynamics. “Turning around and weighing in one way or another distracts from that win.”

The president’s hands-off approach comes despite Johnson’s decision to work with the administration to pass billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. That work fulfilled a top Biden administration priority, but also enraged a handful of conservative lawmakers who are now intent on forcing Johnson out, in part over the unlikely working relationship he carved out with the Democratic president over the past six months.

A staunch conservative closely aligned with former President Donald Trump, Johnson nevertheless built something of a rapport between his office and senior Biden officials.

The two sides tightroped through a monthslong federal funding fight, managing at every turn to keep the government open. They made a joint push to pass a controversial bill reauthorizing surveillance authorities. And after months of stalled talks, Johnson backed a sweeping foreign aid package that sent funds to Ukraine over the objections of much of the GOP conference.

The agreements eroded Johnson’s support among some of the Republicans who installed him. But they won grudging respect among senior White House officials who knew Johnson was putting himself in danger by even considering a Ukraine aid package. The threat of a motion to vacate underpinned the negotiations between Johnson and Biden aides, who sought to balance the urgency of the matter against the likelihood it would destabilize Johnson’s ability to lead the GOP conference. His actions also impressed many Democratic lawmakers, who have since indicated they’re inclined to help keep him in charge of the House.

“Once you assume the chair, you become an adult and you have to act like an adult, and he did it,” said one adviser to the White House, who was also granted anonymity to discuss sensitive political relations. “Now, even though he’s going with the overwhelming majority of his members, he’s still at risk of losing his job.”

The White House’s view of Johnson as a good-faith operator stands in sharp contrast to senior aides’ opinion of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, who they regarded as fickle and often unreliable in the lead-up to his ouster last fall.

Yet Biden aides emphasized they won’t try to sway whatever political fate awaits the speaker. The White House is wary of appearing to undermine Jeffries’ authority over his conference, and Biden aides have grown to trust the Democratic leader’s instincts after watching him navigate the chaotic events of the past year.

There are a number of other political variables that could affect Biden’s view of Johnson’s speakership in the lead up to the November election. Among them, he has little that he needs to accomplish legislatively before November, meaning there’s no immediate urgency for stability in the House. In addition, some Biden allies argue that there is a political incentive for Democrats to allow the GOP to self-destruct. With the U.S. embroiled in two major wars, though, others believe it’s critical the House remain functional enough to respond to a sudden emergency. It took Republicans three weeks and a half-dozen votes to settle on Johnson as speaker after ousting McCarthy. Many in the GOP expect a sequel to be just as painful, if not more so.

There’s also the overarching truism that even if Biden did feel strongly about Johnson’s fate, any attempt to engineer an outcome could easily backfire, unifying Republicans against the White House and dividing the Democratic conference in one fell swoop.

“I don’t think there’s anything left that the president feels he has to get done by Election Day,” said the adviser to the White House. “They’re worrying about how do we cement our position in November?”

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said following the House vote on the foreign aid package that the administration would stick to its blanket policy against opining on congressional leadership battles, adding that the question of whether to protect Johnson is for Jeffries and his conference to decide.

“We do not get involved,” she said.

Jeffries has been reluctant to commit to saving Johnson, and said during a press conference last week White House officials haven’t weighed in on the potential upcoming decision.

“They have not,” made an argument one way or another, Jeffries said. “That was also the case in October of last year” when Democrats did not save McCarthy.

But within his conference, several Democrats say they favor shielding the speaker from his own party — a reality that Jeffries acknowledged as far back as February.

Many House Democrats believe Johnson displayed his mettle in supporting Ukraine aid, lawmakers and aides said, and deserves to remain in the job. They have little appetite for enduring the bedlam that would ensue if the House were suddenly speakerless once again.

Politically, some argue, Democrats benefit from showing they’re the responsible adults in the room and will be rewarded for crossing the aisle to oppose the GOP’s most extreme tendencies. Personally, they acknowledge, it may simply feel good to deal a resounding loss to antagonists like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a now vocal Johnson critic.

“It’s a low-risk play for Democrats, with some upsides,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at centrist Democratic think tank Third Way. “There’s a yearning for some normalcy if you’re a member, and to leave the wartime footing.”

That view isn’t unanimous, especially among those who now feel Johnson is getting outsized credit for doing what in their estimation was the bare minimum.

“No one should confuse Mike Johnson with a profile in courage or a great hero for doing the right thing after everything else failed,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).

Others note that Johnson has yet to back off other efforts to damage the White House, including his support for the impeachment investigation into Biden. Not moving to prevent his ouster would derail the rest of the GOP’s objectives.

“If part of the Republican caucus wants to fire bullets at the other party of the Republican caucus, why would we get in the way of that?” said the Democratic strategist in touch with House leadership. “Chaos is our friend. Republican dysfunction is our friend. Who is not our friend is Mike Johnson.”

Those deliberations are only likely to intensify when the House returns next week, setting the stage for Greene to officially challenge Johnson over his job. But the White House insists it won’t be part of those discussions — and across the spectrum, from Johnson’s staunchest opponents to his closest allies, there’s broad agreement that’s probably for the best.

“Anything that Biden said positive about any Republican,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who is close with his former colleagues in the House and supports Johnson, “is not good.”

Donald Payne Jr., a member of a prominent Newark political family who represented the city and nearby communities in Congress for over 11 years, died Wednesday following a heart attack brought on by complications from diabetes, his office said.

Payne, 65, entered Congress somewhat reluctantly in 2012 following the death of his father, Rep. Donald Payne Sr., who was the first Black person elected to Congress in New Jersey and who became one of the city’s luminaries during his more than two decades in Congress.

Though he never developed the high profile of his father and was stricken with health problems during the last several years that led to him to frequently vote by proxy, Payne Jr. was well-liked by his colleagues and served as chair and ranking member of the House Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials.

On that committee, he was instrumental in securing funding for the biggest infrastructure project in the state: The Gateway Project to replace the dilapidated century-old train tunnels between New Jersey and Manhattan.

“It was my great honor to work side-by-side with Donald to build a stronger and fairer New Jersey, and we will hold his memory close to our hearts as we build upon the Payne family’s deep legacy of service in advocating for the communities they served so dearly,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in a statement announcing the congressman’s death.

Payne’s district, which includes parts of Essex, Hudson and Union counties, is one of the most heavily Democratic in the country. Primary ballots were due to be mailed on April 20, so his name will remain on the ballot. His successor as a general election candidate is expected be determined by members of the Democratic county committees in the towns covered by his district.

The governor has the authority to call a special election to replace Payne for the remainder of his current term. When his father died in March 2012, then-Gov. Chris Christie called a special election for that November to coincide with the regularly-scheduled general election.

While in Congress, Payne emphasized expanding access to health care.

In 2021, he sponsored legislation to promote screening for colorectal cancer, the cause of his father’s death. Last year, he introduced the Amputation Reduction and Compassion Act to promote screenings for peripheral arterial disease with the aim of reducing amputations brought about by the condition, which is often associated with diabetes.

Payne is survived by his wife Beatrice and their three adult triplets: Donald III, Jack and Yvonne.

The Payne family is one of the most prominent in Newark politics. In addition to Donald Payne Sr.’s time in Congress, Payne Jr.’s uncle William and cousin Craig Stanley both served lengthy tenures in the New Jersey Assembly.

Payne Jr., a Hillside High graduate who grew up on Newark’s Bock Avenue and lived on the street his entire life, began his political career as a teenager when he founded the South Ward Junior Democrats.

He began working in government in 1990 with the former New Jersey Highway Authority, then with the Essex County Educational Services Commission from 1996 until 2006, where he served as supervisor of student transportation.

“As a former union worker and toll collector, he deeply understood the struggles our working families face, and he fought valiantly to serve their needs, every single day,” Murphy said. “That purpose was the light that guided him through his early years as Newark City Council President and during his tenure on the Essex County Board of Commissioners. And it guided him still through his more than a decade of service in Congress.”

Payne was first elected to office in 2005 as an at-large Essex County freeholder, and just months later successfully ran for an at-large seat on the Newark City Council. That was shortly before New Jersey banned dual office-holding for most politicians. Payne remained in both positions — he was elevated to Newark council president in 2010 — until his father’s death and his election to Congress.

Payne often cut a unique image on the House floor with his colorful dress and bow ties.

“Always dressed to the nines. During campaign time, you can see him sporting a ‘RUN DMP’ shirt, a witty play on the popular hip-hop group RUN DMC,” state Sen. Britnee Timberlake, an Essex County Democrat, wrote following the disclosure of Payne’s grave condition.