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The road to the floor runs through the House Rules Committee on Tuesday for three GOP spending bills leadership looks to tackle this week: Defense, State-Foreign Operations and Homeland Security

The security spending trio is on the move as part of Speaker Mike Johnson’s ambitious effort to pass all 12 spending bills on the floor before the start of the August recess.

Sorting out amendments: The Rules panel on Tuesday will hash out which of the more than 800 amendments proposed for the bills may get a floor vote. They range from a proposal slashing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s annual salary from $221,000 to just $1, to another that would mandate that carmakers keep AM radio available in new vehicles.

Democrats opposed the GOP-led bills in committee, and they are sure to face opposition in the Democratic Senate if they clear the House. But in a divided Congress, these spending bills provide the opportunity for House Republicans to lay out policy and spending priorities, even if they have little chance of becoming law.

The most contentious Defense bill provisions, on topics such as LGBTQ troops, abortion, climate change, and diversity and inclusion, are likely to be dropped before a compromise version comes together later this year. That’s expected for the other bills as well.

The White House warned Monday that President Joe Biden would veto all three House GOP spending bills on deck this week if they reached his desk.

Starter dough: The House GOP bills will set starting points for negotiations on stopgap funding legislation closer to the Sept. 30 deadline. A final bipartisan compromise on fiscal 2025 funding isn’t expected until after the November election.

President Joe Biden would veto House Republicans’ Pentagon spending legislation loaded with conservative policy provisions if it reached his desk, the White House warned on Monday.

GOP leaders are pushing to pass the annual defense appropriations bill this week, and will not be able to count on Democratic support due to provisions targeting policies on abortion, climate change, LGBTQ troops and diversity and inclusion. In a statement outlining its objections, the White House mirrored those concerns along with a slew of changes House Republicans made to the Pentagon budget request.

The administration also ripped House leaders for dropping bipartisan side deals to last year’s debt limit agreement, which add funding to non-defense programs over the law’s spending caps, a move they argue would exact billions in cuts to domestic priorities while preserving defense spending.

“Rather than respecting their agreement and taking the opportunity to engage in a productive, bipartisan appropriations process to build on last year’s bills, House Republicans are again wasting time with partisan bills that would result in deep cuts to law enforcement, education, housing, healthcare, consumer safety, energy programs that lower utility bills and combat climate change, and essential nutrition services,” the White House argued in a statement of administration policy on the bill.

Outlook: The threat isn’t surprising, and Biden will likely never need to wield his veto pen.

Even if Republicans can secure the votes to pass the bill this week, the most contentious provisions stand no chance of clearing the Democratic Senate and will likely be dropped from any spending deal that becomes law.

Personnel issues: The administration slammed a slate of provisions that block certain personnel policies, arguing that doing so would have “devastating consequences for the readiness and wellbeing of America’s military and their families.”

Chief among White House objections is a provision that blocks funding for the Pentagon’s policy to reimburse troops who travel to seek abortions or other reproductive care. The administration also opposes Republican-backed language limiting money for gender-affirming care for transgender troops and gutting diversity, equity and inclusion programs at the Pentagon.

Ukraine: The Biden team also chided GOP appropriators for not including any of its $300 million budget request for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a longstanding program to train and equip Kyiv’s troops.

Republicans have said the money isn’t needed after Congress approved more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine in an emergency package this spring. But leaving the money out also could help GOP leaders lock down votes for hardliners who would otherwise oppose the Pentagon bill if it did include the money.

Democrats have knocked Republican leaders for sending mixed messages with the move, though. And the White House argued it plays into Russia’s hands.

“Eliminating all USAI funding would undermine U.S. national security, undercut Ukraine’s ability to fight Russian aggression, and could cause Russia and other would-be aggressors around the world to question America’s commitment to a critical partner on the frontline of aggression,” the White House said.

Gaza pier: The administration also said it opposes language added to the bill that would defund a humanitarian pier installed by the U.S. military to bring aid into Gaza. Though the beleaguered pier has been criticized as an ineffective method for delivering aid, the White House called it “a valuable tool” and argued nixing funding “would remove a vital link in the humanitarian assistance chain.”

Troop pay: The White House also expressed opposition to an effort by House appropriators to hike junior enlisted troops’ basic pay by 15 percent, on top of a 4.5 percent raise for the entire force. Officials pointed to a Pentagon military compensation review that will assess the issue, and argued the major boost would cost $3.3 billion in fiscal 2025 alone. Incurring the major cost, the administration argued, would force cuts in other parts of the defense budget.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) condemned the Biden administration for tapping a top State Department aide — whose nomination for another posting had been stalled by Republicans — for a top job in the defense secretary’s office.

Derek Chollet, the State Department counselor, will replace Kelly Magsamen as the new chief of staff to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the Pentagon chief announced on Monday.

“He is absolutely unqualified for this position,” said McCaul, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in a statement to POLITICO, calling it an “ill-advised decision.”

“With the many national security threats this country is facing, we need real leadership at the Defense Department — and Derek Chollet is not that,” McCaul added. “I strongly urge the secretary to reconsider this move.”

McCaul, whose panel is leading an investigation into the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, had argued against his earlier nomination to lead the Pentagon’s policy office.

McCaul, in a February letter urging the Senate to reject Chollet, argued that the nominee “feigned forgetfulness” when questioned for the probe — a charge the State Department denied.

“His lack of candor in my committee’s transcribed interview together with his flippant public remarks about his work at the State Department make it clear he is neither a serious person nor is he trustworthy,” McCaul said in his statement Monday.

Chollet was President Joe Biden’s pick for the Pentagon’s top policy job but his confirmation was stalled in the Senate for months amid Republican backlash.

Chollet faced a bruising Senate confirmation hearing in September. In the nine months since, the Armed Services Committee hasn’t voted to advance Chollet, indicating he likely doesn’t have enough support to be confirmed by the full Senate. And the Senate is in session only a matter of weeks before the election, making it unlikely Democratic leaders would push to confirm him now.

Pentagon officials who defended Chollet cited his extensive Middle East policy experience, a quality that should be useful to Austin amid Israel’s war in Gaza. Chollet served as the Pentagon’s assistant secretary for international security affairs from 2012 to 2015 in the Obama administration.

Nominees for the Pentagon’s policy chief — a top role in DOD’s civilian leadership — typically receive broad bipartisan support, though that’s not been the case in recent years.

Interparty scrapping tied up the last Senate-confirmed undersecretary for policy, Colin Kahl, and then-President Donald Trump withdrew his late-term pick for the job, Anthony Tata, amid a partisan split.

The Pentagon’s chief of staff serves as an adviser to the defense secretary on issues ranging from the U.S. military force abroad to how the Pentagon can be prepared technologically for the future. The position, unlike the top policy job for which Chollet was nominated, does not require confirmation from Congress.

Chollet’s appointment was first reported by The Washington Post.

The House’s nonpartisan ethics watchdog found “substantial reason to believe” that Texas Republican Reps. Ronny Jackson and Wesley Hunt used campaign money for personal or non-political purposes — on social club dues — according to reports released Monday.

Campaign finance laws prohibit lawmakers from spending campaign funds on dues that provide unlimited access at social or country clubs but allow campaign spending on political events at such clubs.

The outside Office of Congressional Ethics had previously probed $11,928.27 in payments from Jackson’s campaign to the Amarillo Club in his home state between October 2020 and January 2024. It’s not the first time the ethics watchdog investigated his campaign’s monthly payments there.

Following the investigation last Congress, Jackson’s campaign continued making monthly payments to the club but changed the category of spending from “Registration Fees” to other designations like “Membership Fees,” “Food/Beverage,” or “Membership for Exclusive Campaign Purposes,” the office said.

Neither Jackson nor the club cooperated with the investigation, according to the office. A Jackson spokesperson denounced the continued investigation as “baseless” and said it “raises no new information.”

Hunt had been investigated for a similar violation at the Oak Room, a social club in Houston. The office’s report noted that Hunt’s campaign had listed “Membership” at the club in its FEC filings, paying $5,412.50 to the club in dues and fees since April 2022. The OCE also highlighted a $43,626.52 payment to the club in November 2022 for “Facility Rental/Catering” and another $4,132.44 payment shortly after for “Catering.”

Hunt also didn’t cooperate with the probe, according to the report. His attorneys Chris K. Gober, Eric Wang and Anna Mackin denied any wrongdoing in a letter to the House Ethics Committee that was released along with the reports.

“All of the Hunt for Congress payments to the Post Oak Hotel, including for membership in the Post Oak Club, were exclusively for campaign-related purposes and not for any personal purposes,” they wrote. The large payments highlighted by the outside ethics office had covered Hunt’s election night party in 2022, they said.

The office has referred the cases to the House Ethics Committee for the evenly divided panel to review the matter. The Ethics Committee said in statements it would review the referrals and refrain from further comment until those reviews were complete.

This House GOP is about to add another item to their long list of abnormal events: voting to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in “inherent contempt.”

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said she will force a vote this week on the rarely used tool, which would direct the House sergeant at arms to take Garland into custody.

House Republicans have already voted to hold Garland in contempt of Congress — a still-uncommon but more frequently used weapon in the chamber’s arsenal — over his refusal to hand over audio of President Joe Biden’s interview with former special counsel Robert Hur. But the Justice Department quickly disclosed that, in line with long-standing policy, it won’t prosecute Garland for refusing to turn over records that fall under executive privilege.

Luna’s resolution is expected to come up under House rules that allow her to force a vote without GOP leadership’s approval. But it faces roadblocks to actually passing: Democrats, or even Luna’s own GOP colleagues, will likely move to table it or send it to committee. Either step would effectively block it.

Leadership has its own plans for what’s next on Garland; Speaker Mike Johnson said the House will instead take the fight over the Hur-Biden audio recordings to court. But that legal battle, Luna has lamented, would likely drag on for months and is unlikely to wrap before the November election.

“It is imperative that Congress uses its inherent contempt powers and instructs the Sergeant at Arms to bring Attorney General Garland to the House for questioning and compel him to produce the requested evidence,” Luna wrote to her colleagues in a letter on Monday.

“This power is not a mere formality, but a vital tool for us to carry out our legislative responsibilities. It is not enough to issue a subpoena; we must also have the power to enforce it,” she added in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO.

Here’s a few things to know about inherent contempt ahead of that vote:

UNUSED FOR ALMOST 90 YEARS

It would be the first time since 1935 that Congress has used the now archaic tool, though House Democrats mulled reviving it during the Trump administration to levy fines against individuals who didn’t comply with subpoenas. Then-Rep. Steve Stockman (R-Texas) also introduced a resolution in 2014 that would have allowed the House sergeant at arms to take former IRS official Lois Lerner into custody but the proposal was never taken up.

Underscoring how atypical the move is in modern history, none of the roughly 20 House Republicans surveyed by POLITICO, including members of the two committees who spearheaded the Garland contempt effort and vulnerable front-liners, knew how inherent contempt worked or what it is.

While Garland made calls to members ahead of the previous contempt vote, he has not called lawmakers on inherent contempt, one person familiar with the outreach told POLITICO.

VOTE LIKELY TO FAIL

Luna would need near unanimity within her conference to actually adopt the resolution, given what is expected to be unanimous Democratic opposition. That’s an uphill battle.

One Republican, Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), already opposed holding Garland in contempt, and with leadership leaning into the lawsuit route, Luna is likely to face broader skepticism within the conference.

But that tough whip operation doesn’t seem to be deterring her. In the Florida Republican’s Monday pitch to her colleagues, she said that the “urgency of this situation cannot be overstated” and that she looks forward to “each of you voting in favor of it.”

WHERE GARLAND COULD BE HELD

Luna’s resolution requires that Garland be brought “before the bar of the House of Representatives” to answer questions and that he be kept “in custody to await the further order of the House of Representatives.” One GOP lawmaker questioned, under the scenario, where the House would hold Garland and if there was actually a much-rumored Capitol jail.

There isn’t, to be clear. But the Capitol Police have holding facilities at their headquarters — and Luna noted in her letter they could also hold him in the Capitol building itself.

ANOTHER DRAGGED-OUT PROCESS

While Luna has argued that this would be a more efficient process than a court case, experts stress that the inherent contempt process could take months.

Experts on House process and procedure warn that an inherent contempt vote could trigger months and months of deliberations, from hashing out separation of powers authorities governing the initial arrest to a makeshift trial on the House floor. Adding in another curveball, Garland has a security detail due to his attorney general title, and it’s unclear how bringing a sitting Cabinet official into custody would play out, particularly given Biden’s assertion of executive privilege.

“Inherent contempt has been described as ‘unseemly,’ cumbersome, time-consuming, and relatively ineffective, especially for a modern Congress with a heavy legislative workload that would be interrupted by a trial at the bar,” according to a report on the process and history by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

Senate Democrats’ campaign arm will launch a series of ads in women-focused media outlets marking the two-year anniversary of the Supreme Court striking down Roe v. Wade.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ads will run on websites including Cosmopolitan, Harper’s Bazaar, Well Plated and more, and will be directed toward readers in Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Viewers who click through the ads will be directed to a new DSCC-backed website that targets individual GOP Senate candidates’ positions on abortion and other reproductive-health issues.

“The Republican overturn of Roe v. Wade and the escalating attacks it has triggered on women’s right to make their own medical decisions has ensured reproductive freedom will be a defining issue of the 2024 Senate elections,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) told POLITICO in a statement. “Voters will reject GOP candidates and protect Democrats’ Senate majority in November.”

The ad blitz comes as Senate Democratic leadership has been forcing votes on reproductive rights on the floor, including votes on access to contraception and in vitro fertilization. Republicans have consistently blocked the legislation from advancing, at times offering their own competing versions.

Reproductive rights have proven a fruitful issue for Democrats in elections since the Supreme Court overruled Roe on June 24, 2022. Outcomes of ballot referendums on abortion at the state level have consistently trended toward protecting access — and outrage over the downfall of Roe is still seen as a leading cause for Republicans failing to mount a red wave in the last midterms.

“The anniversary of the Republican Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade underscores the stakes of this year’s Senate elections and the importance of protecting Democrats’ Senate majority with the power to confirm or deny Supreme Court justices,” DSCC spokesperson Annie Lentz said in a statement.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said that President Joe Biden always respects the rule of law, so he is confident the president will accept whatever the Supreme Court rules in coming days as to whether former President Donald Trump is immune from prosecution.

“I think there’s a sharp contrast between former President Trump and President Biden in terms of their respect for the rule of law and how they approach both law enforcement and our legal system,” Coon said in an interview Sunday morning with Shannon Bream on “Fox News Sunday.”

When asked whether Biden would accept the decision of the Supreme Court expected this week — after criticizing the Supreme Court in the past for decisions related to his student loan forgiveness plans, among other things — Coons said Biden’s recent actions prove he respects the law and will do so if the court says Trump is immune from prosecution for actions taken during his presidency. The Democratic senator compared Biden’s handling of his son’s federal gun case to Trump’s recent guilty verdict from a New York jury as a “sharp and clear contrast in how they respect the rule of law.”

“Former President Trump was in a courtroom in New York where he attacked the prosecutor, the prosecution, the judge, the jury, the whole process so many times that before he was ultimately convicted by a jury of his peers of 34 felonies he was subject to a gag order,” Coons said. “President Biden, we just saw evidence of this this past week, his own son was convicted here in a court in Wilmington, Delaware, and he did not ever attack or criticize or question the judge, the prosecutor, the jury, the process.”

When pressed on the topic, Coons also said he has brought up his own issues about the Supreme Court — specifically on the lack of a code of ethics. He specifically called out Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas for accepting unreported gifts and travel over this time in the court and blamed Republican senators for blocking the proposed Supreme Court Ethics Recusal and Transparency Act.

“Every other federal judge in our country has a binding code of ethics. So does the Senate, so does the House,” Coons said. “I think the supreme court should as well.”

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) sent a letter to his GOP colleagues Sunday targeting proposed rule changes from the right flank of Senate Republicans — and offering some alternative ideas of his own.

The North Carolina senator has been vocally railing against Senate conservatives’ proposals — namely one that would impose a six-year term limit on the next Senate GOP leader, which he argues would weaken the position. Outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has echoed those concerns. In the letter, Tillis notes that the Senate Democrats’ leader has no term limits, nor does either party in the House.

“Mitch [McConnell] has been elected 9 times and 8 of those were unopposed,” Tillis wrote in the letter. “Nothing has prevented any member from mounting a challenge in the past. Having terms limits on the leader could make the political side of the job more difficult.”

But Tillis goes on to point out areas he suggests the conference could improve. He specifically compared Senate Republican conference rules to Senate Democrats’ caucus rules — and outlined differences that he thinks give Senate Democratic leaders a leg up. He said he is not outright “advocating” for any rules changes, but instead “providing food for thought on how we could address some of the frustrations of our members.”

It’s the latest evidence of Senate Republicans’ rift over the future of their party conference, where the race to succeed McConnell is ramping up. Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) have all entered the race, and questions over new rules they’d support are becoming centerpoints of their bids.

Among those differences in party rules, Tillis noted the Senate Democratic leader gets to appoint the chair of the caucus’ campaign arm, a selection that is “ratified by the conference.” He said allowing the Republican leader, who currently does not appoint the Republican campaign-arm chair, to do the same could prevent intraparty friction.

“Having the leader nominate the [National Republican Senatorial Committee] chair subject to conference ratification could make it more likely the NRSC chair will be in alignment with the priorities of the Republican leader and reduce the risk of conflicts in messaging and priorities,” Tillis wrote.

The senator also pointed out differences in the committee-assignments process between Republicans and Democrats. Currently, the Democratic leader is in charge of filling all open committee spots, while the Republican leader has more limited power over such assignments.

Tillis wrote that expanding the GOP leader’s authority over committee assignments to match Democrats’ “could empower the leader to position members on committees most likely to carry the agenda of the majority of the conference forward.”

The senator identified a number of other proposals, including tweaks to the amendments process and rules for blocking action on the floor. He also proposed new conditions that would compel the leader to close a vote that’s gone past its allotted time if just one member has not voted and that member’s vote would not change the outcome, among other parameters. That would speed up votes on the Senate floor, which regularly go on for an hour or more as members trot in and out.

“These could be adopted by a vote of the conference and would be non-binding to members but would serve more as public guiding principles,” Tillis wrote.

There’s a long time between now and the leadership elections, when the bulk of these ideas within the conference will be put on the hot spot. And other ideas for rules changes are likely to come out as GOP senators decide which leadership candidates they’ll throw their weight behind.

But Tillis said he was just getting started.

“This is by no means an exhaustive list. I share it as a starting point for a discussion of the pros and cons of any changes as we make our first transition in conference leadership in 18 years,” Tillis added. “Looking forward, I believe a thorough discussion of these, and other ideas would be a good use of our time.”

Senate conservatives have a list of early demands for anyone who wants to replace Mitch McConnell: Commit to term limits on the top spot, revamp internal committee assignments and do not bend to Democrats, even on must-pass legislation.

That pressure has turned willingness to work across the aisle into the preeminent wedge issue in the race for GOP leader as Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) fight for supporters behind the scenes.

It reflects the right flank’s growing frustration with the longest-serving Republican leader’s occasional interest in working with the other side on issues like spending, infrastructure and foreign aid — a criticism considered laughable less than a decade ago. Few younger Republicans recall McConnell’s longtime reputation as the “Grim Reaper” who killed Democratic bills, or his zeal in blocking Merrick Garland from a spot on the Supreme Court.

But the GOP leader has steered his conference away from government shutdowns, preferring to compromise and move on rather than see voters blame his party for the resulting mess. Senate conservatives, buoyed by former President Donald Trump’s bombastic style of politicking, argue that’s an antiquated way of thinking.

“Compromise is not the problem,” said Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). “The problem is where you choose to make the deals and where you draw the line, in particular in spending bills. Yeah, I got a problem with how they’ve been drawn.”

Hardline Republicans like Lee, though they’re in the minority of the GOP, are pushing back against a more conciliatory wing of their conference that sees the Senate as a bastion of bipartisan collaboration in a broken capital. So, Lee is pushing leadership hopefuls and colleagues to join a pledge to block all “political and judicial” nominees for the rest of the term and muck up Democratic legislative priorities — tactics the right launched after Donald Trump was convicted.

Still, in a Senate where neither party is close to the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster, many Republicans say there are limits to how many wins they can stack up — especially in the minority.

It’s a dynamic that McConnell is very familiar with.

“I read that one of my colleagues said my job was to be with whatever position was the majority position of my conference,” McConnell said in an interview earlier this spring, addressing internal criticism of his leadership.

Had that been the case, McConnell added, “we would have never raised the debt ceiling and never funded the government.”

The GOP leader has also publicly and privately advocated against weakening the leader’s power, including at a private conference lunch this month. He and allies argue conservative proposals like term limits would hamstring the leader, affecting the ability to fundraise and avert legislative disaster.

“[McConnell] has strong feelings about the role of the leader and what’s necessary for a successful conference,” said Cornyn, referring to McConnell’s comments at the closed-door meeting. “That’s what I concluded from it.”

Thune said McConnell has relayed his concerns to the conference and that he believes “everybody will take his advice to heart.” Cornyn had endorsed putting a three-term limit on the leader, as has Scott, while Thune has said it’s worth discussing but made no firm commitments.

Asked about the general conservative complaints, Cornyn said he’s not running his leadership race through the press and declined to weigh in on how he’d tackle bipartisanship as leader. Thune, the current GOP whip, said he understands his fellow senators’ perspective but that “if there are things that we have to get done, then I’ve got to be able to do that.” Scott, who’s previously challenged McConnell, said he is advocating for strengthened committees and “a robust amendment process” for input on legislation.

Forcing the Senate GOP leader to get a majority of Republicans on board for every action is almost surely impossible in practice. On a day-to-day-basis, though, some of the conference’s most rabble-rousing are questioning GOP leaders’ day-to-day strategies.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a McConnell critic, said he feels rank-and-file members don’t get enough input and alleged that current leadership likes “to stay as far away from members as possible.”

“Don’t listen, don’t talk to members. Don’t listen to any priorities,” he said, describing the status quo in the Senate GOP. “And try to manipulate them into getting them to do what you want them to do.”

McConnell and his leadership team attend weekly party lunches to discuss conference matters, including member pushback to legislation or other issues. And McConnell has at times backed away from legislation when it’s lost the support of his conference, like the recent border deal negotiated between Senate Democrats and Republicans earlier this year.

Still, McConnell critics like Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said “we have a leadership vacuum right now. We’re pretty well rudderless.”

Johnson is among those who has signed Lee’s letter vowing to block nominees on the Senate floor in response to Trump’s conviction, which has become something of a litmus test among ambitious conservatives. Scott has signed on, as has Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who is competing for the conference’s No. 3 spot.

Yet multiple signers of the letter have since supported some Biden nominees, underscoring just how difficult it is for leaders to stonewall action in a chamber that relies on frequent agreements among all 100 members.

There is a second Senate GOP pledge circulating to block all judicial and U.S. attorney nominees, specifically targeting those who “have suggested the Trump prosecutions were reasonable.” Fewer senators have co-signed that effort, and no leadership candidates have endorsed it.

The long list of demands coming from the right is reminding some Senate Republicans of last year’s speaker’s race, where conservatives tried to hold former Speaker Kevin McCarthy to a lofty list of promises in exchange for electing him to lead the chamber. Once elected, they’d hoped McCarthy would avoid working with Democrats as much as possible.

When the impending breach of the debt limit forced McCarthy to work across the aisle, his ouster became all but assured. The monthlong chaos that followed his exit left many House Republicans openly embarrassed about their disarray.

Some Senate GOP dealmakers are worried they’re about to perform a cover of McCarthy’s sad ballad, warning that it’s misguided to slap handcuffs on the incoming leader before he or she even tries to guide the conference.

“We will be making an enormous mistake if we let a minority of our members further weaken an already weak leader,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). He charged that some Senate Republicans “are just not paying attention to the reality of what has occurred as a result of that in the House.”

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), among the most bipartisan-friendly senators in the chamber, said McConnell has done “what he thinks is right.” And as for the next leader, she added, “I don’t think it’s going to change.”

She may be proven right. The November leadership elections are still months away, and votes are cast in private. That means even the conference’s most vocal rabble-rousers are protected from public scrutiny, should they choose to vote for a pragmatic candidate.

In addition, other leadership hopefuls could still hop into the race. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who chairs the conference’s campaign arm, remains the most prominent possible contender. If Election Day proves fruitful for the Senate GOP, Daines could jump in and make it interesting: He’s a staunch conservative who is already backing a tough legislative response to Trump’s conviction.

Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), a pugnacious first-term lawmaker, said he’s still open-minded about the leadership race. But as he talks to candidates, he’s looking for a change agent.

“I just want to make sure that our conference is in touch with our voters, right? And the people who send us here want us to fight for certain things. I want our agenda to reflect that,” Schmitt said. “That will be important for whoever the next leader is.”

The White House has grown anxious about Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming address to a joint session of Congress, believing the Israeli prime minister could use the forum to criticize President Joe Biden for not supporting the retaliation against Hamas in Gaza enough.

The speech next month could create a diplomatically complicated and politically dicey spectacle for a president running for reelection. Fears among West Wing aides have grown in recent days as Netanyahu has made a series of public statements — including one in a video address delivered in English — accusing the administration of withholding more military aid than has been publicly disclosed.

“[Netanyahu’s] video this week was not helpful at all,” said one senior official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal deliberations. “And he could make it far worse up there in front of Congress.”

Another senior official put it more bluntly: “No one knows what he’s going to say.”

Frictions have deepened between Biden and Netanyahu since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, with Biden aides increasingly believing that the Israeli leader is prolonging the conflict to stay in power — and that he would prefer Donald Trump return to the White House. And the war has created a thorny political dilemma for Biden, who has been slammed by Republicans for insufficiently supporting Israel yet at the same time also taken heat from some members of his own party for not protecting Palestinian civilians.

But the accusations lobbed by Netanyahu over the past few days have put the relationship at a new nadir, taking the West Wing by surprise and leaving Biden aides deeply frustrated, according to the officials. The Biden administration postponed a high-level U.S.-Israel meeting on Iran after the release of Netanyahu’s video.

“We genuinely do not know what he’s talking about,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said this week. She, and other aides, insisted that only one shipment was paused, with no other changes to weapons transfers.

As of this week, the White House had yet to send an invitation for Netanyahu to meet with Biden when he comes to Washington for his scheduled speech on July 24, according to the first senior official and two others. Those officials stressed that such an invitation will likely be offered — noting that it would be a major slap in the face if the two leaders did not meet and that Biden was not inclined to make such a public rebuke of his Israeli counterpart.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the invitation.

But meetings have been taking place at slightly lower levels. Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer met Thursday at the White House with national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The group discussed the war against Hamas, the state of Gaza and Netanyahu’s forthcoming visit. The video — and the rancor it caused in Washington — was briefly mentioned, two U.S. officials said.

Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, hinted at the message Blinken delivered in the meeting.

“I don’t think it’s productive to engage in an intense public back and forth about this,” he told reporters Thursday, adding that Blinken in a meeting with Netanyahu last week assured the prime minister “our commitment to Israel’s security is sacrosanct.”

Inside the West Wing, aides believe that Netanyahu will use the congressional speech to address his audience at home as much as in the U.S., according to one of the senior officials. The prime minister will likely express gratitude for the United States’ help and stress the longstanding alliance between the two nations. But aides also anticipate that Netanyahu will ask for more assistance without any conditions — something they suspect will be icily received by Democrats.

The big unknown, the senior official admitted, is if Netanyahu will use the moment to offer any specific criticisms of Biden or his response to Israel’s operations in Gaza. The West Wing is keenly aware of Netanyahu’s precarious domestic political situation, in which he is trying to placate the far-right members of his coalition who want further escalation of the war against Hamas. For the prime minister, being perceived at home as fighting Biden could be helpful.

Airing his grievances about arms transfers with the Biden administration openly, Netanyahu told Punchbowl News in an interview published Friday, “was absolutely necessary after months of quiet conversation that did not solve the problem.”

“I’m not a partisan, I’m not a Republican or a Democrat. I’m an Israeli patriot, and I speak on behalf of the Israeli people,” he continued.

Netanyahu has used speeches to Congress for his political purposes before, infuriating the Obama-Biden White House when he addressed a joint session in 2015 to attack that administration’s proposed Iran nuclear deal.

That 2015 speech was not received well by progressive Democrats, who have only grown more critical of Netanyahu since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. Democrats have chastised the Israeli PM for disregarding humanitarian concerns in Gaza and empowering a far-right government in Israel.

“I didn’t attend last time, for obvious reasons,” said Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.). “I think that Americans are becoming more deeply concerned about what is being done to taxpayer dollars as it relates to what’s happening in that region.”

Some progressives, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), have indicated they will skip the late July speech.

Shadowing the address is the long-term status of U.S. aid to Israel. The White House helped shepherd a massive weapons package through Congress and has consistently signed off on additional arms shipments. But it withheld a shipment of 3,500 bombs believing they would cause unnecessary devastation if used on the densely populated city of Rafah.

Around that time, House Republicans invited Netanyahu to speak before Congress. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a strong Israel supporter but a vocal Netanyahu critic, dropped initial reservations about the address and assented to the invitation. “The White House was not surprised by the invitation,” said a Schumer spokesperson.

A year ago, Netanyahu sought a White House meeting with Biden in the midst of a backlash at home to his proposal to overhaul Israel’s judicial system. The president, who had spoken out against the changes, declined, and instead met with the Israeli prime minister on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

Not even three weeks later, Hamas terrorists stormed over the Israeli border, propelling the region into war and irrevocably changing the dynamic between the two leaders.