Rep. Tom McClintock said on Tuesday that he will oppose impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas — meaning Republicans have literally no room for error.

If Democrats have full attendance, House GOP leaders can’t afford to have any additional absences or lose a single other GOP vote.

McClintock (R-Calif.), in a lengthy letter to his colleagues, argued that the GOP articles against Mayorkas stretched how the founders would define an impeachable offense. And he warned that, if successful, Republicans were setting a precedent that Democrats might use against them in the future.

“Do Republicans really wish to establish an expansive view of impeachment that will surely be turned against conservatives on the Supreme Court or a future Republican president if Congress changes hands?” McClintock wrote.

He added that while a Cabinet official could be removed for committing a crime, that House Republicans were trying to cross a “bright line” by recommending he be removed from office for carrying out President Joe Biden’s policy decisions on the border. The articles of impeachment against Mayorkas accuse him of a breach of trust and refusing to comply with the law.

McClintock is the second GOP “no” vote in addition to Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who announced last week that he would oppose the historic step of impeaching Mayorkas. A Cabinet official hasn’t been impeached since 1876. McClintock’s opposition, though long expected, underscores the uncertainty heading into Tuesday’s scheduled vote.

Failing to impeach Mayorkas would mark an embarrassing political setback for House Republicans and Speaker Mike Johnson, who have faced intense pressure from their base to impeach Biden or a top official. A failure to impeach Mayorkas could further imperil hopes to eventually impeach the president as well.

There are still several lawmakers who are still publicly undecided, including Reps. David Joyce (R-Ohio), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). And Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s expected absence as he undergoes treatment for blood cancer. If one more holdout votes against impeaching Mayorkas and Democrats have full attendance, the measure would fail.

Homeland Security Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.), asked if he believed he had the votes on Tuesday, said: “We’ll see pretty soon.”

Senate Republicans are clear that they won’t vote to advance bipartisan border and foreign aid legislation on Wednesday. The only remaining question is whether that’s the end of discussion — or just a strategy to push for more time.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is the latest senior GOP conference member to say he’d oppose advancing the legislation this week, arguing that lawmakers “need more time” but adding: “I’m pretty confident we can do better with a new president who actually will enforce the law.”

Some made clear they’d like more time for the Republican conference to consider the proposal, reached between Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) and released over the weekend.

“My intention is to, at least on the motion to proceed, to vote where I think most our conference is going to be — which is no,” said Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.).

However, it’s far from clear even to Lankford whether GOP senators want to take more time on the legislation, which some have pushed for open amendments to, or fully stop work on it. If the bipartisan approach implodes fully amid the Republican resistance, Democratic leaders have not revealed whether or how they plan to win passage of aid to Ukraine and Israel.

Lankford told reporters that “if we’re actually delaying so we can actually get stuff done — and to be able to actually do a passage [vote] — I’m fine to be able to delay” but that “we need to do something.”

Asked jokingly by a reporter how he felt being run over by a metaphorical bus by GOP colleagues opposing his work, Lankford scoffed” “And backed up [over].”

Lead Democratic negotiator Murphy said his Republican colleagues were “not serious people” and slammed their treatment of Lankford’s efforts as “disgusting.”

“How can you trust any Republican right now? How would we know what to do next?” he asked. “They told us what to do. We follow their instructions to the letter, and then they pulled the rug out from under us in 24 hours.”

He added: “They didn’t even give [Lankford] the chance to argue the merits. These are not serious people.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer slammed the abrupt about-face from GOP lawmakers during a floor speech, giving no indication that he would abandon plans to vote on taking up the bill this week.

“This is the new Republican line on the border: it’s an emergency, but it can wait 12 months – or until the end of time,” he said. “What utter bunk.”

John Barrasso, the Senate’s No. 3 GOP leader, opposes the bipartisan border and Ukraine deal — the latest sign of the legislation’s grim prospects.

The Senate Republican conference chair said in a statement to POLITICO that unlike some of his colleagues who have process complaints, he opposes the underlying legislation. Barrasso said the deal “does not meet most Americans’ standard of securing our border now.”

“Joe Biden will never enforce any new law and refuses to use the tools he already has today to end this crisis. I cannot vote for this bill. Americans will turn to the upcoming election to end the border crisis,” Barrasso said.

Barrasso did defend Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) for negotiating the bill, but his opposition is just another stumbling block for the legislation, which is opposed by Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump.

Barrasso, who has endorsed Trump in 2024, is widely seen as the most conservative member of top GOP leadership. He is also one of three Republicans in the mix to succeed Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The other two potential successors, Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. John Cornyn, are both undecided on the border legislation.

The Senate’s bipartisan border security deal – wobbling early on its way to the 60 votes it needs to advance later this week – picked up two big public supporters on Monday.

The first was Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has long championed the border talks as a means to unlock stalled Ukraine aid that he’s made a top priority. While McConnell’s broader backing of the negotiations was no secret, his public call to pass the deal on the Senate floor marked a critical use of his political capital even as many of his own conservative members slammed the agreement.

“The national security legislation we’re preparing to take up will invest heavily in the capabilities and capacity America and our allies need to regain the upper hand over this emerging axis of authoritarians. Make no mistake: the gauntlet has been thrown. And America needs to pick it up,” McConnell said on Monday.

The second endorsement of the border deal came from the union that represents workers at the Border Patrol – the rare labor group that’s known for its ties to former President Donald Trump, who has urged Republicans to reject the Senate agreement.

Despite its Trump ties, the National Border Patrol Council endorsed the Senate deal in a Monday statement, saying that the bill would “codify into law authorities that U.S. Border Patrol agents never had in the past.”

The deal that’s formally named the Border Act, the product of months-long talks led by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), is expected to face a pivotal test vote on Wednesday.

“While not perfect, the Border Patrol Act of 2024 is a step in the right direction and is far better than the current status quo,” the statement read.

The Senate’s bipartisan border and foreign aid deal is already close to failure, with Republicans preparing to block debate on the bill this week — and potentially for longer than that.

The President Joe Biden-backed agreement is getting pummeled from the left and right, but it’s internal GOP angst that’s fueling the likelihood of a filibuster during an expected test vote on Wednesday. After Senate Republicans met for 90 minutes on Monday night to discuss the border deal that a trio of senators forged over the past four months, few of them emerged willing to say they would vote to advance the $118 billion package.

Several members of GOP leadership came out against the legislation in the past 24 hours, further boxing in Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Kentucky Republican, who supports the agreement linking border policy changes with aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, called Monday’s meeting an “interesting discussion.”

Inside the room, McConnell told Republicans that if they didn’t like the direction that the bill is going, they should vote against moving forward this week, according to two people briefed on the meeting who were granted anonymity to speak candidly.

According to two attendees, McConnell did not forcefully whip for or against the bill. He instead discussed the specific policies and politics of the legislation, which is opposed by Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump.

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), who struck the deal, even suggested he might vote against moving forward if his colleagues weren’t ready to move.“That’s not voting against the bill,” Lankford said of voting to filibuster the bill from coming to the floor. “So that’s not the final passage. That’s the beginning point.”

It’s a stunning turnabout from just a few months ago, when Republicans demanded border security policy changes to pair with $60 billion in Ukraine aid requested by Biden. Now Republican support for the legislation is vanishingly hard to find, with just a handful of GOP senators in support. Even moderate Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she was unsure if she would vote to advance the bill.

Lankford added that he’s not sure how much time members will actually want to evaluate the proposal — if that timeline goes beyond Wednesday. Many Senate Republicans want an open amendment process that could drag out debate indefinitely, if leadership allows it.

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), another member of leadership, said “yes” the vote would fail on Wednesday. And Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), who worked closely with negotiators, said there’s “very real concern” that there isn’t enough time to fully discuss it by Wednesday’s scheduled vote, deeming it “too early” for most Senate Republicans.

Several Democrats have warned they would defect as well.

“I don’t see this moving forward. Even before the speaker spoke [against it], I couldn’t see the votes,” said Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), who opposes the legislation and is on the leadership team. “The next step is to look at how we fund Israel.”

After weeks of stops and starts, Lankford, Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) unveiled the legislation on Sunday night, hoping that the legislative text would help beat back conservative attacks on the legislation.

That hasn’t happened, much to the frustration of Lankford’s allies. Republicans now have a fusillade of complaints about the bill, ranging from how its border shutdown authority would work to how long they have to consider it.

“I mean, three minutes after the text was released, people were saying it’s a crap bill,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.). “There’s been people saying that [Lankford] is immoral. If that guy’s immoral, I’m literally swimming in flames.”

There were many absences during Monday’s meeting, so Republicans will hold another party huddle on Tuesday afternoon to further hash out their position. Many now want guarantees of amendment votes from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who set the Wednesday vote in motion on Monday evening.

Those process concerns cloak the real reasons behind many Republicans’ resistance to moving forward: Some don’t want to fund Ukraine, some don’t see the border provisions as strict enough and others don’t want to give Biden a policy win that helps shore up his political standing on the immigration issue.

Still others are unsure about advancing a bill the House GOP says it won’t even take up.

“Hanging over this bill like a brooding omnipresence in the sky is the position of Majority Leader Scalise and Speaker Johnson that the bill will never even be considered by the House. And that’s a factor that’s got to be taken into consideration,” said an undecided Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.).

Senate negotiators have two days to get to 60 votes on their $118 billion-plus proposal to pair major immigration policy changes with aid to Ukraine and Israel.

So far, they’re not having a lot of luck.

There are already 24 senators who stand as likely or outright nos on the bill, according to a POLITICO survey of all 100 senators. That’s past the halfway mark to a filibuster, leaving the deal dangerously close to failing during an expected Wednesday test vote.

Those no votes include three Democratic caucus members: Bob Menendez (N.J.); Alex Padilla (Calif.); and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who does not support unconditional aid to Israel.

Plus 21 Republican nos or likely nos: Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), Mike Braun (Ind.), Katie Britt (Ala.), Ted Budd (N.C.), Tom Cotton (Ark.), Ted Cruz (Texas), Steve Daines (Mont.), Deb Fischer (Neb.), Bill Hagerty (Tenn.), Josh Hawley (Mo.), Ron Johnson (Wisc.), Mike Lee (Utah), Roger Marshall (Kan.), Rand Paul (Ky.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), Mike Rounds (S.D.), Eric Schmitt (Mo.), Tim Scott (S.C.), Rick Scott (Fla.), Tommy Tuberville (Ala.) and J.D. Vance (Ohio).

Not to mention the handful of Republicans who sound on the fence, like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). He said he’s “open-minded on steps we can take to make the bill stronger.” He forecasted that unless amendments are offered, the bill would collapse.

But as Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) warned on Monday, an open amendment process could turn into a free-for-all by allowing critical conservatives to delay a final vote indefinitely.

“I don’t want this to turn into a filibuster, which it easily could,” Durbin told reporters.” That’s the problem. And I think Senator McConnell knows it.”

Several members of GOP leadership, like Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), said they are still reviewing the deal’s text. Other Republicans seem to be weighing their colleagues’ reactions before making a call.

“It will take days and weeks, not minutes and hours, to evaluate it. If we can’t get half of the conference, we shouldn’t move forward,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in a statement.

Republicans could get a better sense of where their side stands during a closed-door conference meeting later on Monday. Meanwhile, plenty of Democrats still have not weighed in on the deal, which adds to the uncertainty given the progressive pushback that the border accord has long faced.

Some liberal senators, like Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), have stayed mum on their stance. Warren’s spokesperson said that she is still reviewing the details of the legislation.

Padilla, who’s long aired worries that the border negotiations were moving too far to the right for his taste, said “there’s a lot of calls and meetings that are happening.” He predicted that amendments wouldn’t solidify Democratic support either.

“I don’t see Republicans going for amendments that would make the package better,” he said.

Asked whether any of the no votes are flippable, Lankford admitted that he doesn’t know.

“Many of my colleagues said they needed a week or two or three weeks to be able to go through it to make a decision – and then they made decisions within minutes or hours,” he said.

If there’s a Plan B for foreign aid in case the border security package fails, its negotiators haven’t said yet. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has teed up a key test vote on the measure for Wednesday.

Asked about a backup plan for Ukraine aid, Durbin replied that “beating Putin is plan A, B and C.”

The Senate is currently slated to leave town at the end of this week for a two-week recess. When they come back, they’ll be facing a government funding deadline within days. And in case you were wondering, Congress has taken no floor votes on individual government spending bills since it last punted its shutdown deadlines.