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John Cornyn is not going down without a fight.

After months of polls showing the four-term Texas senator trailing in the Republican primary, a pro-Cornyn super PAC raised almost $11 million in the most recent fundraising period.

Texans for a Conservative Majority, the outside group supporting Cornyn in his primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, will have over $12 million cash on hand after the current fundraising quarter. The group has raised over $10.9 million in the quarter after Paxton announced his primary challenge against Cornyn.

Cornyn has been consistently trailing polls in the Senate primary against Paxton, whose indictment and impeachment over corruption and bribery charges left him well regarded by conservative grassroots activists loyal to Donald Trump but viewed skeptically by Republican operatives worried about his reception among swing voters in a midterm election.

“This first report shows what the armchair pundits fail to realize — this race is only beginning in earnest,” Aaron Whitehead, the executive director of the outside pro-Cornyn group, told POLITICO. “With eight months to go before the March primary, Texans for a Conservative Majority is well positioned to take the fight to Ken Paxton and independently support Senator John Cornyn’s re-election.”

Texas’ primary will be held on March 3, 2026.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s ability to pass the “big, beautiful bill” is hinging on Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

The Alaska senator has been the subject of an intense whip effort by GOP leaders over the past couple of hours as they try to offer her reassurances on Medicaid and food assistance. Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso talked to Murkowski on the floor for roughly an hour overnight. Thune and Murkowski huddled briefly in his office, and they were mum on details when they emerged shortly before 4 a.m.

Just moments ago, the Senate parliamentarian ruled that proposed SNAP carve-outs for an expanded list of states including Alaska are compliant with the Byrd rule. But the parliamentarian ruled a provision that would have boosted federal payments for Medicaid in Alaska and four other states is noncompliant, according to a person granted anonymity to share the decision.

Murkowski is also among the Republicans who have been pushing an amendment to undo the rollback of clean-energy credits under the Biden-era climate law.

Thune insisted to reporters moments ago that senators were closing in on the end of their vote-a-rama.

“We’re close,” he said, adding that they have a few more amendments from senators and a final so-called wraparound amendment to come.

In a potential sign of just how dire Thune’s whip count was looking in the wee hours, the majority leader huddled in his office with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who’s long said he would be a “no” on the bill over its debt-ceiling hike.

Another big unknown right now is where Sen. Susan Collins will fall. The Maine senator reminded us less than two hours ago that she’s “said all along that I have concerns with the bill” and also reiterated, when prompted by reporters, that she would have preferred breaking out the tax portion of the policy package on a separate track. Certainly not helping win Collins over: Her bid to boost money for rural hospitals went up in flames.

And major policy fights remain unresolved, including Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) divisive amendment to scale back federal payments under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion. Scott has leadership’s support on this one and said he expects it to pass. But several GOP senators have openly raised concerns with it.

What else we’re watching:

— Megabill goes to House Rules: Assuming the Senate passes the bill, the House is expected to bring the bill to the Rules Committee at noon on Tuesday, though two people with direct knowledge of the plans say it could get pushed amid delays with the Senate vote-a-rama.

— The next funding battle begins: Senate appropriators plan to move forward with marking up fiscal 2026 government funding bills starting next week. House Appropriations is scheduled to vote July 10 on the Commerce, Justice, Science bill and the Energy and Water Development bill. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) wants to finish marking up all 12 funding bills by the end of July.

President Donald Trump and his top deputies have started their final public push to get the “big, beautiful bill” over the finish line as the Senate struggles to finish up the legislation.

Stephen Miller, Trump’s top policy aide, appeared on Fox News Channel’s “Hannity” Monday night, about 12 hours into the Senate “vote-a-rama,” to angrily rebut criticisms of the bill and fiercely defend its contents.

“I am sick and tired of the lies about this bill that have been perpetrated by the opportunists who are trying to make a name for themselves,” he said. “This is the most conservative bill of my lifetime.”

Around that time, White House budget director Russ Vought took apparent aim at deficit hawks concerned about the expanding costs of the Senate version of the megabill in an X post. He embraced the Senate’s “current policy baseline” accounting, zeroing out the cost of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts.

“Remember, those saying that the Senate bill increases deficits are comparing it to a projection where spending is eternal, and tax relief sunsets,” he said. “That is a Leftist presupposition, and thankfully the Senate refused to let the bill be scored that way.”

Shortly before midnight, Vice President JD Vance also weighed in on X, arguing that the megabill’s border security and immigration provisions alone made it worthwhile.

“Everything else — the CBO score, the proper baseline, the minutiae of the Medicaid policy — is immaterial compared to the ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions,” he wrote.

Then, at 12:01 a.m., Trump himself posted to Truth Social: “Republicans, the One Big Beautiful Bill, perhaps the greatest and most important of its kind in history, gives the largest Tax Cuts and Border Security ever, Jobs by the Millions, Military/Vets increases, and so much more. The failure to pass means a whopping 68% Tax increase, the largest in history!!!”

Meanwhile, the Senate kept voting, with no final deal yet in sight.

The Senate rejected a bid by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) to raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy and boost money for rural medical providers in the GOP’s megabill.

The chamber voted 78-22 against a procedural motion related to her amendment, which would have increased a rural hospital fund from $25 billion over five years to $50 billion and allowed a wider range of health providers to tap it. The amendment also would have raised the top tax rates for individuals who earn more than $25 million a year and couples earning more than $50 million starting next year.

It remains unclear whether the failure of the amendment could cost GOP leaders Collins’ vote. She had been concerned about the impact on rural hospitals from the bill, and even questioned if any amount in a rural hospital fund would help offset the losses.

“Rural providers, especially our rural hospitals and nursing homes, are under great financial strain right now, with many having recently closed and others being at risk of closing,” Collins said before the vote. “This amendment would help keep them open and caring for those who live in rural communities.”

Most Democrats joined the majority of Republicans in opposing consideration of the amendment. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) called it a “Band-Aid on an amputation” that would barely offset the other health care cuts in the bill: “It would be much more logical to simply not cut $1 trillion from Medicaid in the first place,” he said. Georgia Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner were the only Democrats to vote with Collins, along with independent Sen. Angus King of Maine.

Collins criticized Democrats after the vote for opposing her. “They’ve complained repeatedly about the distribution in this bill, of Medicaid cuts hurting individuals, rural hospitals, and tax cuts being extended for people who are wealthy, and yet when I tried to fix both those problems, they took a very hypocritical approach.”

She said she remained undecided on the overall bill and that the snub would not affect her decision.

Several GOP senators have aired concerns that the bill’s cuts to Medicaid in the bill would force rural hospitals to close. The bill lowers the amount a state can tax a hospital and then use the funding to qualify for more federal Medicaid dollars without having to dip into their own general funds. Hospitals don’t mind the tax because they can get higher payments from their state.

Conservatives have claimed these provider taxes amount to a “money laundering” scheme that enables states to use the extra federal dollars for other things. But the hospital industry has fought this claim, arguing that the provider taxes are needed to help rural hospitals that operate on thin margins.

House fiscal hawks are looking at the math underlying Senate Republicans’ sprawling domestic policy legislation, and they don’t like what they see.

As Senate Republicans try to muscle President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” for final passage, they’re on track to violate a budget framework brokered between House fiscal hawks and Speaker Mike Johnson. Under that framework, if the GOP piles on tax cuts over $4 trillion, they’d need to match them dollar-for-dollar with additional spending cuts beyond the $1.5 trillion in the House-passed bill.

“The Senate version adds $651 billion to the deficit — and that’s before interest costs, which nearly double the total,” said the House Freedom Caucus in a Monday afternoon post on X. “The Senate must make major changes and should at least be in the ballpark of compliance with the agreed upon House budget framework.”

It’s a wonky hill to die on, but dozens of House conservatives insisted on the deal before smoothing the megabill’s path through their chamber. Johnson at one point told the conservatives they could go after his gavel if he didn’t hold up the deal — what some of the holdouts considered a “blood oath.”

If the House hawks stand by the deal and the Senate bill doesn’t change appreciably during the final amendment vote marathon that got underway Monday, it could force GOP leaders to “conference” the legislation between the two chambers — likely delaying the bill’s passage beyond Trump’s deadline of July 4.

Now compounding concerns for House GOP leaders, who have ordered members back to Washington to start voting on the bill Wednesday morning, billionaire Elon Musk sent new volleys of criticism at Trump’s marquee legislation Monday over the bill’s deficit impact.

“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” said Musk on X on Monday. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

The House fiscal hawks have been crystal-clear about their fiscal red lines, though many now privately worry that they could end up getting jammed by Senate Republicans — and by Trump — with a far spendier bill. Johnson on Monday would not address whether the pending Senate bill could pass the House but told reporters he’s long advised Senate GOP leaders to hew as close to the House version as possible.

There’s “a lot of game left to play,” he added.

Notably, a group of 38 House Republicans led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) wrote Senate Majority Leader John Thune in early June warning that any changes to the GOP megabill needed to adhere to the fiscal framework laid out by the House. Under that plan, if the GOP includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in their bill, then they would need to scrounge up at least $2 trillion in spending cuts.

It’s already looking to be a far cry from what Senate Republicans hope to pass in the coming hours.

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the Senate’s plan includes around $4.45 trillion of tax cuts versus the $3.8 trillion in tax cuts passed by the House. But the spending cuts contemplated by the Senate GOP wouldn’t come close to making up the difference, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the other official budget scorer on Capitol Hill.

CBO estimates the Senate plan includes around $1.5 trillion in mandatory spending cuts, but that amount is reduced by around $300 billion in one-time investments in border funding and national security policy.

“The Senate bill is currently out of compliance with the budget framework by $651 billion, which is adjusted for dynamic revenue from higher economic growth,” said Paul Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center and a top economic official during Trump’s first administration, in a text. “I think it will be very important to get that number closer to $0 to avoid conference.”

Senate Republicans in many ways made steeper cuts to Medicaid than the House, which would have otherwise helped rectify the difference.

But between $200 and $300 billion in spending cuts included in the House-passed bill were knocked out because they didn’t comply with Senate budget rules. The chamber’s parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has been in constant talks with Senate Republican and Democratic staff about whether provisions in the legislation are fit for the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process.

“What we’ve been told is somewhere around $250 billion, because I’ve heard $300 and I’ve heard [$200], so I’m gonna split the difference,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) of the sidelined spending cuts.

Mullin added that House Republicans should look at the score of tax cuts under the so-called current policy baseline, which assumes that trillions of dollars of expiring tax cuts would be extended.

“I think it’s up to the House how they want to look at this, because they can go in two different directions,” said Mullin. “If you go underneath current law, then you have a deficit. If you go into current policy, you actually have a surplus of $507 billion.”

Still, prominent Republicans such as Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and conservative firebrand Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) have argued that Senate Republicans still need to do the math as laid out in the House budget, regardless of which baseline they use.

Rep. Keith Self, another Texas Republican, wrote Monday on X that senators are “completely ignoring” the House budget framework. “This isn’t just reckless,” he wrote, “it’s fiscally criminal.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

Elon Musk said Monday he would follow through on threats to establish a third party if President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is enacted by Congress.

Musk said on X his “America Party will be formed the next day” after its passage. He posted as the Senate moved closer to a final vote on what he called an “insane” domestic policy bill.

“Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a VOICE,” he continued.

The world’s richest man, who until recently played an active role in the Trump administration, renewed his attacks the GOP’s cornerstone legislation over the weekend. then on Monday, he threatened to wield his financial resources against Republicans who support it.

“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” Musk wrote on X. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

Musk’s opposition to the megabill, which could cripple the renewable energy industry while adding trillions to the national debt, led to a public break with the president shortly after his time as a federal government employee came to an end in late May.

The two appeared to patch things up several days later.

But Musk is again on the offensive. He tagged two House Freedom Caucus members, Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Andy Harris of Maryland, in another post assailing the megabill.

“How can you call yourself the Freedom Caucus if you vote for a DEBT SLAVERY bill with the biggest debt ceiling increase in history?” Musk wrote.

Republicans are on the cusp of a breakthrough in their long effort to strip federal funding from Planned Parenthood after a Senate ruling Monday.

Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough advised lawmakers that a provision that would cut off Medicaid funding for one year to the women’s health organization and abortion provider can remain in the GOP’s domestic policy megabill without threatening its ability to be passed along party lines, according to Senate Democrats.

The megabill is expected to clear the Senate Monday or Tuesday using a budgetary tool to bypass a 60-vote filibuster. Bills advanced with that tool must adhere to strict budget rules, and the parliamentarian is the de facto arbiter of those rules. Senate Democrats had challenged whether the provision was allowed.

“Republicans will stop at nothing in their crusade to take control of women’s bodies,” said Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley of Oregon in a statement.

Conservative lawmakers have sought to strip Planned Parenthood’s eligibility for federal funds for decades. It has long been subject to the Hyde amendment, which bans federal funding directly on abortions, but the organization bills Medicaid for nonabortion services and receives other federal funding through other programs and grants.

Republicans sought to target the group in their party-line 2017 push to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but the overall effort collapsed.

Planned Parenthood’s U.S. division received $792 million in funding from government reimbursements and grants, which includes Medicaid, as of June 2023, according to the group’s 2023 and 2024 annual report. A Congressional Budget Office score of the provision targeting Planned Parenthood included in the House-passed version of the megabill estimated it would cost taxpayers an additional $52 million over 10 years.

While most Senate Democrats are looking for pieces to chip away from the GOP megabill in the ongoing vote-a-rama, Sen. John Fetterman just wants the process over with already.

“Oh my God, I just want to go home,” the Pennsylvania Democrat told reporters on Monday. “I’ve already missed our entire trip to the beach… I’m going to vote no. There’s no drama.”

GOP leaders expect rapid-fire amendments to roll in until at least late Monday evening. With a swath of unresolved issues — from potential cuts to the Medicaid provider tax to the phasing out of clean-energy credits — the process could easily extend into the night.

But Fetterman doesn’t think there will be surprises out of tonight’s votes.

“The only interesting votes are going to be on the margin, whether that’s [Susan] Collins or [Ron] Johnson and those,” he said. “All the Democrats, we all know how that’s going to go. I don’t think it’s really helpful to put people here till some ungodly hour.”

Fetterman later posted on X that he’s “here to vote on these amendments and keep the ball rolling” and reiterated his stance against cutting Medicaid and SNAP.

Fetterman has increasingly been a thorn in Democrats’ side as they ramp up opposition to the Trump administration and its policies. Fetterman has been adamant, for example, about not supporting a war powers resolution introduced by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) that would limit the president’s ability to take military action on Iran without congressional approval. Trump on Friday called Fetterman “the most sensible” Democratic senator and suggested he should support the megabill.

Fetterman’s impatience with the vote-a-rama is just his latest break with his own party.

“This bill is the biggest transfer of wealth from the working class to the 1% and Fetterman’s message to voters is that he just wants to go home,” Joe Calvello, Fetterman’s former communications director postedon X.

Dozens of House Republicans are scrambling behind the scenes to head off the deep Medicaid cuts in the Senate version of the party-line megabill that could pass as soon as tonight.

Group texts are blowing up and frantic phone calls are being exchanged among GOP lawmakers alarmed about the Senate Medicaid provisions, according to six House Republicans granted anonymity to describe the conversations. Even some conservatives in states that will be hit hard by the Senate’s crackdown on state-directed payments and medical provider taxes don’t want to vote on the Senate’s Medicaid text.

That’s to say nothing of an effort pushed by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to scale back federal payments under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion — a well-established red line for many House members.

Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to hold a call with House Republicans Monday afternoon, according to two other people granted anonymity to discuss yet-to-be-announced plans. Senate and House leadership staffers huddled Monday to discuss the outstanding concerns.

Senior House Republicans are warning they still might need to hammer out differences between the two chambers if the Senate doesn’t strike a final compromise on the language and add it in a final amendment before sending the bill to the House. That would mean missing President Donald Trump’s arbitrary July 4 deadline for signing the megabill.

It’s still unclear whether the Senate will relent and allow a compromise on Medicaid or other policy issues in a final amendment. That chamber is dealing with its own politics, including the determination of many GOP senators to swell the size of the tax-cut package, prompting the need for sharper Medicaid cuts.

Thune has been noncommittal in closed-door meetings with GOP senators about whether there will be a final “wraparound” that would incorporate House Republicans’ concerns. Senate leaders are betting the House will accept whatever the Senate sends them.

“Right now, there isn’t a need for it,” said one GOP senator granted anonymity to discuss the situation.

South Dakota GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson on Monday officially launched his campaign for governor.

Johnson, the chair of the House GOP’s Main Street Caucus, who has served in Congress since 2019, touted Republican wins in Washington since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in his announcement.

“We rolled up our sleeves and got things moving in the right direction, cutting trillions in wasteful spending, standing with President Trump to secure our border and finally getting tough on China,” he said in a video announcement Monday.

POLITICO reported on Johnson’s plans to enter the race last week. Johnson won his most recent statewide race against Democrat Sheryl Johnson with 72 percent of the vote.

“It’s gonna take hard work,” he said. “A real plan, South Dakota common sense and solid conservative leadership.”

Kristi Noem, who served as South Dakota governor for nearly two terms after her election in 2018, left the state when Trump tapped her to serve as Director of Homeland Security after his reelection. Larry Rhoden, who ascended to the post following her resignation in January, hasn’t yet committed to running for reelection.