WAUSAU, Wisconsin — Democrats have spent 12 years and hundreds of millions of dollars fighting for a chance to dismantle the dominant conservative majorities that locked them out of power in Wisconsin’s statehouse.

But to regain clout in Madison, they’ll need to rebuild trust with voters in a place that’s become increasingly hostile to Democrats nationwide: rural America.

Democrats have a shot in Wisconsin thanks to new voting maps passed after the state’s liberal-controlled high court tossed out the ones crafted by Republicans to tilt in their favor.

“We feel the wind in our sails,” Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer said. “There are Democrats all across the state, and many of those voters have not been able to make their voices heard in legislative elections because of the gerrymander.”

With Congress hamstrung by divided control, state legislatures are increasingly setting the country’s policy agenda. That shift has morphed tight contests for statehouses into expensive, high-stakes affairs in places like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Democrats have their work cut out for them in the Dairy State. They’ve been run out of wide swaths of rural Wisconsin over the past two decades as many once-purple communities in the state’s less-populous north and west took a sharp right turn.

Republicans boast a commanding 64-34 majority in the state Assembly, and while new maps all but guarantee that edge will slip, pundits watching the race expect the GOP to retain a slim majority. Winning back the state Senate from a Republican supermajority is out of the question, since new maps won’t fully kick in there until 2026.

Republican leaders are banking that a deep bench of incumbents and a track record of delivering tax cuts will keep rural voters in their camp. Robin Vos, the powerful Republican Assembly speaker for more than a decade, said he’d bet his “bottom dollar” the GOP will remain in the majority come 2025.

“We are working harder, doing more doors, putting in the grassroots effort that has allowed us to be victorious over the course of the past 30 years,” Vos said.

But Democrats are looking to continue a recent string of success in statewide races after winning back the governor’s mansion in 2018 and flipping the state’s Supreme Court from conservative to liberal in 2023. They’re pouring money into more than a dozen battleground seats unlocked by new maps. And in a show of force, the party is contesting 97 of Wisconsin’s 99 Assembly districts, its largest recruitment effort since 2011.

Should liberals pull off the upset in Wisconsin, their strategy could become a blueprint for Democrats across the country searching for a way to halt the red tidal wave that’s washed over the American heartland.

“We see a slightly Democratic leaning overall environment,” Neubauer said. “That’s an environment in which we can win a majority.”

No home field advantage

Wisconsin Democrats will need to step out of their comfort zone to win back the Assembly.

The party’s battle-tested strategy for winning statewide races — overwhelming turnout in Democratic strongholds like Dane and Milwaukee counties paired with overperformance in suburban areas that used to vote reliably Republican — won’t be enough to hand them the majority.

Instead, the tipping-point seat is likely somewhere along Highway 29, an east-west artery that reaches across the state’s largely rural center and runs right through Wausau, where Democrat Yee Leng Xiong is looking to oust four-term GOP Rep. Patrick Snyder.

Snyder’s district is centered around this manufacturing and agriculture hub of about 40,000 people. Republicans flipped the historically blue seat in 2014 thanks to friendly maps and growing rural support for the GOP.

“We win that one, [it’s] very likely to be the seat that would give us the majority,” Neubauer said.

Xiong, a local school board member and former executive director of Wausau’s Hmong American Center, has been on Democrats’ radar for years. He finally decided to run for the seat after the state Supreme Court ordered new maps last December. He would be Wisconsin’s first Hmong American legislator if he wins in November.

“I’m really fortunate this district is 50-50,” said Xiong, who described himself as “annoyingly moderate” with a penchant for bipartisanship. “If it was too progressive, I probably wouldn’t win. If it was too conservative, I wouldn’t win.”

Snyder declined a request to comment.

But Xiong, like other Democrats running in rural areas, is up against a Republican operation that has had years to hone its rural campaigning skills.

Multiple Republican strategists who spoke with POLITICO said the party has a robust ground game focused on community events and a keen eye for recruiting strong candidates — an effort spearheaded by Vos.

“We want to find a person that has a record as an elected official, a community leader, a business leader, somebody who’s well-known in the community,” Vos said. “That person usually translates in because they don’t start with some hard ideological edge.”

Morgan Hess, executive director of the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee, admitted the party has had trouble recruiting quality candidates to match Republicans in recent years, though she argues Republicans’ aggressive gerrymander played a sizable role in the challenge.

“It makes it hard to recruit good candidates,” Hess said. “When districts are specifically drawn to be noncompetitive, then it is harder to get local leaders to step up.”

Down to the ground game

Vos pointed to vulnerable incumbent Republican Rep. Todd Novak as a candidate-recruitment case study. On paper, Novak’s race in southwestern Wisconsin looks like a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats. The district, which covers small towns and dairy farms scattered across rolling hills west of Madison, leans Democratic after its boundaries were stretched east to pull in parts of solidly blue Dane County.

Yet Republicans have reason to believe he can keep his seat. Novak, who is openly gay, has a moderate streak, having supported nonpartisan redistricting before the state Supreme Court’s 2023 decision to order new maps. He’s knocked off tough Democratic challengers before, and campaign finance records from September show Novak has outraised and outspent his 2024 challenger, Elizabeth Grabe.

Novak did not respond to requests for comment.

With Republicans entrenched in rural areas, Democrats are going the extra mile to reach voters on the ground.

That’s how Grabe, a realtor who moved back to Wisconsin in 2005 to manage her family’s farm, found herself trekking up a winding gravel driveway in the tiny southwestern hamlet of Montfort after grabbing lunch at a local sports bar. She’s criss-crossed the 50-mile-wide district in her white SUV to reach voters, an effort the former triathlete compared to running a marathon after finishing a long bike ride.

“I don’t think I would have been able to do it if I didn’t have the background as an endurance athlete,” Grabe said.

Democrats are also playing defense in districts once considered safe under the old maps. In Eau Claire, a college town of about 70,000 people located 90 minutes east of Minneapolis, new maps cut parts of the city out of incumbent Democratic Rep. Jodi Emerson’s district and added in deep-red swaths of countryside to the east.

Her race against Republican challenger and county supervisor Michele Magadance Skinner is still rated “lean Democratic” by election forecasting site CNalysis, but she’s not taking anything for granted. The three-term incumbent said she’s made a point of traveling out to small towns like Augusta, where she spent a recent Saturday afternoon chatting with the staff of a local diner over lunch. (Skinner did not return requests for comment.)

“It matters to show up, be there, and be present in these communities,” Emerson said. “Even if I’m not winning votes, if I’m introducing myself to them and having a good conversation, my hope is I walk away with at least their respect.”

Money matters

Emerson and other Democrats looking to win over rural voters are campaigning on a slate of kitchen-table issues — greater funding for child care, public schools and local governments — they feel Republicans have neglected despite record state budget surpluses.

For example, city and county leaders have increasingly asked local taxpayers to foot the bill for municipal services like libraries and road construction when state aid comes up short. Democrats say the shortages are a direct result of Republican-imposed austerity.

“Rural folks are being impacted by this,” Xiong said. “The state legislature has been balancing its budget on the back of local government.”

They’re pushing a similar message on health care. Republicans have long opposed Medicaid expansion, making Wisconsin one of 10 states that has not approved benefits that the state’s health department estimates would extend medical coverage to nearly 90,000 residents.

Neubauer thinks these issues will resonate with voters. She was even willing to throw out a target number for Democrats — 52 seats — in an August interview with The Recombobulation Area, a local left-leaning politics blog.

Republicans are hustling to ward off a potential Democratic insurgency. GOP campaigns and conservative groups have swarmed the airwaves with ads painting Democrats as “out of touch” and “extreme” for opposing tax cuts during the last legislative session. Their counter-message is that lower taxes and less government spending will keep the state’s budget healthy and money in voters’ wallets.

“I’ve never had a person say we should expand welfare. I’ve never had a person bring up Medicaid expansion, not one. This is an example of projecting onto voters what you want them to believe, right?” Vos said. “The number one issue: jobs and the economy.”

Hammering high taxes and spending has served Republicans well. The issues fueled the party’s rise in 2010 behind then-Gov. Scott Walker, who made an explicit play for rural voters by promising to reallocate resources from Madison and Milwaukee to the rest of the state. He made good on promises to slash taxes, reject federal funding for a high-speed train connecting Madison and Milwaukee to Chicago and pass legislation that kneecapped public employees’ ability to collectively bargain.

“There’s some very legitimate reasons that people in rural areas feel like their economy and their way of life has been left behind,” said Brian Reisinger, a former Walker staffer who now works as a public affairs consultant and authored a recent book about rural economics. “I think that Governor Walker tapped into that by saying, ‘Hey, I’m fighting for you. I’m fighting for the taxpayer.’”

Yet Reisinger cautioned that Republicans’ advantage isn’t set in stone, especially as Democrats are making a more intentional play for rural voters.

“Republicans need to take notice,” he said. “Our politics are not static — it’s especially not the case in rural areas.”

House Republicans are headed for several fights over their committee leadership ranks next year, with critical implications for policy priorities and the next president.

Some positions, like on the Judiciary Committee, could open up if the top Republicans choose to climb the leadership ladder in the next Congress. Others want to defy Republicans’ six-year term limits, hoping to continue cementing their legacy atop their preferred panels. Still others are retiring, paving the way for new leadership.

These roles will be critical in the 119th Congress regardless of who wins the presidency. If former President Donald Trump wins a second term, committee chairs will be tasked with turning his campaign rhetoric into legislative action. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, GOP chairs will serve as a major check on executive actions and are sure to conduct rigorous oversight of her administration.

The size of the GOP majority, should the party keep control in November, will play a critical role in how some jockeying will play out. If it’s a narrow margin again, as expected, Speaker Mike Johnson may have to use the positions as bargaining chips to keep conservatives behind him when he makes another bid for the speakership. On a few panels, including the Intelligence and Rules Committees, the speaker has unilateral authority to appoint the chair.

For most other panels, the influential Steering Committee recommends which lawmakers will lead. That panel’s composition could look quite different next Congress, as a handful of members face potentially competitive reelection bids and others plan to leave Congress.

Things are generally calmer for Democrats — who heed to seniority and don’t use term limits — if they instead regain the majority. None of their current committee leaders are retiring or departing Congress, though Agriculture Committee ranking member David Scott (D-Ga.) has dealt with questions about his ability to lead that panel.

Three prominent GOP committee chairs on the Rules, Energy and Commerce, and Financial Services Committees aren’t coming back to Congress, promising to create a series of fierce battles to succeed them. Term limits also affect multiple committees, including Foreign Affairs, Education and the Workforce, and Transportation.

Here’s a look at the jockeying going on behind the scenes:

Rules Committee

Republicans will have a vacancy atop the Rules Committee come January, with current Chair Michael Burgess (R-Texas) set to retire. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) is viewed as a contender for that spot, but he’s also chief deputy whip.

Unlike most committees, filling the panel’s top spot if Republicans win the majority is decided by one person: the speaker. Republicans are bracing for a potential leadership shakeup, though Johnson has a shot at holding onto the gavel if his party stays in control. Whoever ultimately emerges as the winner will want to stick their own ally in the top spot.

Some House Republicans also want to overhaul the makeup of the Rules Committee. It’s typically loaded up with leadership allies, since the panel sets the terms of debate for major bills on the floor. But it became a sizeable pothole for leadership’s agenda in this Congress after then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy cut a deal to give hardliners three seats on the panel.

There’s a push among some centrists and leadership allies to remove two of its members in particular — Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) — next Congress.

Ranking member Jim McGovern is expected to take over if Democrats win the House majority.

— Jordain Carney

Judiciary Committee

Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan is running for another term as the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee — and has a lock on the job if that is the perch he wants next Congress.

But House Republicans widely believe that Jordan is angling for a position in leadership. Though he has repeatedly vowed he won’t challenge Johnson for the gavel, GOP lawmakers and leadership aides are anticipating a Jordan vs. Majority Leader Steve Scalise battle for the GOP’s top spot if the party loses the majority.

Jordan, in a recent interview, sidestepped a question about whether he would jump into a minority leader race, adding: “We’re going to be in the majority. I ain’t running for anything except chairman of the Judiciary Committee.”

If Jordan makes a successful jump, it would open up a coveted influential committee spot that is typically home to some of the House’s most partisan battles. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) is next in line and could be poised to move up.

If Democrats flip the chamber, 77-year-old Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) is expected to get the gavel, though the move could spark grumbling from some Democrats about his age.

— Jordain Carney

Foreign Affairs Committee

House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul is term-limited from the top GOP spot on the committee but is making a longshot bid for a waiver.

The Texas Republican is arguing his extensive relationships warrant the extension, given the tenuous time on the world scene, and he’s making the case that he could be a critical ally for Trump if he wins in November.

But McCaul will have an uphill fight to convince party leadership that he should get another two years. House Republicans rarely grant waivers for committee chairs to stay on past their six-year term limits, though they gave one to Rep. Virginia Foxx to continue leading the Education and Workforce panel this Congress.

Vice Chair Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), Middle East Subcommittee Chair Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), and Issa are all reportedly vying for the job.

Issa, a former business executive, is known for his aggressive approach leading the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee against the Obama administration, while Wilson is known as a genial centrist with military experience. What’s unclear is whether Wilson’s role as co-chair of the Ukraine Caucus will prove a liability given Republican divisions over continued aid for Kyiv.

“We are in a global conflict we did not choose. I am running to unite Republicans to confront the profound challenges and opportunities we face today,” Wilson said in a statement.

If Democrats gain control of the House, ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) would become the chair. A Biden administration ally, Meeks has also emerged as a surrogate for the Harris campaign and is expected to aid her foreign policy agenda.

— Joe Gould and Connor O’Brien

Transportation Committee

House Transportation Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) is seeking a waiver from his party’s conference rules to serve another term. It’s a bid that would allow him to write the next bill reauthorizing programs for the nation’s highways, transit and bridges — and a chance to redirect spending away from choices made in President Joe Biden’s landmark 2021 infrastructure law.

Though he’s respected and has a deep well of knowledge on the topic, Graves’ gambit doesn’t appear likely to succeed, in part because the conference wants to make room for younger members to be able to ascend into the top panel spots. However, in a recent interview, Graves said leadership has been open to his pitch.

Still, there’s a serious potential successor who has been making the case for months that he should be the next chair: Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), who leads the Highways and Transit Subcommittee. Crawford announced his run in March and has been campaigning since.

“I’m doing everything that I think an aspiring chairman ought to try to do to achieve that position and I’ll just leave it right there,” Crawford said in a recent interview.

Washington Rep. Rick Larsen is the top Democrat on the panel.

— Chris Marquette

Education and the Workforce Committee

A veteran lawmaker and relative newcomer have found themselves in an unusually competitive race to succeed Foxx as the top Republican on the House Education and the Workforce Committee.

Rep. Tim Walberg, dean of the Michigan delegation, and Rep. Burgess Owens, a two-term Utah Republican, could reshape the panel’s priorities in different ways.

Walberg, a former steelworker, said he would focus on connecting education to jobs, including boosting apprenticeships and reauthorizing a law that governs workforce development programs. Owens, who chairs the panel’s higher education subcommittee, said he would prioritize education issues such as school choice and reevaluate how the Education Department uses its money.

Virginia Rep. Bobby Scott, the top Democrat on the committee, is likely to hold onto his spot.

— Mackenzie Wilkes

Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

Rep. Mike Turner’s (R-Ohio) bid to lead the House Intelligence Committee for a second term could get rocky if Republicans keep the majority.

Many conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus are looking to eject Turner, smarting after multiple clashes on various policy fights including government surveillance and the Ohio Republican’s warnings about Russia launching a nuclear weapon into orbit.

Since the panel is a select committee, the speaker unilaterally picks who leads it. Still, conservatives could seek to force his hand in January by withholding their support as the Louisiana Republican similarly seeks the speaker’s gavel again. Turner, however, has developed a positive working relationship with Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a former chair of the House Freedom Caucus and a new member on the committee — he endorsed Perry in his close House race. That relationship could potentially help defuse the situation for Turner.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) is the ranking member of the panel, and could easily ascend to chair if the majority flips.

— Olivia Beavers

Energy and Commerce Committee

Reps. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Bob Latta (R-Ohio), who chair the Health and Technology subcommittees of the panel, respectively, have been fighting to replace Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), who is not seeking reelection.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who leads the National Republican Congressional Committee, is also weighing a run to lead the panel with sprawling jurisdiction over topics as varied as energy, health care, technology, consumer protection and climate change.

A clear leader has not emerged from the race, though some insiders have said Guthrie might have an edge given his affability and popularity among Republicans. Latta has the seniority advantage, though. The jockeying for the seat began soon after Rodgers said she wasn’t running for reelection.

New Jersey’s Frank Pallone will likely become chair if Democrats gain a House majority.

— Ben Leonard

Financial Services Committee

The looming retirement of House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) has triggered a four-way race for the top GOP slot on the committee that oversees Wall Street, the Federal Reserve and cryptocurrency.

Reps. Andy Barr of Kentucky, French Hill of Arkansas, Bill Huizenga of Michigan and Frank Lucas of Oklahoma are vying to replace the North Carolina Republican. Barr and Hill are seen as the front-runners, though all four have served on the committee for years. Lucas is the most senior.

The race is highlighting tensions between pro-business Republicans and the party’s populists. It’s a clash that McHenry — a relative moderate in today’s GOP — has kept at bay. All four are expected to try to sustain the committee as a bastion of free-market capitalism and lighter regulation, even as Trump and running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) signal a greater willingness to have the government intervene in certain aspects of finance.

“My three friends and I share faith in the market economy,” Lucas said in an interview. “And we don’t want to encumber the financial services industry in this country.”

Barr, who has framed his pitch around appealing to both wings of the GOP, said, “There’s no need to bash one part of it and bash the other. … They’re all right.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Agriculture Committee

The Agriculture Committee is the rare exception that’s seeing more drama on the Democratic side than the Republican one. If the GOP wins, Republicans expect current Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) to maintain his position as top Republican on the panel.

But across the aisle, House Agriculture ranking member David Scott (D-Ga.), has faced multiple attempts from within his own party to oust him from his role as lead Democrat on the panel over concerns about his diminishing leadership capacity. His critics are likely to launch a renewed push to sideline him post-election.

Rank-and-file Democrats on the committee were surprised the 79-year-old chose to run for reelection this year and privately pushed for Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) or another Democrat to take over in the committee’s farm bill talks this summer. Those Democratic lawmakers also support replacing Scott as the top member of their party on the panel.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries made the rare move earlier this year of tapping Thompson to lead an agriculture task force and gather feedback on farm bill priorities — a role the committee’s top Democrat would typically fulfill.

Jeffries hasn’t ruled out asking Scott to step down from his committee job after the election. But he has avoided officially weighing in on the talks and isn’t likely to do so until after the election, when he and other Democratic leaders in the House are poised to assign key committee roles in 2025.

— Grace Yarrow and Meredith Lee Hill