Republicans once slammed John Fetterman as a “radical socialist” who was “too dangerous” to get elected.

These days, they seem to like him just fine.

Now that Fetterman is touting ironclad support for Israel and calling for stricter border policies, his Senate colleagues across the aisle describe him as “independent” and “sticking to his guns.” Interviews with nearly a dozen GOP senators revealed a growing warmth toward Fetterman that goes beyond delight at seeing how much his new identity has irked progressives.

It seems Republicans are now more open to partnering with Fetterman on policy because of his recent party-bucking.

“It certainly makes it more appealing to want to work with him on things if you see this independent streak,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said of Fetterman’s recent remarks.

No grand partnerships have sprung up on legislation just yet. But the mere fact that Republicans view him in those terms is a statement on Fetterman’s political evolution.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who frustrated many in his own party with his months-long blockade of military promotions, lauded Fetterman as someone who “speaks his own mind” and “doesn’t follow the party line.” Tuberville added that “it’s easier to talk, carry on a conversation,” with a political opponent who’s “open-minded.”

It’s unclear whether Fetterman can, or even wants to, leverage his new niche as a Democrat who Republicans can tolerate — possibly even like — into a productive role as a Senate dealmaker. It’s a disappearing typecast: Sens. Mitt Romney‘s (R-Utah) and Joe Manchin‘s (D-W.Va.) imminent retirements are hollowing out the chamber’s small but influential bloc of aisle-crossing negotiators, and that void could grow if Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) also passes on reelection.

But Fetterman’s voting record remains staunchly in line with the rest of his party. In a brief interview for this story, the first-term senator didn’t express explicit interest in taking on more partnerships with the GOP — but he didn’t rule it out, either. Fetterman even argued that Republicans who have personally praised his recent remarks on the border and Israel shouldn’t be so shocked.

“Outside of Philadelphia, they have these gigantic billboards, where it was like, ‘Fetterman = open border’ … it just turns out that it’s all bullshit,” Fetterman said in an interview, referring to Republicans’ 2022 campaign attacks on him. “And I would have thought that professionals would have realized that most of it is all bullshit.”

Just over a year ago, Senate Republicans were working hard to brand Fetterman as a younger version of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — an actual democratic socialist — who was unfit for office. Over the past three months, however, Fetterman showed a side of his ideology that seemed to genuinely startle his GOP colleagues.

Not only did he vocally defend Israel in its war against Hamas, as Sanders and other liberal leaders suggested curbs on U.S. aid, Fetterman defended bipartisan talks on stricter border policies that slow the flow of migrants into the U.S. And he bucked his own leadership by calling for the expulsion of a fellow Democrat, indicted New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez.

“He’s not in lockstep with the progressives in his party … I don’t know if he’s had an epiphany or exactly what’s going on, but [it’s] obviously gotten a lot of people’s attention,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

In fact, Fetterman has repeatedly stressed he is not a progressive. Yet core elements of his political persona remain very much in line with the left: He wants to abolish the filibuster; he wants universal health care, though he’s not embraced Sanders’ flagship “Medicare for all” slogan; he still dons hoodies in the staid Senate, reveling in the establishment’s alarm at his casual garb.

On the campaign trail, Fetterman even quipped that he might let down centrist-leaning “Joe Manchin Democrats,” nudging members of his party to “vote like Democrats.” When it comes to votes during his first year in office, he’s stayed true to that watchword — rarely straying from the party line.

Taking the man as a whole, many Senate Republicans are ready to take a new look at Fetterman.

“I know from politics, my own race, that not everything people say about you is actually true,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who added that Fetterman has said some “smart” things over the past few months, particularly about the border. The two first-term senators have worked together on rail safety legislation that Vance still hopes will pass this year.

Fetterman has also cosponsored several agriculture-focused bills alongside Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who credited the Pennsylvanian for “bucking Biden and everybody else” on immigration. The administration has also been open to bipartisan border talks.

Even off the Hill, Fetterman has won praise from Republicans, including two current GOP Senate candidates. Former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), who’s seeking a comeback in the upper chamber, has said he likes Fetterman. Dave McCormick, who’s hoping to take on Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) next fall, said he’s been “surprised” by Fetterman and that he thinks the Democrat has “moral clarity” on the border and Israel.

Still, Fetterman’s new GOP fans are also curbing their enthusiasm for him. Cramer argued that Fetterman leans liberal on most issues, saying that his “views are largely left, in some cases very left.” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said he appreciated Fetterman “sticking to his guns” on the border and Israel but pushed back on any suggestion that the Democrat is on an all-out independent streak.

Kennedy also indicated that Republicans shouldn’t let Fetterman’s metamorphosis matter too much.

“Just because somebody agrees or disagrees with you doesn’t mean you ought to like or dislike them,” he said. “You should respect differences of opinion.”

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Senate Republicans have a solid shot in the battle for Senate control this year after landing some of their top recruits and nabbing an almost certain pickup. Still, several critical factors could hurt their bid to take back power.

The biggest drama is out West, where independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale are mulling their futures. Their decisions will have crucial implications across the entire map, where Republicans either need to net two seats or win the presidency and gain just one.

Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) retirement has GOP senators confident they’ve got one seat locked down. Winning another could depend heavily on Sinema, Rosendale and a slew of other unknowns.

If Sinema runs for a second term, she would create an unpredictable three-way race as an underdog independent attempting to peel voters from Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake, her party’s presumptive nominee. Rosendale, meanwhile, would create a massive headache for Republicans if he follows through on months of build-up and challenges Tim Sheehy for the GOP nomination in Montana, which is one of the party’s top two Senate targets.

There’s more in flux: Republicans are closely watching whether former President Donald Trump will weigh in on crucial contested primaries in several purple states. And there are still big questions about whether last-minute recruits will help expand the map beyond Ohio, Montana and a half-dozen battlegrounds. Oh, yeah, and the most well-known liberal senator in the country might retire — or serve deep into his 80s.

Here’s what POLITICO is watching as the battle for the Senate heads into a defining stretch:

Big Sky Republican divides

Rosendale’s decision is probably the most important to the Senate map. It would create a GOP primary that could force the national party to spend tens of millions of dollars and divide a state party that needs to throw a perfect game to beat incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

Tester beat Rosendale in 2018 despite support from Trump and Republicans of all stripes. Since then, Rosendale won a House seat and developed a reputation as a notorious rabble-rouser, helping oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and now advocating hardline shutdown positions to get tough new border policies.

He’s signaled to Republicans for months he plans to run. And the party has made it absolutely clear they don’t want him in the Senate race.

“I hope he stays in the House and continues to develop seniority there,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who runs the Senate GOP’s campaign arm.

That hasn’t dissuaded Rosendale. He has needled Sheehy by yoking him to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and suggested to colleagues that he’s going to get in the race. He’s continuing to campaign outside his district and is set to host campaign events with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

“Steve Daines has made it exceedingly clear that the Senate committee is supporting Tim Sheehy,” Rosendale said in a brief interview. “People across Montana still overwhelmingly would rather have someone who is an independent voice for them and not answering to Mitch McConnell.”

The filing deadline is March 11. Tester’s not making any bets, saying in a brief interview: “I can’t predict what the hell he’s going to do.”

Sinema’s choice

The Arizona senator ditched the Democratic Party more than a year ago and only solidified her independent status since then, pursuing a border and immigration agreement that could augment her legacy of bipartisan deal-cutting. Before that, she helped broker a gun safety deal, rejected changes to the filibuster and cut down some provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.

And in her typical reserved style, well, she’s still not looking to talk about her reelection decision-making.

“I’m not thinking about that at all right now. You know what I am thinking [about]?” Sinema said in a brief interview. “The border.”

Sinema, who generally aligns with Democrats on key votes, has until April 8 to decide to run again — but in reality, she would need to start collecting signatures to make the ballot well before then. As an independent candidate, she will face more onerous signature requirements. And if she decides to run, the race would be challenging, to say the least. She consistently lags behind both Gallego and Lake in polls, though she has more than $10 million in her campaign coffers.

“There’s not a path that we can see for Kyrsten in that race,” Daines said. “It’s going to be Kyrsten’s decision, but I think it’s going to be a difficult path for her.”

Still, a Sinema reelection bid would create a chaotic and indecipherable race in a challenging state. It would undoubtedly affect the campaign strategies of both of her foes, even if she starts out in third place.

The Trump effect

Trump handpicked several of the Senate GOP’s candidates in 2022. It didn’t go well — Republicans blew winnable races in states like Arizona and Pennsylvania — but they swear it’ll be different this time.

Trump has backed several of the GOP’s preferred candidates this cycle and, as of now, Trump and Daines differ on only one race: Ohio, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee is neutral, and Trump has endorsed businessperson Bernie Moreno. Yet there’s plenty of opportunities for more mischief.

An endorsement from the former president could whittle down an unruly field in Michigan, where a slew of Senate contenders are vying for his support: Former Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and businessperson Sandy Pensler. And former Rep. Justin Amash, who became a libertarian after voting to impeach Trump, is mulling a run — as a Republican.

The jockeying for Trump’s favor has only grown more heated as he surges in the presidential primary. Pensler just released an ad cataloguing Rogers’ past anti-Trump comments.

“They know he’s going to be the candidate,” Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) said of Trump. The candidates “all want” his endorsement, he added, but “the question is: What’s the advantage to him to give it?”

There’s also a crowded primary in Nevada where Trump could weigh in, featuring his former ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Gunter, hardline conservative Jim Marchant and NRSC-backed veteran Sam Brown. Plus there’s Montana, where Trump’s endorsement could become a key factor if Rosendale gets in — particularly after the lawmaker infamously snubbed Trump on the House floor.

The final recruits

Wisconsin is the preeminent battleground of modern day politics. So how the heck does Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) not have a real GOP challenger yet?

The two-term senator’s expecting one soon: Eric Hovde, a wealthy businessperson who ran for Senate in 2012. Hovde has been interviewing potential staff and consultants ahead of his likely run, according to a person familiar with his plans who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

“Steve Daines … indicated [Hovde] was jumping and had their full support. So that’s what we’re planning” for, Baldwin said in an interview. Still, she said “there may well be” a more crowded primary.

Hovde’s launch would give the Senate GOP its final recruit in their critical battleground targets. But other strong candidates could bring reach seats into play. On the Democratic side, there’s hope Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) can catch fire against conservative Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.).

Nella Domenici, the daughter of New Mexico’s last GOP senator, just launched a run in her typically blue state. And Republicans are always dreaming of big names like Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, though Daines said he hasn’t talked to the Virginia governor about it.

A progressive icon’s big decision

Vermont is no battleground, but it is the home of the highest-profile liberal senator in Congress: Bernie Sanders.

The two-time presidential candidate teased this month that he will make an announcement in the “near future” about his plans. Sanders will be 83 on Election Day, but it would be wrong to assume he’s retiring because of his age — he’s only gained political power since his torrid presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020, becoming Health, Education, Labor and Pensions chair.

“I hope he runs. He’s special. He’s played a special role in the country and a special role in American politics and certainly in Vermont,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.).

If Sanders were to retire, it would leave a void in the progressive movement’s leadership. The gruff liberal is more willing than most in the Senate Democratic caucus to challenge President Joe Biden or other party leaders over hot-button topics, ranging from arming Israel to endorsing primary challenges against his colleagues.

That propensity has seemingly endeared him to voters; Welch called him the “the most popular politician in the country.”