Speaker Mike Johnson’s grip on his fractious conference slipped this week after he struck a government funding deal with Democrats — antagonizing the same Republicans who led the ouster of Kevin McCarthy.

Now, not even three months in the job, Johnson is facing a decision that promises to shape his speakership going forward: whether to give in to yet another conservative rebellion and scrap the bipartisan deal, or to hold firm and further anger his right flank. After temporarily freezing up the House floor on Wednesday, hardliners came back Thursday and insisted that the Louisiana Republican ditch the agreement.

No Republicans are seriously considering a quick push to oust Johnson — but that could change at any moment.

And his choice on the spending deal, which is expected next week, will have serious consequences. If Johnson reneges on his accord with Senate Democrats, he would send Washington on a fast track to a partial shutdown that would kick in on Jan. 20. He’d also lose major face with the less vocal majority of House Republicans who can live with his agreement to fund the government largely under the terms that McCarthy agreed to last year.

“We understand we’re in divided government and handed Mike a bad hand when we asked him to become speaker after 10 weeks of whatever that was,” said Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), referring to this past fall’s lengthy House paralysis, including McCarthy’s removal from the speakership.

Armstrong, once a stalwart McCarthy ally, predicted that the topline deal will ultimately remain the same, and there will be “a tremendous amount of pushback from the rest of the conference” to Freedom Caucus members’ attempts to get Johnson to abandon it.

House Republicans’ predicament stems in part from the degree to which they’re still reliving the past — namely, McCarthy’s firing. Different corners of the conference offer wildly different views of the debt deal that McCarthy cut with President Joe Biden last year. While some prominent conservatives praised it at the time, most hardliners now insist that McCarthy’s failure to secure still more cuts ensured his ouster as speaker.

Other Republicans argue that McCarthy’s willingness to entertain lofty, ultimately unworkable conservative demands for steep spending cuts lost him the gavel, not the debt deal itself. At the same time, hardliners are feeling increasingly emboldened to play hardball and try to bend the rest of the House to their will, believing that their party has a political advantage if they go all-in on a shutdown fight over the border.

If Johnson tries the same path his predecessor took and gives oxygen to the right flank’s push for more cuts or stricter border policies, he’ll find himself in the same hopeless position that the now-retired ex-speaker did. Most of his members would prefer he stop trying to satisfy a small faction of the House GOP that typically doesn’t support spending bills, anyway.

“Renegotiating for the purposes of appeasing a group of people — 100 percent of whom you’re not going to have, in my opinion — could be a flawed strategy,” Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said.

Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), another appropriator, warned that “shutting down the country … never really gets any goals truly accomplished.”

Johnson and his team are offering private reassurances to rattled rank-and-file Republicans that he didn’t concede anything to conservatives, according to two GOP lawmakers who have spoken to leadership since conservatives crowed that they were pressuring him to back down. And he’s made clear to Republicans in several meetings this week that he doesn’t see how they gain more political leverage in a shutdown.

Meanwhile, allies are privately and publicly urging him to stand by the government funding deal, one of the year’s first tests of his ability to secure the sort of bipartisan pacts he’ll need to make throughout the year.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), in a brief interview, said he is privately urging leadership to “remain strong.”

“This is the best deal we’re going to get. They are dumb to think otherwise,” Bacon said of the hardliners. “They are impossible.”

And even some of the group that were part of Thursday’s meeting to try to negotiate an alternate deal, acknowledged that their effort will likely fall short.

“I expect that you’ll see more of the same here in Washington, D.C.,” said Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), predicting that it is “likely” Johnson will keep the bipartisan deal.

House Republican appropriators are among the most vocal advocates for Johnson to stick to the bipartisan spending deal, proving he can work in divided government at the start of a critical election year. Following through on the funding agreement is critical to demonstrating Johnson’s integrity, they argue.

“In life, you can’t break your word,” said Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.), a senior Republican appropriator. “Everything is dependent on your honor. You can’t break that. You just can’t break that. Because that would make you totally incapable of negotiating anything, ever.”

Even the conservatives leading the pushback openly doubt that Johnson will get quickly targeted with an ouster vote if he sticks to his agreement with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Given the GOP’s shaky majority and Democrats’ unified performance during the McCarthy eviction, it’s conceivable that an effort to remove Johnson could backfire and result in a Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), one of the conservatives pushing Johnson to revoke the spending deal, even praised Johnson’s overall performance and said a so-called motion to vacate, the process to remove a speaker, is “not going to happen.”

“We trust what he says, which is a different day from Kevin McCarthy,” Norman said.

If Johnson pushes ahead with the terms of the funding accord, he can count on some Democratic help getting a final funding package over the finish line. Should he side with conservatives, however, Johnson is almost certainly on his own. Jeffries has already warned the speaker that Democrats won’t support any alternative to the deal he already endorsed, according to Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.).

“Hakeem has basically laid down the gauntlet that ‘if you do anything other than what was negotiated, I will not help you,'” Hern said.

Across the Capitol, most Republican senators support the Schumer-Johnson deal, but even they praised Johnson’s handling of a difficult situation — saying that he’s trying to extract the most conservative victories possible amid divided government.

“Johnson is trying really hard,” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a senior appropriator. “He’s trying really hard to do exactly what their folks want, which is fund government, but at a lower level.”

Olivia Beavers and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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Schumer pushes stopgap bill to avert shutdown next week

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Most Senate GOP leaders are confronting a dilemma they hoped to avoid: With Donald Trump barreling toward victory in the Iowa caucus next week, do they endorse him or keep holding out?

There’s a striking split in the Capitol at the start of primary season, as House GOP leaders line up behind the party’s clear frontrunner while most of their Senate counterparts remain neutral in the presidential race. Senators could attract the prolonged wrath of the loyalty-obsessed former president if they delay an endorsement too long.

Trump’s allies warn that holdouts in Senate leadership may be taking a huge political gamble.

“The biggest risk is that voters see them as disloyal to the party’s core message going in 2024,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), a 2016 Trump skeptic who is now one of his biggest boosters. “That is a real risk. And that’s why I’ve encouraged a lot of folks to endorse the former president.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is taking perhaps the most obvious stance by avoiding Trump. The two have had no relationship since the Capitol riot of 2021. Trump rarely misses a chance to take personal potshots at the Kentuckian, while McConnell only occasionally even discusses anything about Trump at all.

So while it’s no surprise that McConnell is steering clear of a Trump endorsement, the former president could again try to force McConnell out of party leadership later this year, if he reclaims the White House. Vance warned that the former president may direct his wrath at senators who fail to get behind him, saying that it depends “how much Donald Trump wants to keep a grudge.”

The potential risks of holding out became clearer as more rank-and-file GOP senators got behind Trump in recent weeks. They crystallized on Tuesday night, after Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (Wyo.) — one of McConnell’s potential successors — endorsed Trump on Fox News. The move drew immediate praise from the ex-president.

The House GOP’s No. 2 and No. 3 GOP leaders, Steve Scalise (La.) and Tom Emmer (Minn.), endorsed Trump within the same 24-hour period last week. Some Republicans privately saw that as either a sign of the pressure mounting on their top brass to back Trump rather than face his wrath or a politically expedient move.

Now, the attention has moved to the Senate.

“You need to talk to them [about] what their problem is. I don’t always understand what the Senate’s logic is over there,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), who chairs the Republican Study Committee. “The Senate always surprises me.”

The most urgent decision belongs to Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, the No. 4 Senate Republican who could find herself at the top rungs of conference leadership in the coming years. Ernst is staying unaligned as the Iowa Caucuses approach, and she’s not sure what she will do next week if Trump translates his polling leads to a win in her state.

“We’ll see,” Ernst said in an interview. “I just have to remain neutral through the caucuses. And then we want to see who the nominee is actually going to be. But there’s a lot to be decided between now and then.”

Hailing from an early-voting state and known for an occasional tendency to diverge from her party’s pack (she removed herself from Trump’s vice presidential search in 2016, for example), the timing of any Ernst choice will be instructive when it comes to the former president’s hold on Senate Republicans. So, too, will that of No. 5 GOP leader Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a similarly neutral Republican who hails from one of the reddest states in the nation.

A former House member, Capito chalked up the schism between the two chambers’ Republican leaders to the long-term perspective that senators are free to take, thanks to their six-year terms.

“I obviously supported President Trump and his policies. We’re just starting the season, so let’s see what the results are,” Capito said.

Ernst’s and Capito’s endorsements may be the most up for grabs among Senate Republican leaders. The top two GOP senators, McConnell and his deputy John Thune (R-S.D.), both seem highly unlikely to endorse Trump anytime soon.

Trump once threatened Thune with a primary challenge after the South Dakotan panned his push to overturn the 2020 election, but that effort fizzled and Thune easily won reelection in 2022. This presidential cycle, Thune supported Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who later dropped out, and has praised former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Thune said on Wednesday that “everybody’s going to come to their own conclusion” but that he’s staying neutral.

Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), a former Trump aide and staunch supporter, said he absolutely expected that there would be “pressure” on all Republican leaders to endorse the former president. As for the Senate, he doesn’t know “why people are taking their time.”

“I don’t see why not every single Republican is backing Donald Trump at this point,” Miller said in an interview. “All these people know he’s gonna be the nominee. And they’re holding out hope for what? Nikki Haley? Get out of here!”

And Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who has endorsed Haley, recalled Trump warning him that his backing of the former South Carolina governor would come with repercussions.

“He just said: ‘It’s gonna hurt you.’ So? Let’s let the people decide,” Norman said. But he also downplayed the importance of presidential endorsements: “People are not gonna vote for Nikki Haley because of Ralph Norman.”

Trump’s first backer in Senate GOP leadership wants the party to get behind him ASAP, though he’s not quite as direct about it as Miller is.

Trump is “going to be the nominee and the next president of the United States. So I’d like to see more of my colleagues continue to endorse the president,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chair of the party’s campaign arm. Daines said he respects his fellow senators’ decisions but “would encourage and urge them to endorse President Trump.”

Senate GOP leaders count a far higher number of Trump skeptics in their conference than House chiefs. That diversity of opinion makes it more logical for top Senate Republicans to hold out a little longer. Falling in line fast could split the party in a different way, with several GOP senators essentially ruling out support for Trump.

Assessing the groundswell of support on the Hill for the former president, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) lamented that “Republicans are giving up … why shouldn’t we demand the best this country can offer?”

“There is room for an alternative to Trump versus Biden if we make that space, but we so pigeonhole ourselves into thinking that those are our two choices. We’ve already done that before a single primary has happened,” Murkowski said. “Makes you wonder why we do the primaries.”

However, Trump’s weaker foothold in the Senate is in some ways a lagging indicator of the party base. GOP senators are less susceptible to primary challenges than their House colleagues, many of whom hail from red seats where MAGA-friendly foes can quickly emerge. Murkowski, for example, dispatched a Trump-aligned challenger just last year.

Then there’s the special case of Speaker Mike Johnson, who surprised no one when he recently backed Trump. When former Speaker Kevin McCarthy wavered on endorsing Trump last year, it only made his standing in the GOP more precarious.

“It is like betting on a horse when the horse is 20 lengths ahead,” Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) said of his leader endorsing Trump.

McCormick is the rare House Republican who still favors Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the primary, but he added that “I’m a realist. I understand how this works. Everybody wants to cheer for the winning team, and I know how bandwagons work.”