A deal to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies is looking more uncertain as Senate Republicans push to make headway Friday on ending the longest-ever government shutdown.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has promised Democrats a floor vote to prevent the enhanced subsidies from expiring at the end of the year. But Senate Democrats are splintered over how much stock to put into Thune’s commitment, given the South Dakota Republican has also said he cannot guarantee an outcome of any such vote.

Some lawmakers argue they should hold out for a concrete deal on an extension before voting to reopen the government. Others believe they could make real progress on a bipartisan framework after the government reopens, building on negotiations this fall.

Democrats are now wrestling with their options as Thune plans to force a vote Friday afternoon that would tee up consideration of a new government funding package to allow federal operations to resume. This vote is likely to fail but it presents an opportunity for some Democrats to break rank as the shutdown pain grows more severe.

At stake is a policy that Democrats argue will help millions of Americans who are set to get hit by skyrocketing premiums in 2026. It’s also putting to the test Democrats’ trust that a massively complex and politically loaded issue can be solved through old-fashioned bipartisan negotiations, with many Democrats skeptical that Republicans will ever follow through on the issue once the shutdown ends.

“This is the old days of making sure you write it into black letter law. That’s what we do when we write bills. We haven’t seen that yet,” Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), whose panel has jurisdiction over the ACA premium tax credits, told reporters Thursday.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) has also been urging his colleagues to not vote to reopen the government without clear signs the subsidies would be extended, arguing that the party’s victories in elections across the country earlier this week sent a signal that voters want Democrats to keep up the fight.

“I have obviously expressed my reservations about agreeing to only a vote without a certainty of outcome,” said Murphy in an interview Thursday. “I don’t think that we should proceed without knowing that these health care premiums are not going to go up by 200 percent.”

“We’ve been talking all day today inside the caucus about what a path forward is, whether it’s negotiations that some of our colleagues have been having, or is it a different path?” Murphy added.

Those negotiations are largely being spearheaded by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Angus King (I-Maine) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), opposite rank-and-file Senate Republicans. According to two people granted anonymity to share details of ongoing conversations, Senate Democratic negotiators have been exchanging details of proposals and white papers with their Republican counterparts.

One person pointed to these discussions as evidence of “willingness from Senate Republicans to come to the table if the government is reopened,” though the other person noted that the exchange of white paper is not necessarily a strong signal of progress being made.

A third person added that this paper-trading was paused a couple weeks ago, anyway, when Republican leaders made it known they wouldn’t seriously negotiate the terms of a framework until after the government reopens.

“We’ve made it very clear that you open up government, and then we can work on a solution that will actually stand the test of time — including one that our president could perhaps consider supporting and convincing the House to support but nothing is going to happen until we open up government,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.).

Internal differences on the policy are not Democrats’ only problem. Even if Democrats get a vote on an extension of the Obamacare subsidies in the Senate, House Speaker Mike Johnson won’t commit to putting such a bill on the House floor, saying Thursday morning that he’s not “promising anybody anything.” Johnson is facing heavy resistance from his right flank on the issue, with members of the House Freedom Caucus promising to revolt if the subsidies are extended.

Democrats also have to figure out which modifications to the credits they are willing to accept. Some proposals pushed by Republicans, like those that would put an income cap on the credits, appear palatable, while other ideas like restricting the subsidies from plans that cover abortion promise to be non-starters.

“I would call that exceedingly frustrating. There’s several unanswered questions, and that’s one of them,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), when asked about Johnson’s refusal to commit to a vote, in an interview Thursday. “I understand the position that the speaker’s in politically, but that’s why President [Donald] Trump could get all this done. Because he could, if he got involved and pushed a negotiation, he could give Speaker Johnson the cover he needs to give it a vote in the House.”

The White House has, however, given congressional Republicans little to work with. Trump has so far been silent on the issue publicly, while people inside his administration are reportedly divided on whether to let the subsidies expire or extend them for the purposes of political preservation in next year’s midterms.

Besides exhorting Trump to get involved, some freshmen senators who won their seats after serving in the House are hoping that their relationships with their old GOP colleagues could spur momentum for a bipartisan proposal. Democratic Sens. Andy Kim of New Jersey and Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware invited GOP Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey to huddle Friday morning to see if they can find a way forward.

One possible idea being broached by some Senate Democrats includes having House counterparts pursue a discharge petition, a procedural maneuver allowing rank-and-file members to force a vote on legislation without the blessing of leadership. In this case, though, it’s not clear whether enough Republicans would sign onto a bill to extend the subsidies to clear the necessary 218-signature threshold to get the measure onto the floor.

“A number of us that have come out of the House recently and have relationships in the House want to have a dialogue with our House Republican counterparts to see whether there’s a way to work forward to extend the Affordable Care tax credits and find our way out of this both health crisis and government shutdown,” said Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), one of the first-term lawmakers engaged in talks.

As for Johnson refusing to commit to a vote, Schiff said, “He’ll do whatever Donald Trump tells him to do.”

Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is dangling another carrot for Democrats. They still aren’t ready to bite.

In his latest pressure tactic, the South Dakota Republican is teeing up yet another vote to reopen the government Friday, the 38th day of the record-setting shutdown. But this time, he is pledging to swap out the House-passed stopgap bill for a new funding patch, likely into January, along with full-year funding for veterans programs, food aid and more.

“It’s what they asked for,” Thune said Thursday night.

But Democrats, stiffened by their party’s big election wins Tuesday that have papered over rising internal divisions, are expected to block a procedural vote yet again, according to two people granted anonymity to describe caucus dynamics, as well as interviews with several potential Democratic swing votes.

They are intent on forcing President Donald Trump and fellow Republicans to cough up a better deal and finally engage on their central demand — an extension of expiring health insurance subsidies that aren’t definitively addressed in the latest GOP offer.

“Leader Thune isn’t doing himself any favors by not coming to the table,” said Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who has been viewed as a possible swing vote but said she would vote no Friday.

Several other Democrats professed unity coming out of a long lunch meeting Thursday — one of several they’ve held this week as they’ve wrangled over an endgame to the long shutdown.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the No. 2 party leader, said Thursday that Democrats “are as unified as we have ever been,” while adding that “people understand the gravity of the shutdown.”

But those proclamations belied the behind-the-scenes tensions between a group of Democratic senators who believe the time has come to reopen the government and the caucus’ progressive bloc, which is aghast at the idea of surrendering without a health care deal, especially after Tuesday’s elections.

“They’ve got to stand up, and they’ve got to fight,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said of his fellow caucus members in a brief interview Thursday night. “They have the American people at their back. And Republicans are going to have to come to the table and recognize they just cannot double premiums for millions of Americans in this country.” 

Other corners of the caucus, however, believe Sanders and his allies — who have not participated in the bipartisan talks — are simply wanting to brawl with Republicans without having a realistic plan to bring the longest shutdown on record to an end.

The progressives “have yet to articulate any sense whatsoever of how they think this ends or any proposal to get Republicans to the table other than waiting longer and longer,” said a Senate Democratic aide who was granted anonymity to comment candidly about caucus dynamics. “And in the meantime it’s the families who can afford it the least that are increasingly getting walloped by the shutdown.”

“We are not going to get a better offer,” another Democratic aide involved in the bipartisan talks added.

That’s the case the Senate Democrats who have been negotiating have been trying to make privately to their colleagues, and they believed they were gaining traction earlier this week. But the sweeping election gains Tuesday fired up other Democrats and left many wondering if Republicans would offer new concessions.

Progress has been made in recent days toward finalizing a three-bill package that would fund some federal agencies through September, one that would be attached to a stopgap bill to reopen the rest of the government for just a few months. Republicans are also discussing whether a final deal can involve rehiring thousands of federal workers who were laid off during the shutdown — a new element first reported by POLITICO Thursday.

But according to a person granted anonymity to describe the sensitive talks, there has been no new GOP offer on health care. Republicans are willing to commit to a future vote to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies by an agreed-upon date but they have not moved off their position that the government must reopen first. Nor has there been any progress in getting Trump or Speaker Mike Johnson to guarantee a path forward for any Senate-forged compromise.

“I’ve made this very clear to them that I can’t guarantee them an outcome — I can guarantee them a process,” Thune said Thursday. “We’ve had that conversation multiple times already.”

As senators left the Capitol around dinnertime Thursday, they still didn’t know what exactly Thune would be asking them to vote on Friday. To allow more time for talks to progress, the Senate won’t come into session until noon Friday, and a time hasn’t yet been scheduled for the promised vote.

If it fails as currently expected, it’s unclear what Thune might do next. Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the No. 2 GOP leader, said Thursday the Senate would stay in session over the weekend, but senators could head home — potentially for a scheduled weeklong Veterans Day recess — if there’s no hope of a breakthrough.

The uncertainty had weary senators questioning whether the end is truly in sight.

“We’ve been talking for days, but there’s no product,” said Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, who is among the Democrats considered most likely to support a bipartisan compromise. “I’m hopeful we can find a way through this over the weekend.”

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who has been closely engaged in the bipartisan talks, said Thursday night there is “no organized effort at this point that is bearing fruit.”

“There are attempts to find a way to bring people forward, but I’m discouraged,” he added. “I’m hoping that overnight things might change a little bit, but I’m not optimistic.”

Jennifer Scholtes, Mia McCarthy, Katherine Tully-McManus, Meredith Lee Hill and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.

SAN FRANCISCO — Nancy Pelosi’s decision to retire was such a closely-held secret that she filmed two versions of the video she released on Thursday — one to tee up a reelection campaign and the other that she ultimately posted.

Some of her closest political allies were not informed until late the night before, some not until about five minutes beforehand, according to a Pelosi adviser and two allies granted anonymity to discuss the run-up to her announcement.

For months, Pelosi, the first female speaker of the House and one of the most powerful women in modern American politics, had come under pressure in her district to step aside, now 85 and at one end of her party’s widening generational divide. Most observers here expected she would not run again in 2026.Few could say for sure, however, because with the exception of a handful of her immediate family members and close advisers, Pelosi had worked to keep everyone in her hometown guessing.

Pelosi’s entire career stood on her reputation as a sharp tactician, a steady vote counter with an iron grip on her caucus. Her announcement Thursday was yet another act of highly controlled stagecraft.

“She was going to make an announcement on her own terms, her own turf,” said an adviser. “We kept a very small circle.”

Fewer than 10 of Pelosi’s family members and closest advisers knew what her decision was until the night before, according to an adviser. That evening, she called a few power brokers to share her decision, the adviser said, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie.

Pelosi didn’t even hint at her impending exit during a Wednesday afternoon conference call with California’s House delegation, according to three people in the meeting. Nor did she tip her hand when she spoke up during a conference call with the full Democratic Caucus earlier Wednesday, when she delivered one of her trademark attack lines, described by three people familiar with the call, saying of Republicans and cuts to food assistance: “They pray in church on Sunday and prey on people the rest of the week.”

Instead, the San Francisco political universe learned about Pelosi’s news early Thursday morning when she posted a lengthy and emotional video to social media.

Her announcement prompted an outpouring of tributes from prominent Democrats, from former President Joe Biden to Newsom. Even some conservatives like Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and former Speaker Paul Ryan offered kind words. But the occasion also prompted top Republicans — who will be deprived of a chief antagonist after she leaves office — to renew their caricatures of Pelosi as an out-of-touch coastal liberal.

The video, more of a love letter to Pelosi’s hometown than a retirement message, was filmed this past weekend. Because she made two versions, even those who knew about the video before it was posted were unsure of her decision.

“I want you, my fellow San Franciscans, to be the first to know: I will not be seeking reelection to Congress,” Pelosi said in the video. “With a grateful heart, I look forward to my final year of service as your proud representative.”

Said Rep. Mark Takano of California: “I was prepared for a message either way.”

Pelosi, if she ran again, would have faced a tough field of primary challengers next year, and a wing of the Democratic Party calling for generational change. Those vying to succeed her include Scott Wiener, a prominent state lawmaker, and Saikat Chakrabarti, a wealthy former tech executive and chief of staff to New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

But Pelosi’s decision to step aside had been in the works for months, according to an ally familiar with her planning.

Then, Pelosi reaped a gift with her timing, waiting until after Tuesday’s special election, when California voters overwhelmingly approved a Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional map.

It was a victory for Pelosi — and a thumb in the eye to President Donald Trump, who pushed Texas Republicans to redraw their map first. Trump told Fox News on Thursday that she was “evil, corrupt, and only focused on bad things for our country.”

But it was Pelosi’s party that bested Trump in California on Tuesday. She raised tens of millions of dollars and spent the fall crisscrossing the state to campaign for California’s redistricting measure, which could deliver Democrats five additional seats next year.

On election night, Pelosi cheered the outcome with about 100 union volunteers and supporters on the patio of a barbecue restaurant in San Francisco’s Castro district. Most had no idea Pelosi would retire 48 hours later — and several said they hoped she would run again.

“There was a part of me that expected this at some point. I was frankly holding out a little hope that we would get through another election cycle,” said Rudy Gonzalez, a leader of San Francisco’s building trades union and close Pelosi ally.

He added, “No matter who gets elected in the future, nobody is going to be able to fill those heels.”

SAN FRANCISCO — Nancy Pelosi, the first female speaker of the House and one of the most powerful women in modern American politics, will retire from Congress next year.

The San Francisco Democrat, who announced her decision Thursday, had come under increasing pressure to step aside amid her party’s widening generational divide. Now 85, she defied political observers in 2023 when she ran for a 20th congressional term despite Democrats losing the House and her speakership the year before. But next year, she faced a tougher-than-expected group of primary challengers.

“I will not be seeking reelection to Congress. With a grateful heart, I look forward to my final year of service as your proud representative,” Pelosi said in a lengthy and emotional video posted on social media and addressed to San Franciscans.

One of the most formidable political tacticians of her generation, Pelosi had deflected speculation for months about her plans. Her announcement came two days after California voters overwhelmingly approved a measure to redraw the state’s congressional map to favor Democrats in next year’s midterm elections.

The question of Pelosi’s retirement timeline has for years been the subject of feverish speculation in San Francisco, a deep-blue and politics-obsessed city that has produced a stream of national Democratic leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris. But Pelosi had hinted that she would make a major announcement after Tuesday’s election.

Now, the departure of one of the nation’s most recognizable Democrats, who was first elected to Congress in a 1987 special election, marks the end of an era. It also sets off a cascade of campaign maneuvering here as Democrats seize on the once-in-a-generation opportunity of an open House seat in this center of Democratic politics. And in Washington, Pelosi’s coming departure will prompt questions about the political futures of her senior-ranking congressional allies.

Pelosi already faced two serious Democratic challengers: Saikat Chakrabarti, a wealthy former tech executive and progressive organizer, and Scott Wiener, a prominent state lawmaker who has been angling to succeed Pelosi for years.

Another potential contender for the seat is San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, a progressive force inside City Hall who, much like Pelosi, is closely aligned with the city’s powerful labor movement. Pelosi has recently heaped attention on Chan, who’s been featured alongside the former speaker at several recent campaign events.

Pelosi’s departure will deprive Republicans of a chief antagonist they have used as a visceral foil since long before the Trump era — part of a decades-long effort by the GOP to cast Pelosi as a caricature of coastal elite liberalism.

Pelosi, while fading from center stage after stepping aside from her leadership post, continued to wield clout in party politics. She campaigned across the state this fall in support of Democrats’ redistricting measure and was central to the effort to resist President Donald Trump’s cuts to Medicaid and federal safety-net programs. Last year, Pelosi moved behind the scenes to help convince former President Joe Biden not to run for another term. And she’s continued to be a sounding board for Hill Democrats, including her successor, Hakeem Jeffries.

Some Pelosi allies said in recent days that they hoped she would run again, predicting she could help boost Democrats in the midterms.

“She’s back in her five-inch heels. This is not someone who gets lost in the hallways,” said Oakland Rep. Lateefah Simon, a first-term member who counts Pelosi as a mentor and described her as a force at the Capitol even after leaving leadership and recovering from an injury last year. “She has been one of the most consequential legislators in American history. That loss is going to be deeply felt.”

Pelosi has often said she meant to retire years ago but stayed on Capitol Hill to defend the Affordable Care Act — one of her crowning achievements as speaker — amid threats from Republicans. Then, she found herself embroiled in her party’s yearslong power struggle with Trump, who she, like many Democrats, cast as a threat to democracy.

Her farewell video, posted on social media, recalls highlights of Pelosi’s career, including leading efforts to rebuild in San Francisco after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, responding to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, helping to create the city’s Presidio national park site and her trailblazing status as the first female speaker.

“I have truly loved serving as your voice in Congress, and I’ve always honored the song of Saint Francis, ‘Lord make me an instrument of thy peace,’ the anthem of our city,” Pelosi said. “That is why I want you, my fellow San Franciscans, to be the first to know.”

Pelosi also faced personal struggles in recent years that fueled speculation about her political future. Just before the 2022 midterms, David DePape broke into the Pelosis’ San Francisco mansion and attacked Paul Pelosi with a hammer. He was sentenced to life in prison on a slew of state and federal charges. And last year, she underwent hip replacement surgery after suffering an injury while traveling.

Pelosi, in a 2022 documentary by her daughter, filmmaker Alexandra Pelosi, reflected on the accomplishments and travails of her speakership — offering a sobering yet unapologetic take.

“Being speaker makes you a target — a target of misinformation, a target of mockery and sometimes a target of violence,” Pelosi said, before quoting from a prayer she once saw in Africa: “When one day I meet my maker … he will say to me: ‘Show me your wounds.’ … I’m proud of my wounds.”