Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to retire at the end of the year makes at least one thing very clear: The filibuster is in big trouble.

Two of its staunchest defenders in the Democratic Caucus, Sinema and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), are now leaving. And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stepping down as GOP leader won’t do anything to shore up the Senate’s 60-vote requirement on most legislation.

That’s good news to filibuster haters — and a “scary situation” for Manchin.

“It’s time to get rid of the filibuster. The filibuster has been anti-Democratic and has done a whole lot more harm than good,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “If [Republicans] have legislation they wanted to pass. And the filibuster stood in the way? The filibuster would be toast. It’s total politics.”

Republicans are now starting a race to succeed McConnell, who cut multiple bipartisan deals with Sinema and Manchin in recent years and sought to raise the debt ceiling so the two moderates wouldn’t vote to change the rules. McConnell also refused to change the filibuster when Donald Trump was president as he urged GOP senators to end the longstanding supermajority requirement before Democrats did.

Filibuster politics are highly situational, and both parties have used the legislative tool in recent years to block bills in the Senate — though some Republicans believe their party benefits more from the filibuster. Already the nomination filibuster is no more: Democrats scrapped it for most nominees in 2013 and McConnell finished the job by axing its use on Supreme Court nominees in 2017.

And it’s easy to defend the legislative filibuster from the minority position, as Republicans have the past four years. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he was “sure” a Republican majority would keep the filibuster.

But if GOP senators have a good November, McConnell’s successor could easily face intense pressure from Trump and his allies to scrap the rule.

“It’s going to be up to us, and for sure whoever the leader is, to defend the institution. And the role the Senate plays constitutionally,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), who is running against Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the leader race. “We’ve got to make sure, if we get the majority, that we have a majority of Republicans committed to its defense.”

Cornyn said the filibuster is in “good shape” if Republicans get the majority but he’s “worried about it” if Democrats win this fall. After all, Democrats were just two votes away from dealing a huge blow to the rule two years ago, when the party sought to use the issue of voting rights as the impetus for a high-profile vote to weaken the filibuster in 2022. They only failed due to opposition from Manchin and Sinema.

But if Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) wins his race, Democrats hold the Senate, Biden wins reelection and the party takes the House, another effort to scrap the supermajority threshold seems almost certain. Kari Lake, who is running against Gallego, praised Sinema on Tuesday for showing “courage” on the filibuster and insisted she would not vote to change it.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who may be the most conservative Democrat left in the Senate if he wins a tough reelection bid this fall, said he does not want to abolish the filibuster altogether but would like to make it harder for individual senators to stop bills: “A talking filibuster is not necessarily a bad thing.”

And Democratic leaders aren’t shy about the fact that they still want “real changes in the Senate rules,” as Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) put it.

“This is no longer a deliberative, legislative body,” he said. “We’ve got to change the current set of rules as they are now. I think the Senate is drifting into obscurity.”

Six Senate progressives are calling for the revival of a committee to investigate alleged war profiteering by some of America’s top defense contractors, according to a letter obtained by POLITICO.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and his colleagues want leaders to reestablish the Senate Special Committee to Investigate the National Defense Program, a panel led during World War II by then-Sen. Harry Truman (D-Mo.). The panel, known as the “Truman Committee,” looked into the defense industry’s profits to ensure they weren’t ripping off the government during an era-defining fight.

The six progressive senators contend major defense contractors, namely Lockheed Martin and RTX Corporation, overcharged the government and used the cash influx to reward shareholders. The senators want Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to revive the Truman Committee as the U.S. hands out military contracts to support the war in Ukraine.

“There’s a name for all this: war profiteering. These companies’ greed is not just fleecing the American taxpayer; it’s killing Ukrainians. A contractor padding its profit margins means that, for the same amount of federal spending, fewer weapons reach Ukrainians on the front lines,” wrote Sanders alongside Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.).

The goal, they continued, would be “to provide dedicated resources and staff to investigate war profiteering, the effects of consolidation in the defense industry, the lack of sufficient oversight over U.S. military spending, and options for further use of the Defense Production Act or other federal authorities to provide for the national defense in a more cost-effective and transparent manner.”

The letter faults RTX for a sevenfold price increase over the last 30 years for Stinger missiles, which the U.S. has sent to Ukraine, and its plans for $37 billion in stock buybacks through 2025. A buyback is when companies purchase their own shares from the market, which increases value for shareholders.

Lockheed, meanwhile, “received $46 billion in unclassified contracts in 2022, and returned about one quarter of that amount to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks,” the letter says.

The lawmakers note that Congress has authorized a defense budget of more than $900 billion for this year, and the House is considering the Senate’s $95 billion supplemental package, which would further increase military spending.

Sanders said in an interview that given the massive amounts being spent and the importance of Ukraine’s fight, now’s the time to get serious about oversight.

“The Pentagon, as you may know, is the only major federal agency that has not been able to withstand an independent audit,” Sanders said. “There is zero doubt in my mind that there’s massive cost overruns, that there’s fraud.

“Right now, there’s a request for billions of dollars to help the people of Ukraine fight against [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s invasion, and I support that. But what we want to make sure of is that money is used to help the Ukrainian army get the military supplies they need and not simply to profit large American corporations and their shareholders — and that’s why we’re looking at the Truman Committee as a model.”

“Supporting the United States government, allies and partners to help deter and respond to an ever-changing 21st-century threat environment remains our number one priority,” Lockheed said in a statement, “and we look forward to continuing to partner with our customers to further their national security objectives.” A spokesperson for RTX declined to comment.

This would not be the only panel to examine this issue in modern times. In 2009, the Senate formed the bipartisan Commission on Wartime Contracting, which delved into deals made during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. “There was rampant fraud, waste and abuse following the invasion of Iraq,” then-Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) said at the time.

It’s unclear if Schumer would agree to the panel’s restoration. But the progressive senators at a minimum want a national discussion about America’s military spending, the consolidation of the defense industry and the potential for fraud when the U.S. sends weapons abroad.

The call comes less than a week before the Biden administration releases its fiscal 2025 budget request, which will be higher than the previous year’s based on the bipartisan budget deal negotiated last year.

“Americans want to see, no matter what your political point of view is, that when you spend a dollar it’s used for the purpose that it was designed for, not to make huge profits for a handful of large defense contractors,” Sanders said.

A congressionally mandated commission’s report aimed at convincing the Pentagon and Congress to reform their budget planning process is due to be released Wednesday..

One of the commission’s interim recommendations would be to give the Defense Department more flexibility to use its budget, to counteract Congress’s repeated use of stop-gap spending bills.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is throwing his weight behind an effort to instate term limits for the next Senate Republican leader, as he seeks to differentiate himself from the still emerging field.

“One reason I am running to be the next Republican Leader is because I believe the Senate needs more engagement from all of my colleagues, and that includes the opportunity for any Member to serve in Leadership,” the Texan wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. “I will support a conference vote to change the rules and institute term limits for the Republican Leader.”

Cornyn’s only declared opponent — to date — is current Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), though the field could well grow in the ensuing months. He previously held the spot currently occupied by Thune and also served twice as the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she will not run for reelection this year, setting up a race between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake to succeed her.

The first-term senator, who left the Democratic Party to become an independent, said she believes in her approach to politics, “but it’s not what America wants right now.”

“Because I choose civility, understanding, listening, working together to get stuff done. I will leave the Senate at the end of this year,” Sinema said in a video message posted to social media on Tuesday.

The White House, along with law enforcement and labor groups, is pushing back against what they call “Islamophobic attacks” against a Biden administration nominee who would become the first Muslim American federal appellate judge if confirmed.

The Senate Judiciary Committee advanced Adeel Mangi’s potentially historic nomination in January, after Republicans peppered him with questions on the Israel-Hamas war and the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The AFL-CIO and Coalition of the Underrepresented Law Enforcement Associations wrote to Senate and Judiciary panel leadership to voice their support for Mangi in recent weeks.

“We were upset and disturbed by some of the questions he was subjected to during his committee hearing. Nominees should be evaluated based on their intellectual abilities and a review of their legal careers and not based upon their religion,” wrote the AFL-CIO’s William Samuel.

The law enforcement organization, based in Mangi’s home state of New Jersey, wrote: “As law enforcement professionals, it is our collective belief that Mr. Mangi will help ensure equity in the administration of justice in all communities.”

“The White House stands 100 percent behind Mr. Mangi and we call on the Senate to swiftly confirm him. Mr. Mangi has been subjected to uniquely hostile attacks, in a way other nominees have not — precisely because of his Muslim faith,” White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told POLITICO.

“Mr. Mangi has forcefully and repeatedly condemned antisemitism, terrorism, and the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks,” said Bates, who also said that Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) “owe Mr. Mangi an apology.”

Prominent Jewish organizations, including the Anti-Defamation League and American Association of Jewish Lawyers and Jurists to the American Jewish Committee, had previously voiced their support for Mangi’s nomination.

Mangi is a partner at the law firm Patterson Belknap Webb & Tyler and served from 2019 to 2023 as an advisory board member at Rutgers University’s Center for Security, Race and Rights. Last month Senate Judiciary Republicans launched an investigation into the Rutgers center, accusing the program of platforming “terrorist sympathizers” and making Mangi’s affiliation a centerpiece of their opposition to his nomination.

Mangi told lawmakers in a December hearing that the center’s advisory board met just once a year and that he wasn’t familiar with the events highlighted in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer met with a member of Israel’s war cabinet, Benny Gantz, on Tuesday at the Capitol as Congress pursues a path forward for additional aid.

Neither man took questions from assembled journalists as they shook hands. Schumer is the highest-ranking Jewish lawmaker in U.S. history.

Gantz is a top rival to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and made the trip in defiance of the longtime Israeli leader. He’s seen as a potential successor to Netanyahu and met with Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also meet with the Israeli official on Tuesday.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is also expected to meet privately with Gantz on Tuesday, though his office did not immediately provide details of that visit. Gantz also huddled with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday.

Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso will pass on a bid for GOP leader in the next Congress, instead pursuing the No. 2 job of party whip.

Barrasso, who is currently the No. 3 Senate Republican, is informing colleagues of his plans, according to a person familiar with his interactions who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. Barrasso’s office declined to comment.

His decision narrows the GOP leadership race down to Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) — for now, at least. Thune is the current whip and Cornyn previously served for six years as whip , but both are term-limited out of the job.

That opens the door for Barrasso to more easily win the post, which is central to the daily floor action of the Senate. It also comes with a security detail and prime office space in the Capitol building.

Barrasso had been in the mix for the leader job, but Republicans can only pursue one position in the party leadership at a time, making it more risky to for him to try and succeed departing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and comparatively less challenging to become whip.

Barrasso is also term-limited out of the conference chair job, and his bid for whip opens up the No. 3 position. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) confirmed to Hugh Hewitt on Tuesday that he’s pursuing the position. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who currently occupies the No. 4 spot of Republican Policy Committee chair, has not made a decision on whether she will stay put or pursue another leadership office.

Punchbowl News first reported Barrasso’s official decision. POLITICO reported on Friday that Barrasso and Cotton were respectively eyeing the No. 2 and No. 3 jobs.