Before Jason Smith moved his $78 billion bipartisan tax deal through the House, the Ways and Means chair made sure to run it by Donald Trump.

In a 90-minute meeting in December, Smith briefed Trump on the package that would expand the child tax credit and provide a series of business tax breaks — a move that helped ensure Trump would not scuttle the deal. The former president, presumably, gave him that reassurance.

“I have discussions with President Trump quite often, and he was well aware that this is a big win for his policies,” Smith (R-Mo.) said, recalling the lengthy conversation about the tax package that overwhelmingly passed this week. “President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. People may not want to admit that. But he has been for a long time.”

Trump’s restraint made it easier for House Republicans to steer the deal to overwhelming bipartisan passage. By contrast, the president’s vocal opposition has essentially put the Senate’s emerging border deal on life support.

With every day that Trump draws closer to the GOP’s presidential nomination, his voice carries more weight within the party. The former president, who holds no elected office, arguably can exert more influence over the Republican agenda than either the party’s speaker or Senate GOP leader.

It’s a 180-degree turn from three years ago, when Trump’s efforts to overturn his loss to President Joe Biden culminated in a violent Capitol riot that ended with seven Republican senators voting to convict him in a second impeachment trial. These days, Republicans are increasingly sensitive to Trump’s viewpoints and conscious of his power to upend bills that Joe Biden might be able to tout on the campaign trail.

At a minimum, Trump’s ballooning clout could doom two top Biden priorities: Ukraine aid and a bipartisan border deal. Even the tax deal Trump blessed on its way to House passage faces an uncertain future in the Senate, where some Republicans have warned that it could amount to a win for Biden. Republicans are still wondering whether Trump might publicly support the tax bill, according to interviews with several senators this week, with Finance Committee ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) saying he’s only heard “rumors.”

On the other side of that GOP divide, a sizable number of lawmakers are chafing at the idea that Trump can single-handedly tie their hands.

“I just think it’s unfortunate that we can’t, as individual United States senators, take the time and the effort and intellectual honesty to study something on your own and make a decision,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). “Donald Trump has an opinion too. That’s great, but ours should be our opinion.”

When the Senate started its bipartisan border negotiations last fall — a Republican demand, to be clear — it still was not entirely clear Trump would lock up the GOP nomination. More than three months later, as those negotiations come to a close, Trump’s collision course with Biden is threatening any deal in Congress that has Biden’s imprint on it.

So Trump’s attacks have become something of a bat signal now for many Republicans in Congress.

“When former President Trump says something, everybody listens,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who hails from a border district. “Everybody.”

When Trump was president, he frequently dialed up senators and members of Congress to discuss the daily Washington grind of politics and policy. He tanked a 2018 border deal, leaned on senators to support his nominees and developed his own kitchen cabinet of congressional advisers — some of whom, like former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former Sen. David Perdue, are no longer in Congress.

So Trump’s leaning on old and new allies as he prepares for a fall slugfest over control of Congress and the White House. In the House, he frequently chats with Speaker Mike Johnson, according to advisers, as well as Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Max Miller of Ohio, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Ronny Jackson of Texas.

Over in the Senate, Trump iAndrew Harniks in regular contact with lawmakers like Sens. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Steve Daines of Montana, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama.

“President Trump has worked to develop and maintain close relationships with Congressional members and elected officials that fight for the American people. That’s why he’s received overwhelming support,” Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement.

Trump views his relationships on the Hill as critical to his return to power. Over the course of the past year, he has spoken to over 100 members, soliciting endorsements and inviting them to his rallies or dinner at Mar-a-Lago. He has worked closely with Brian Jack, a senior campaign aide and congressional liaison, on cultivating relationships on the Hill.

His efforts have been fairly successful; Trump currently boasts the support of 137 House members and 31 senators. And when Republicans call Trump, it is often to ask for his opinion on whatever is playing out on the Hill as a kind of party elder, according to an adviser.

Still, even some Trump allies disagree. Graham said he speaks with Trump regularly, but he was comfortable differing with the former president and backing more aid to Ukraine, saying: “My policy ideas are pretty firm.” He was unwilling to comment yet on the border deal until he sees text.

Vance, another close Trump ally, seems to be more en vogue with the former president.

“I’ve made the argument on Ukraine that it’s very stupid for us to get crosswise with the party’s nominees, especially on an issue where he’s very directly opposed to Joe Biden,” Vance said. “Where I am substantively aligned with President Trump, which is on most things, my strong preference is that the caucus listens to President Trump.”

While Vance and other Trump confidants say that he isn’t personally lobbying GOP lawmakers to kill the border and Ukraine deal, that’s probably because he doesn’t need to. As the Republican primary fizzled out and Trump romped in the two early states, the GOP is intuitively reacting to Trump’s positions to avoid getting too far out of step with him.

The effect is most pronounced in the House, where two-year terms and a constant threat to Johnson’s job make it politically perilous to diverge from Trump. Plus, House members are more susceptible to primary challenges that could easily spring from Trump-defying votes, like on the Senate’s border and Ukraine package.

“President Trump has had an influence on it. You also have to think about where we are in political cycles,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “If you’ve got somebody who’s got a filing deadline in March or April or May, there’d be no way to prevent an uninformed person from challenging them.”

Tillis, one of Congress’ most prominent deal-cutters, is urging other Republicans to develop their own opinions about legislation. The North Carolina Republican is opposing Smith’s tax bill and supporting Sen. James Lankford’s (R-Okla.) border deal, which backers argue won’t hurt Trump because it comes far too late to save Biden’s standing on the issue.

Trump realizes the border “is a potent issue for him. What I would tell him is I don’t think the issue is going to go away,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a potential future GOP leader who has endorsed Trump. “Even if something were to pass in the next 10 months, I don’t think you’re gonna see a dramatic change at the border.”

So far, that argument has not sunk in. Trump visited Washington this week and attacked the border deal, warning that those who support it are making a “terrible mistake.” Episodes like that remind Republicans trying to negotiate deals Trump doesn’t like — and break Congress’ stubborn unproductive streak — that every day becomes more of an uphill battle.

“You gotta read it and understand that there are divided chambers and tight margins. And is half a loaf better than no loaf? That’s what we got to look at,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.).

NEW YORK — House Republicans are banking on border security being key to keeping their majority. The special election in a district straddling Long Island and migrant-overwhelmed New York City provides their first test case.

Outside a sprawling migrant shelter last week, Ethiopian-born Mazi Pilip introduced herself to reporters as a legal immigrant before identifying herself as a GOP congressional candidate. She then linked Democrat Tom Suozzi — her opponent in the race to replace George Santos — to what she described as President Joe Biden’s failed border policies.

Facing cameras in the same spot moments later, Suozzi delivered a rebuttal, arguing Republicans are politicizing the issue instead of solving it.

The competing news conferences outside the Creedmoor Psychiatric Center migrant tent complex in Queens laid bare how central the border fight is in this local race. And they underscored how illegal immigration and national security are affecting voters in a presidential election year as Republicans hammer Biden over the border.

The Long Island race on Feb. 13 should be Democrats’ to lose.

They’re running a familiar candidate, vastly outspending the GOP and are not the party of Santos — the first Republican ever expelled from Congress. Suozzi, a former House member with centrist views, would appear to be a heavyweight against Pilip, a political novice who makes herself scarce on the trail and keeps some views close to the vest.

But between the surge of migrants to New York City — more than 170,000 since April 2022 — and the infrastructure of the hyper-organized Nassau County Republican Committee, Democrats find themselves on the defensive.

“This is our seat to win,” Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, a Nassau County Republican, said in an interview. “This is going to be the message that is sent across this country and to Minority Leader [Hakeem] Jeffries that perhaps they should be investing their money somewhere else in the general.”

The face-off between Pilip and Suozzi marks the first House race of the year. And it has provided some early insights into how each party is campaigning.

So far, Democrats are showing caution as Republicans are projecting confidence — especially around border politics.

“I will work to stop Joe Biden and Tom Suozzi’s sanctuary city policies and secure our border and invest in our brave ICE agents,” Pilip pledged outside Creedmoor.

Her campaign’s first three TV ads have featured juxtaposed images of Suozzi, Biden and masses of migrants on the move at the Southern border. An ad push by the House GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund also capitalizes on migrant crisis backlash.

There’s good reason for that: An Emerson College/PIX11 poll found 26 percent of voters in the district listed immigration as their top concern. The same poll, the only public survey released thus far, showed Pilip within three points of Suozzi, who represented the district for six years.

Republicans have an easier task.

They must persuade voters concerned enough to head to the polls in a typically low-turnout special election that they have a better handle over the migrant crisis. And in Washington, House Republicans have advanced impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Some reject the notion that they should negotiate with the Democrats on a border deal, saying instead that Biden should enforce laws already on the books.

Democrats, by contrast, are on the defensive.

They must juggle acknowledging the gravity of the situation while calling out the GOP on leveraging it for political gain — and do both without undermining the president.

“I agree, it’s a big, big problem,” Suozzi said at a recent news conference, referring to the migrant crisis. “Why would you not do everything in your power to try and get a bipartisan deal done to fix this problem?”

Democrats and allied PACs in ads and mailers have portrayed Pilip as beholden to “MAGA Republicans,” tied her to extremist policies like a proposed nationwide ban on abortion and accused her of hiding from hard questions. (She has called herself “pro-life,” but has said she would not support a federal ban on abortion.) Suozzi’s campaign has run mostly biographical ads about his work across the aisle and touted his support for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The party that wins can claim momentum ahead of November, when six competitive New York House races will help determine which party wields the speakership come 2025. And the special election results will shape messaging nationwide in a presidential contest focused on inflation, the Israel-Hamas war, abortion access and illegal immigration.

“Fear-mongering is an effective tool for campaigning,” Rep. Grace Meng, a Queens Democrat, said in an interview. “But our responsibility as legislators is to provide solutions, and at the very least, to show up and talk to our voters, which is not happening.”

The comment was a dig at Pilip’s limited time in the public eye.

The first news conference of her campaign occurred six weeks after she was nominated.

Three days later, the Nassau GOP hosted a rally with eight House Republicans, including Majority Whip Tom Emmer, but excluded the candidate they were on hand to honor. Organizers had scheduled an event at a time when Pilp, an Orthodox Jew, was observing the Sabbath.

Additionally, Pilip has agreed to just one debate against Suozzi.

What’s nonetheless clear is that Republicans are framing Suozzi and Biden as a threat to their way of life.

“This ain’t about Nassau County, about the North Shore. It’s about the United States of America,” Nassau GOP chairman Joe Cairo said. “We have to stop the nonsense.”

Suozzi may be uniquely positioned to take it all on. Rather than a full-throated defense of Biden, the former representative has shown a readiness to call out obstinance in either party.

“And the Democrats who say, ‘My way or the highway,’ they’re wrong, too,” he said. “The key to solving problems, complicated problems, is compromise.”

Republicans, including Suozzi’s former congressional colleague Pete King, say it may not be enough in a region that has turned red over the years, thanks to the Nassau Republican apparatus.

Democrats say it will have to be.

“This race sets the tone for Long Island, it sets the tone for New York State, it sets the tone for the battle for the House,” said Zak Malamed, a former House candidate who endorsed Suozzi. “Some are describing this race as the Alamo for Nassau County Democrats.”

Trump continues to bash border deal

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ALBANY, New York — A largely blue-state tax issue will play an instrumental role in deciding the fate of House Republicans’ razor-thin majority this November. And they know it.

Republicans from swing House districts in high-tax areas of the country will spend the coming days lobbying their red-state colleagues to make changes to the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions that particularly hits suburban districts.

One of their arguments: Power in the House could be at stake.

“New York was the deciding factor between having a majority and not,” Hudson Valley GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who campaigned heavily on the issue, said in an interview Thursday. “It will once again be deciding the majority.”

Lawler along with his fellow New York Republicans from battleground districts are backing a change to the provision known commonly as SALT. The cap on deductions would be raised to $20,000 for joint filers with gross adjusted income of $500,000 or less.

It passed the House Rules Committee on Thursday afternoon and could head to a floor vote as soon as next week.

“This is about fairness with our constituents being double taxed,” Lawler said. “This is pro-family. This is about ensuring married couples are not being penalized in the tax code.”

The SALT cap, part of the 2017 law approved under then-President Donald Trump and Republican-controlled Congress, hit costly Democratic-led states like New York, New Jersey and California the hardest.

Those states typically have some of the highest property taxes in the country. The first-term Republicans who flipped Democratic seats in suburban areas ran on the pledge of ending the cap.

But making changes has been a slog over the past 13 months for vulnerable House Republicans in a fractious GOP conference.

The plan to completely end the cap has been altered to a proposal that is tailored to mostly middle-income couples with the hope of creating a path of least resistance. Opponents have argued that lifting the cap would solely help rich people.

But in the New York area, a couple making $200,000 can easily have a property-tax bill that exceeds $20,000 a year. And not having the ability to deduct them from income tax filings can lead to higher household costs.

“Everyone knows they’re not going to lift the cap entirely, that’s just out of the realm of possibility,” a Republican aide said of the proposal and granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the negotiations. “This is likely the most realistic and palatable thing for the conference.”

By narrowing it to married couples, supporters hope to expand the proposal’s appeal to more conservative GOP lawmakers.

“Regardless of whether the majority of those folks come from red states or blue states, we don’t punish people for being married,” Long Island freshman GOP Rep. Nick LaLota said.

The SALT cap has been decried by Democrats and Republicans alike in high-tax states, and it has for years served as red meat for candidates during campaigns in vital battleground races.

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo blasted the SALT cap’s impact on New York homeowners and unsuccessfully sued to overturn it.

His successor, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, this week said the issue is firmly in House Republicans’ hands, pointing to it as a reason why people are leaving for lower-taxed states.

“You can draw a line between the elimination of the full state and local tax deduction to the increase in outmigration from the state of New York,” she told reporters. “You can see that a lot of people left our state because that was just one more extraordinary burden that they used to be able to write off their property taxes.”

The fight over the cap on deductions has already spilled onto the campaign trail this year with six New York Houses likely up for grabs.

Democrat Tom Suozzi, a former House lawmaker who is campaigning for the seat he vacated in 2022 in a special election on Feb. 13, has long made repealing SALT a key plank. He told reporters Thursday that “it’s not going to get done” with Republicans in charge.

“These guys from Long Island who say they’re in favor of restoring the state and local tax deduction haven’t done anything to build a coalition,” he charged. “All they’re doing is bringing it up at the last minute.”

Mazi Pilip, Suozzi’s Republican-backed opponent, blamed her Democratic rival for not getting the SALT change while he was in office.

“Mazi is excited to see the fruition of the LI delegation’s hard work as they seek to raise the SALT cap that Tom Suozzi promised to restore, but failed repeatedly,” campaign spokesperson Brian Devine said.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), a Suozzi ally, blamed Republicans for not including the SALT cap change in a broader tax package that cleared the chamber this week.

“My colleagues from New York came to the Congress last year and said their top priority was going to be to fix the state and local tax deduction that Republicans broke and they have failed to do it repeatedly,” he said. “I have no confidence in their ability to change that situation.”

The House tax bill, which included a strengthening of the child tax credit and relief for businesses, created a mini-revolt from some Republicans in Democratic-heavy states for not including the SALT change.

Freshman New Jersey incumbent Rep. Tom Kean, another vulnerable House member, was one of two New Jersey House members who voted against the tax relief bill Wednesday night.

“On a bill that does not raise the SALT cap deduction, I am a NO vote,” Kean said in a statement. “The fact is, families across New Jersey deserve SALT tax relief, and I will continue standing strong to deliver on that goal until we get a bill to the floor that extends that relief to New Jersey families.”

The other New Jersey member to vote against the tax bill was Democrat Frank Pallone. Democratic Reps. Bill Pascrell and Mikie Sherrill, two New Jersey members of the SALT caucus that is fighting for changes, have offered their own alternatives to lift the cap.

“Despite pervasive half-truths and misunderstandings, the state and local tax deduction is a lifeline for middle class Americans and their families,” Pascrell and Sherrill said in a joint statement.

LaLota, who voted against the tax bill, said it was a fulfillment of his campaign pledge to change the SALT cap. GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro, who voted in favor of the tax bill, said in an interview that the tax bill approved this week is meant to build a “foundation” moving forward for broader relief.

House Democrats, he insisted, should also go along with the SALT change.

The outcome of next week’s vote could be used by both parties on the campaign trail: Failure would be trumpeted by Democrats; success praised by Republicans.

“This is an opportunity for Democrats to show they’re bipartisan,” Molinaro said in an interview. “Either they agree with what they’ve been saying or they see this as a political tool for them.”

Jason Beeferman, Nicholas Wu and Dustin Racioppi contributed to this report.