Any possible extension of soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies will need to get 60 votes, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday as rank-and-file lawmakers close in on a deal that could reopen the government and pave the way for additional heath care talks.

Democrats have privately floated an arrangement for the Senate to hold a vote to extend the subsidies at a simple-majority threshold rather than the 60-vote margin for most legislation. Thune rejected the idea, saying there was “no way” that would happen.

“Honestly, think about what the Democrats are asking us to do here,” he told reporters. “They’re saying it’s going to take 60 just to fund the government, but we want to have a vote on a massive sort of piece of health care legislation at 51.”

Agreeing to a health care vote would be part of a larger shutdown-ending deal the rank-and-file senators are discussing. It would also include advancing a new stopgap spending bill, moving some full-year funding bills, plus holding a guaranteed vote once the government reopens on the ACA subsidies, which expire Dec. 31.

Thune said he was open to another possibility under discussion: attaching the full-year Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA and Legislative Branch appropriations bills to an updated stopgap.

The terms of the health care vote are not the only sticking point. Republicans are divided over how long a temporary funding bill should run that would allow lawmakers to write new long-term spending legislation. Thune previously told POLITICO he believes the stopgap needs to go into 2026 but hasn’t ruled out a tighter timeline favored by some GOP appropriators.

Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed Tuesday he, too, wants to avoid a holiday-season jam. He is facing intense pressure from GOP hard-liners who want to push the deadline into March — if not later in the year.

“I’m not a fan of extending it to December,” Johnson said.

Thune said Monday he hopes to have a new stopgap ready to send back to the House by the end of the week. He said Tuesday that senators could work into the weekend if they are on a “glide path” to ending the 35-day shutdown.

Johnson also confirmed the House will return to Washington if the Senate passes a deal to reopen the government. He separately told House Republicans on Tuesday that the House would return “as soon as possible” after the Senate acts, according to four people granted anonymity to describe the private call. Leaders confirmed members would get 48 hours notice, the people said.

Under Thune’s best-case timeline, that would bring the House back early next week — ending what would be a seven-week recess.

The shutdown is barreling into a record-breaking sixth week and Senate Democrats are divided on their strategy for getting out of the morass.

On one side of the split screen, nearly a dozen Democrats are laying the groundwork for talks with Republicans that could bring an end to the partisan stalemate.

Bipartisan conversations so far have focused on passing a new funding patch to reopen federal agencies, reaching an understanding on moving full-year appropriations bills and guaranteeing a floor vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), as she left a meeting with fellow Democrats Monday night, said in an interview she hoped for a resolution in the coming days.

On the other side of that screen, many of Shaheen’s colleagues are still demanding Democrats dig in until Republicans promise to extend the ACA tax credits.

“We have the moral responsibility to stand up and fight for the 15 million people who are about to lose health care,” Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats, said in an interview Monday. “What the polling tells me, and what I believe to be true, is that the vast majority of the American people are behind us not to give in to Trump or the Republicans.”

Fellow progressive Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are also calling on Democrats not to wave a white flag.

The Democrats’ intraparty fissure comes as Republicans grow emboldened in their own shutdown posture, with some believing they might be able to flip enough Democrats as soon as this week to pass a stopgap the House can clear for President Donald Trump’s signature.

There are signs of bipartisan momentum in the House as well, where two Democrats and two Republicans teamed up Monday to unveil the first tangible compromise framework for extending the ACA subsidies since the shutdown began (more on that below).

It’s all likely coming as a relief for Senate Republicans amid Trump’s calls to get rid of the filibuster to end the shutdown without help from Democrats — a move that would carry enormous political risks and doesn’t have the support among Republicans, anyway.

“The votes aren’t there,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Monday.

Despite cautious optimism there are plenty of differences still to overcome, from internal strategy in both parties to the practical matter of how far out to push the end date for a new continuing resolution.

Senators are currently debating whether to craft a funding patch that would run through December, the preference of senior appropriators, or January, desired by most Republicans. Democratic leadership hasn’t endorsed a deadline yet.

Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she’s feeling hopeful about all of it, but “who knows — it could all fall apart.”

What else we’re watching:   

— House eyes possible return: House Republicans will hold a virtual conference meeting Tuesday, where Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to talk his conference through the status of government shutdown negotiations with the Senate. If the Senate can pass an amended stopgap spending measure by the end of this week, the House would likely return to session next week following more than 45 days of recess.

— Mamdani endorsement watch: It’s Election Day in New York City — and the last day for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to endorse Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor. Schumer has given no indication he plans to do so, saying last week he was having conversations with the democratic socialist but declining to offer his public support.

Mia McCarthy, Calen Razor, Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

The top aide to Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García filed paperwork Monday to run for her boss’ seat — a move that signals the longtime Chicago Democrat might be preparing to retire from Congress.

Patty García submitted her nominating petitions in the final hour before the filing deadline, effectively closing the door to any additional Democratic challengers. As a result, the Democratic primary ballot will feature only her and Rep. García unless he drops out.

The two Garcías are not related. Neither returned requests for comment Monday.

One person close to Rep. García’s camp who was granted anonymity to discuss the situation ahead of a public announcement said the four-term incumbent does not plan to run.

If Rep. Garcia, 69, decides to withdraw, his chief of staff would automatically become the party’s nominee — and, in a safely blue district anchored on Chicago’s West Side, would almost certainly win the seat.

Garcia wouldn’t be the first Chicago politician to make such a move. In 2004, after winning his Democratic primary, Democratic Rep. Bill Lipinski chose not to seek reelection.

He convinced the Illinois Democratic Party to substitute his name on the ballot with that of his son, Dan Lipinski, who subsequently won the general election and served in Congress until 2021.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he was “optimistic” an agreement can be reached this week to end the five-week shutdown as bipartisan rank-and-file talks make progress.

Thune, speaking to reporters, said the goal was to be able to send a revised stopgap bill to the House by the end of the week to reopen agencies.

“Obviously there were a lot of conversations over the weekend, and hopefully that will bring about the desired result,” Thune said.

The Senate is expected to extend the Nov. 21 expiration date of the House-passed funding punt for at least several more weeks. Thune previously told POLITICO that the deadline would need to be extended to at least January, but he hasn’t yet endorsed a specific timeline. GOP leaders are discussing a new deadline that would fall between late January and March.

Thune said on Monday that he is “open” to January but in listening mode as he faces competing demands within his conference.

“The longer sort of runway there is better,” he said.

The bipartisan group of rank-and-file senators has been discussing how to package a short-term funding patch that would reopen the government with a plan to move full-year funding bills and give Democrats a vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies.

Senators involved in the talks believe they are making progress, and while Thune said he was personally “optimistic” a shutdown off-ramp could be imminent, he said he wasn’t yet “confident.”

Republicans are hoping that more Democrats will signal they are ready to end the shutdown after Tuesday’s off-year elections, including closely watched governor races in New Jersey and Virginia.

Democrats say it isn’t the elections that are influencing their thinking but rather the pain that has been inflicted on Americans, including expected delays in federal food aid this month.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told reporters Monday he also sensed senators are getting closer to an exit strategy but said he wasn’t yet sure what that would be. Democrats have demanded negotiations on health care and so far have rejected the offer of a vote absent a bipartisan deal.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Monday there’s not enough support among Republican senators to eliminate the filibuster as President Donald Trump ramps up pressure to change the chamber’s rules to allow the simple-majority passage of legislation.

“The votes aren’t there,” Thune told reporters.

Thune said he had spoken to Trump about the issue — he didn’t specify when — and questioned whether his campaign against the filibuster should come as a surprise.

Trump, during his first term as president, repeatedly pushed for Republicans to nix the 60-vote threshold for most legislation. But he renewed his call late last week as the government shutdown entered its fifth week, with Senate Democrats still opposed to a House-passed stopgap spending bill.

GOP senators and senior Republican aides quickly batted down Trump’s demand. But the president continued pushing over the weekend on social media and an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes.”

“TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER, NOT JUST FOR THE SHUTDOWN, BUT FOR EVERYTHING ELSE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Sen. James Lankford is warning that the prolonged shutdown could soon threaten the health care coverage of federal employees.

In a letter sent Oct. 30 to Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor, the Oklahoma Republican expressed concern that agencies are no longer contributing to trust funds that are managed by OPM and used to pay for government workers’ health insurance.

“Despite many efforts to reopen the government and pay federal workers, vital agencies remain closed, employees’ paychecks continue to be withheld and now access to healthcare for every federal employee and their families could be threatened,” Lankford wrote in the letter, first obtained by POLITICO. “The men and women who serve our nation should not face uncertainty about their paychecks or their health coverage because of political obstruction in the Senate.”

It’s unclear how soon the lapse in agency contributions towards the fund could impair OPM’s ability to pay for federal workers’ health insurance. As part of the largest employer-sponsored health insurance program in the world — the Federal Employee Health Benefits program, or FEHB — OPM is statutorily authorized to contract with private insurers and pay premiums on behalf of the federal workers, with the government generally funding around 75 percent of those premiums.

Within the FEHB, OPM tracks the finances for each health insurance plan separately and maintains contingency reserves for each plan, which are used to offset unexpected premium increases.

But as the Senate heads into the sixth week of a government shutdown, Lankford says these reserves and their potential depletion could become a more significant issue. A spokesperson for OPM did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

One Senate Republican aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Republicans could use this dynamic as a point of leverage against Democrats, who have been insisting on an extension on expiring Obamacare subsidies as they hold out support for ending the shutdown.

“While Democrats claim they are protecting health care, their decision to keep the government closed is threatening the very benefits they say they want to preserve,” said the aide. “The Senator is sending a letter to OPM to better understand how maintaining coverage during a funding lapse would work, and to offer support where it’s needed.”

According to OPM, the combined balance of the FEHB and a similar program for certain retirees was around $25.4 billion at the end of fiscal year 2024. In his letter to Kupor, Lankford asked when the funds financing each respective insurance plan would hit zero and when insurers would be notified of the lapse in funds.

Lankford also inquired if OPM knows of any legal options to continue paying employer-provided contributions for health care in the event the trust fund is emptied.

The head of the largest federal employees’ union talked with top Democratic congressional leaders about his organization’s calls for Democrats to shore up the votes to end the government shutdown.

“I won’t get into individual conversations, but they’re very well aware of why I’ve taken the stance that I’ve taken,” AFGE president Everett Kelley said in an interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns.

He was responding to the question of whether he had spoken to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer or senior Hill Democrats about AFGE’s statement last week asking Democrats to pass the GOP-led government funding patch. The statement from the organization, which represents over 800,000 federal workers, made waves, and sparked speculation about whether Democrats were nearing a point where they would have to cave under the weight of mounting political pressure.

Rank-and-file senators are engaged in bipartisan talksin an effort to break the logjam but they won’t be able to come to any agreement before Congress breaks the record Tuesday evening for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Senate Democrats are still seeking a deal on health care as a condition of lending their votes to reopen the government.

Schumer told reporters last week he’d told Kelley “we can do both,” referring to both the fight for health care and for federal workers.

Kelley demurred about whether his relationship with Schumer, Jeffries and others could be harmed by his union’s position.

“Hopefully we are still friends and we’re still allies,” he said.