There’s no doubt Speaker Mike Johnson has a rough road ahead in 2024. He’s got two shutdown deadlines, fraught border negotiations and building pressure to impeach President Joe Biden.

In the midst of all that, he’s got an incredibly thin majority and he has to keep his right flank happy — never an easy task in split government. He’s been speaker for about two and a half months, and in that time we’ve learned a few things about him that will affect the legislative pileup:

1. He doesn’t have a McCarthy-style inner circle.

Unlike his predecessor, Johnson isn’t surrounded by his closest friends acting as informal advisers. That has pros and cons: Those members helped Kevin McCarthy navigate the historically thin majority, but it further fueled distrust within GOP leadership.

Johnson leans on members of House leadership far more, a welcome change for some Republicans who appreciate the top-down communication style. He does have some allies and mentors that he trusts for advice at various times, including Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), and Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) as well as Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), according to a Republican close to Johnson.

At this point, Johnson doesn’t appear to have the deep support McCarthy had that allowed him to persevere through 15 ballots. While McCarthy’s strategy obviously had its problems, Johnson will need some sort of loyal backing if he wants to successfully navigate tricky political terrain.

His press strategy critically differs from McCarthy, too. As a rank-and-file member, Johnson was extremely accessible to reporters. As speaker, he’s been far more reserved — avoiding hallway questions and finding roundabout ways to get onto the House floor to avoid reporters. It’s fueled a perception that Johnson is weary of answering questions, whereas McCarthy often dealt with journalists head on. However, Johnson has rejoined the weekly leadership pressers that McCarthy opted to skip.

2. He can’t keep punting.

Some Republicans have criticized Johnson over his willingness to punt on polarizing issues rather than call a tough play. And they don’t have a lot of patience left.

That approach was most on display during the spy powers fight last month, when Johnson tried to have members duke it out on the floor to decide which FISA bill would move forward rather than make the decision himself. That backfired: He was forced to withdraw the legislation and both conservatives and centrists complained that it was his job to pick which bill was better.

But conservatives weren’t happy with the results of Johnson wading into the toplines spending deal either. Congressional leaders announced Sunday they had an agreement on overall funding levels — which are effectively the same numbers included in the debt ceiling deal former Speaker Kevin McCarthy had negotiated — prompting swift backlash from the right flank.

That highlights another problem conservatives have with Johnson (and most speakers, at one point or another): They feel he’s too willing to make deals with Democrats. It didn’t help Johnson that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was doing a victory lap earlier today, bragging that not a “nickel” was cut.

All that means Johnson is a little boxed in. Conservatives will criticize any deal he reaches with Democrats, something he has to do in split government. But his conference broadly argues he can no longer try to lead from behind. Republicans want him to demonstrate — through spending, the border and impeachment — that he can pick a side when he has to, and stick to it.

3.  He’s approaching politically volatile issues, like the border, very carefully.

While Johnson has repeatedly demanded more border security and made it a central issue for the party for the November election, he’s shown that he won’t stick his neck out on it as far as some lawmakers want — at least not yet.

He’ll call for conservative border priorities, but he’s purposely stopped short of threatening a shutdown over it, the type of hardball tactics that some conservatives are demanding. At the same time, Johnson hasn’t taken part in the bipartisan Senate negotiations, despite explicit calls from the Biden administration for him to do so. So far, it seems like he’s waiting to weigh in further until those negotiators announce a deal.

That’s far from certain, which may be a part of Johnson’s calculus. But if they do, the speaker may face pointed questions from his conference if he doesn’t push hard enough for their conservative H.R. 2 bill, which is considered a non-starter in the Senate.

Congressional appropriators are sprinting to turn two big funding totals into 12, after party leaders secured a deal on a government funding framework over the weekend.

For weeks, Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s staff have haggled over budget totals for the military and domestic programs — only to wind up with the same funding limits set by last summer’s bipartisan debt agreement.

Now leading appropriators, largely sidelined in past weeks, are back in the mix. Their task is negotiating how to split up those overall budget totals across a dozen spending bills for the fiscal year that’s already in full swing. Lawmakers are exceedingly low on time to figure out those numbers and resolve their vast policy differences across the slate of fiscal 2024 spending measures before part of the government runs out of cash on Jan. 19.

At the same time, Senate negotiators are racing to finalize a border security deal that would also deliver emergency aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, further complicating the timeline.

As a result, there’s a growing sense inside the Capitol that another funding patch will be needed to buy more time for a broader government funding bargain — even though Johnson has vowed no more short-term funding extensions.

“I hate to start talking short-term this early in the process,” Senate Majority Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said of another extension. “We know from history, it’s possible.”

Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) agreed that a spending patch is a possibility, “between the House and the Senate and how much time we have to work with and few other things we have to get done along the way.”

Federal funding for the departments of Agriculture, Transportation, Energy, Veterans Affairs and more expires on Jan. 19. Funding for the rest of the government, including the biggest domestic programs and the Pentagon, runs out on Feb. 2.

On the floor earlier Monday afternoon, Schumer said the deal clinched over the weekend on a funding framework is “a huge step toward avoiding a government shutdown,” but he warned that “producing 12 appropriations bills will not be easy.”

Such a feat will require agreement from the top four appropriators in Congress and “a lot more compromise between the parties,” he said. Schumer vowed Democrats will not agree to any controversial GOP policy add-ons.

To meet the first government shutdown deadline on Jan. 19, it’s likely the first tranche of four bills needs to be negotiated and written by the end of this week. That’s because it typically takes Congress’ nonpartisan budget scorekeeper four to five days to analyze the text. And unless leaders buck the rules, lawmakers are supposed to get 72 hours to peruse the bill text before voting.

Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano contributed to this report.

Senate negotiations on a border and immigration deal are getting bogged down over details, making it highly unlikely there’s an agreement this week.

Despite optimistic statements in recent days from all three Senate negotiators, a finalized agreement is bedeviling Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). Though none of them will talk policy specifics, GOP senators say efforts to restrict the president’s parole authority are at an impasse, as Democrats push back on the issue.

“There’s too many unanswered issues that are still there. There’s too many unresolved parts. But I would say as recently as yesterday, I was thinking I think we’re close. But in all of our meetings last night and today, we’re not,” Lankford told reporters after briefing GOP leaders. “I’m doubtful about later on this week … I think it’s more likely the next.”

Murphy said senators and the Biden administration are “trying to get it as soon as possible but there frustratingly remain some open issues.” And as Republicans condition their votes for more Ukraine aid on new border and immigration restrictions, the rest of the supplemental spending bill may have to wait too.

The three senators have spent months urgently trying to finalize a bipartisan agreement that would unlock that money and make new border and immigration restrictions to deal with a surge of migrants into the United States. But Congress has a history of failures on addressing immigration, and those challenges are now falling to three senators under a compressed timeline with huge stakes for U.S. foreign policy.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is close to the negotiators, said that parole authority is the biggest unresolved issue in the talks. Lankford said that “every administration needs the ability to have humanitarian parole, that’s why that’s why it exists. But you have to be able to stop the abuse.”

Asked about why parole is such a challenging issue, Murphy bluntly said that “many of us warned that it’s not a good idea to condition the salvation of Ukraine and Europe on our ability to craft a comprehensive immigration reform. Period.”

Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) both said they have reservations about restricting presidential parole, though they are open to the discussion. Schatz quipped that if the “bill is done right, everyone is going to hate it.”

Progressives and conservatives alike are expected to oppose any agreement on immigration and border security, with the left arguing it goes too far and the right arguing it doesn’t go far enough.

Negotiators and Senate leaders touted progress over the holiday break. It’s unclear, however, when a bill would move through the Senate even if there is a deal — and still more questions remain about whether the House GOP majority would even take it up.

The laborious negotiations could soon find themselves overrun by the imperative to stop a government shutdown, with a Jan. 19 date bearing down on Capitol Hill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer met with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell about the issues confronting Congress on Monday afternoon.

Still, there’s a flurry of activity around the unresolved discussions this week. Democrats are hoping to get a briefing from Murphy on Tuesday, while Senate Republicans are set for a GOP conference meeting about the border and immigration on Wednesday.

A number of senators say they’re still largely in the dark about what exactly has been negotiated. Durbin said Monday he hadn’t gotten any substantive updates recently, noting that he spoke to Schumer about it a few days ago but that the majority leader “didn’t have much to tell me.” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) said while there haven’t been many incremental updates, there’s an “appreciation for the fact that you can’t start having piecemeal discussions about this, because it is so delicate.”

Senate Republican leadership is bracing for a slog, too. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters that negotiators are getting talks “reduced to text,” but that “getting something ready for action on the floor is going to take a while.”

Rep. Larry Bucshon does not plan to seek reelection this year.

The Indiana Republican — who sits on the House Energy and Commerce Committee — is the latest in a steady stream of lawmakers to announce his plans to retire from Congress. His chief of staff announced Buchson’s intentions in an email shortly before he made a public announcement, according to an email obtained by POLITICO.

“Scripture teaches us, ‘For everything there is a season,’ and it became clear to me over the Christmas holiday with much discernment and prayer that the time has come to bring my season in public service to a conclusion,” Bucshon said in a press release.

He was first elected to the House in 2010, and took office in 2011.

Kari Lake raised $2.1 million during her first quarter as an Arizona Senate candidate, according to her campaign.

The former TV news anchor-turned-politician launched her long-anticipated campaign on Oct. 10 and quickly began racking up establishment support. Her fundraising total includes the period from mid-October to Dec. 31. Her cash-on-hand amount was not immediately available.

Arizona’s Senate race could be a historic three-way contest. Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party to become an independent and has not announced whether she will run again. Rep. Ruben Gallego is the top Democratic contender.

“Kari Lake is outworking everyone, posting a very strong fundraising haul for her first quarter in the race. Arizona is the best pick up opportunity for Senate Republicans,” Garrett Ventry, a Lake senior adviser, said in a statement.

Lake has nabbed endorsements from former President Donald Trump, and Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). She is trying to strike a different tone this cycle than when she ran for governor in 2022 in a campaign that focused heavily on claims of election fraud and personal attacks on her rivals.

Lake attempted to pivot in 2023, currying favor with GOP leaders and attempting a détente with allies of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) whom she antagonized.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has not yet endorsed in the primary but is working closely with Lake’s team. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the Senate campaign chief, texts frequently with Lake about the race, according to a person familiar with their interactions.

“Kari Lake has strong grassroots support that is clearly translating to fundraising success,” Daines said in a statement.

Neither of Lake’s likely rivals have announced their fourth-quarter fundraising. But Gallego has raised more than $3 million for the past three quarters. Sinema’s fundraising has dried up somewhat since her party switch, but she had more than $10 million in the bank after the third quarter.

Two other Senate GOP candidates have also announced their totals from the last three months of 2023. Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania raised $5.4 million and gave himself another $1 million contribution. Sam Brown in Nevada raised $1.85 million.

Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into two must-win Senate races in Montana and Ohio, aiming to build party infrastructure that can help counteract the two states’ GOP leanings.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is set to invest seven figures in building out a ground game this fall to aid the reelection bids of Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), according to information shared first with POLITICO.

Tester and Brown are running in deep-red states where Republicans are heavily favored in this year’s presidential race. Since President Joe Biden is unlikely to focus on Montana or Ohio, where Tester and Brown are the last statewide Democrats standing, that makes it vital for Democrats to invest there early.

DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said in a statement that the campaign arm’s “investments in sustained, effective grassroots organizing will lay the groundwork for our campaigns to win tough races.” The new investments will pay for staffers to focus on field training, volunteer recruitment and organizing, as well as analytics, data, voter access and voter outreach.

Though the DSCC did not provide a precise figure for its spending, ultimately the Senate Democratic campaign arm plans to spend tens of millions of dollars on its field programs, according to an aide. The party is expected to announce more states and funding later this year. During the successful 2022 midterm cycle, Democrats spent more on field organizing than TV ads.

The battle for the Senate majority this fall is likely to center around Ohio and Montana. With Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) retiring, Tester and Brown now face the toughest races — and their reelections represent their party’s easiest path to keeping the majority. With that in mind, Republicans are homing in on the duo, hoping to nominate candidates best equipped to beat the two battle-hardened incumbents.

If Democrats win the presidential race this fall, they can maintain a 50-seat majority, provided all their incumbents are reelected. The DSCC has also announced funding for staff in several other battleground states — including Texas and Florida, which are the party’s best opportunities to knock off GOP incumbents in Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively.

As the Senate’s bipartisan border negotiators sound an optimistic note about presenting a potential agreement to their colleagues next week, one of them — Arizona Independent Kyrsten Sinema — separately revealed that she spoke with Speaker Mike Johnson on Friday.

“We’ve been talking about briefing the two [Senate] conferences next week,” Sinema told reporters. “I think we are on track to do that.” She declined to offer any details about her separate conversation with Johnson.

Senators will return to Washington on Monday and will hold full party meetings on Tuesday. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), his party’s leading negotiator, echoed Sinema’s hopes of securing at least the outlines of a deal by early next week, though he was skeptical and made clear there is no agreement yet.

“We’ve already blown through the deadlines we had established for ourselves in 2023 … I don’t know that we’ll get there,” Murphy said. “We still have a couple outstanding issues that we’re working hard at.”

Clinching even a partial agreement on stricter border policy by early next week would be the most notable sign of progress in two months of negotiations among Murphy, Sinema, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and the Biden administration. If it happens, it couldn’t come at a more high-stakes time: The first batch of government funding runs out on Jan. 19, and House conservatives are already beginning to signal interest in trying to force a shutdown if a border deal isn’t reached that’s to their liking.

Johnson’s involvement also signals that talks are progressing to the point of briefing the House, where many lawmakers worry that Republicans could quickly reject any Senate deal. Conservatives are already pushing more border restrictions than Democrats can stomach, and if Johnson embraces a Senate proposal that’s unpopular with the right, he could face a problematic rebellion with a reed-thin majority.

A Johnson spokesperson did not immediately return a request for comment about his conversation with Sinema.

Senate negotiators spent the past few weeks facing questions on whether to welcome the speaker’s engagement in their work, or whether the lack of it showed they were pursuing a flawed strategy.

“You’ve got to get a bill through both chambers to get it signed by the president,” Sinema said. “So we’re working very hard to ensure that this is a bill that can pass both the Senate, the House and get signed by the president.”

Both Sinema and Murphy declined to offer specifics on whether they’re hoping to present their colleagues a framework, a bill text, or just a broad update on where negotiations stand. Their efforts are designed to create a border package that can help shake loose President Joe Biden’s $100 billion-plus emergency national security spending request — not to have any role in the domestic funding that’s set to expire soon.

“Normally how these big bipartisan deals work out is that you have a top line compromise first, and then you work to finalize the text. I don’t yet know how, if we reach an agreement, how we present that to our colleagues,” Murphy said.

Negotiators are expected to make some changes to U.S. asylum law, including raising the credible fear standard and an expulsion authority similar to the Trump-era Title 42 policy, according to three people familiar with the talks who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Department of Homeland Security officials are drafting text for these policies, according to one of the people, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss private conversations with Hill aides and administration officials.

The people further cautioned that the impact of the policies depends on how the text is written — a level of detail that hasn’t emerged from the tight-lidded talks. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas did not attend Friday’s meeting but is a regular presence in the talks; several White House officials were in attendance on Friday.

Negotiators are still working through complicated details of other potential policy changes, such as an expansion of expedited removal of migrants. The biggest sticking point remains striking a compromise over changes to the president’s parole authority, which has so far been a red line for the White House.

Sinema would not address what’s still holding up a final accord, but she told reporters that negotiators will continue to meet remotely this weekend before session resumes on Monday.

“It’s going to be very busy,” she said of the upcoming weekend.

There’s good news about House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s treatments for blood cancer: He has responded well to chemotherapy and is undergoing a stem cell transplantation process, according to his office.

That ongoing course of treatment means the Louisiana Republican will work remotely this month before returning to Washington in February, according to his office.

“He is currently undergoing the transplant process, marking a significant milestone in his battle against cancer,” the office said in an unattributed statement. “Once the procedure is completed, he will be recovering under the supervision of his medical team and will work remotely until returning to Washington next month.”

Scalise revealed his diagnosis of multiple myeloma, a type of blood cancer, back in August. His ongoing treatment became an issue in his unsuccessful bid to replace former Rep. Kevin McCarthy as speaker back in the fall.