The Hill’s nonpartisan ethics watchdog found probable cause to believe Rep. Troy Nehls used campaign funds for personal use, according to a new report released Friday.

“[T]here is probable cause to believe that Rep. Nehls may have converted campaign funds to personal use by expending funds that were not attributable to bona fide campaign or political purposes,” wrote the board of the Office of Congressional Ethics.

The investigation was disclosed in a report released Friday by the House Ethics Committee, which is evenly split between both parties.

The Texas Republican’s congressional campaign made periodic rent payments since the 2020 campaign cycle to a company, Liberty 1776 LLC, owned and operated by Nehls and headquartered at his home address, according to the report. The company’s right to do business in Texas had been terminated by the state in 2022 for failing to pay taxes.

But his campaign listed a separate venue, “Freedom Hall,” as its headquarters. OCE wrote that it had been a bar or tavern later converted into an Islamic center and boarding school. No rent payments were directly recorded from the Nehls campaign to the venue or the entity that owned it.

Although campaign rules don’t prohibit lawmakers from providing services like rental space to their campaigns, they have to do so at fair market values. Nehls and his staff did not cooperate with the ethics investigation, according to OCE, leaving the watchdog without clarification from his camp.

Jerad Najvar, an attorney for Nehls, denied the allegations in a response released along with the report. The payments from Nehls’ campaign to Liberty 1776 LLC were for rent at the Freedom Hall location, Najvar wrote, which was used for campaign events and activities during the 2020 and 2022 cycles.

“While Respondent was a member of the LLC and established the entity, he took no salary and did not otherwise receive any profits from its operation,” Navjar wrote.

Nehls, in a statement, said he refused to cooperate with OCE because it was created under former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but “my books remain open, and I am cooperating with the legitimate House Committee on Ethics.”

House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said President Joe Biden should not have announced his plans to withhold weapons from Israel.

“I don’t think he should have done it publicly,” Smith said Friday on CNN. “I think the private conversations were very appropriate.”

Why it matters: It’s rare for a Democrat to break with Biden, and for the most part the president’s decision has been celebrated by progressives. Smith, as the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, has an outsized voice on national security matters.

Refresher: Biden said in a CNN interview that aired Wednesday that he would halt shipments of bombs and other munitions to Israel if it launched a major military invasion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

Support continues: It’s plain that the U.S. supports Israel as evidenced by the recent aid package and the military’s “huge role” in downing a barrage of Iranian missiles fired at Israel, Smith said. What’s less clear is what weapons Biden is restricting and that he wants Israel not to launch a full invasion of Rafah.

“I don’t think that is as clear as it should be, and I think the president should clear it up,” Smith said.

It’s also given Republicans ammunition to attack Biden as having backed off its Israel support.

“The facts don’t back that up,” Smith said.

Blame Hamas: The disclosure obscures that Hamas is the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire that’s been on the table for months, Smith said.

“We have to keep the pressure on Hamas to agree to that ceasefire,” he said.

An alternative to withholding weapons, Smith said, could have been to send them with restrictions on their use, as it does with Ukraine.

The Senate passed a five-year FAA reauthorization Thursday night with overwhelming bipartisan support — except from the Virginia and Maryland delegations, who are furious about an expansion of flights at Reagan National Airport.

The Senate cleared the major reauthorization 88-4. But the DMV senators held up the separate weeklong extension bill out of frustration about the DCA slots disagreement. The House had already left town after passing the short term extension to buy time before Friday’s expiration deadline.

But after 8 p.m., the holdouts relented.

“Out of concern for the safety of the flying public and in order to provide certainty to air traffic controllers and other essential personnel, Senator Warner and Senator Kaine have lifted their holds on the short-term FAA extension,” a spokesperson said.

Without the extension, current authorities would have expired overnight Friday, forcing the furlough of some 3,600 employees. (But note: Air traffic controllers are deemed “essential” employees and would nonetheless have continued working.)

A bit of added angst: Democratic Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine had to preside over the Senate as the agreement to speed up action on the FAA bill — without action on his DCA amendment — was being finalized.

“The Senate abdicated its responsibility to protect the safety of the 25 million people who fly through DCA every year. Just weeks after two aircraft nearly crashed into one another at DCA, this body refused to take up our commonsense amendment to remove a dangerous provision that would have crammed more flights onto the busiest runway in America,” Kaine and Warner said in a joint statement.

They say that “a few lawmakers’ desire for direct flights” won out over “the safety and convenience of the traveling public.”

The Senate was squeezed by the House on this key piece of legislation. With the one-week extension locked in, the House can now take control of the five-year reauthorization bill and are not forced to swallow what the Senate sent them against a pressing deadline. The House is expected to take the bill up on Tuesday when they return to Washington — many through DCA.

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.

There are several Republicans running for the Senate who have sizable net worths and can self-fund to help counteract Democrats’ big financial advantage.

Then there’s Jim Banks.

The Indiana Republican fits a different profile as he seeks the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who is running for governor. We looked at his comparatively modest financial disclosures: He’s got a mortgage, some retirement funds and some savings — just like a lot of his constituents.

“I don’t come from a rich or powerful family, I’m not a self-funder,” Banks said in an interview this week after he coasted to the GOP nomination. “At this point, that’s a rare circumstance [in the Senate] to come from that kind of background.”

“I grew up in a trailer park. That’s where I came from. And what’s incredible about that, is that working-class background is the same background as most people from Indiana,” Banks added. “I come from a place where I can represent the people who elected me to serve them and I think that’s a powerful asset to take to the Senate.”

Indeed, Banks is representative of a Republican Party that shifted toward working-class voters in the Trump era, even as the president’s rhetoric and some of the party’s positions turned off college-educated voters and those in the suburbs. In some ways, Indiana is one of the epicenters of Trump’s appeal: On Election Night in 2016, it was the first state results to roll in showing Trump exceeding expectations — in a place Barack Obama won in 2008 and former Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly won in 2012.

Oh yeah, and Banks was elected that year too.

As a conservative on social and fiscal issues, Banks is certainly in line with other GOP senators he’s likely to serve with. But getting to the Senate is hard for people with young families like Banks, requiring financial dexterity and sacrifice. At 44, he’ll be one of the youngest members of the chamber — and with Sen. Todd Young, 51, they’ll form one of the most youthful tandems in the Senate.

Banks rattled off some of the things that make his personal life, well, kind of normal: He went to a public school and state college, he shops at Walmart and he struggled during the pandemic because he and his wife couldn’t afford full-time childcare. There are several other senators with young families juggling it all to make it work, but it’s certainly not the norm.

“I don’t know that it makes me any different or special,” Banks said. “If that is unique in the Senate, that’s unfortunate. Because it’s the background of where most ‘normal people’ are coming from these days.”

Banks once took an interesting path once he got to Congress. He lost a whip race in the House in 2022, then dove into a Senate race and quickly moved to ice out former Gov. Mitch Daniels. He ended up unopposed for the GOP nomination, and Democrats are defending so many seats elsewhere that they are barely contesting the seat.

Banks will bring a different variety to the chamber, should he win. And if Republicans can manage to take the Senate, the White House and keep the House, he’ll have something to say about the expiring Trump tax cuts.

“If there’s any mistake that we made with tax cuts 2017, it’s that we emphasized permanent corporate tax cuts instead of keeping the individual rates permanent … the emphasis should have been on that. So we can’t make mistakes like that in the future,” Banks said. He added the “impact of those rate changes for working-class families was real. And we’ve got to make those permanent.”

As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will “stand alone” if it has to, leading congressional Republicans are pressuring President Joe Biden to rule out withholding weapons to the allied country — regardless of any invasion into the Gaza city of Rafah.

“We should not be telling them how to protect themselves,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in an interview. “We should not be conditioning the arrival of military equipment that they need because of some domestic view that Netanyahu is unpopular. Completely irrelevant to the war.”

The Senate GOP leader played a major role in delivering the combination of Ukraine and Israel aid last month, working alongside Biden and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Now, as the president threatens to withhold certain weapons to the country, citing the ongoing invasion into Rafah, McConnell is forcefully pushing back, saying Biden can’t now put his thumb on the scale.

“It’s a democratic ally with an elected government — a unity government — and we shouldn’t be telling them how to conduct a war on their own borders,” he said. “If they are a democratic ally, we don’t get to pick the leaders. And this is a unity government … it’s not about the prime minister.”

McConnell’s remarks follow Speaker Mike Johnson indicating in a POLITICO interview Wednesday night that he felt betrayed by Biden’s decision. The House GOP leader said he spoke to Netanyahu to find out what was going on, and that the prime minister confirmed Biden had withheld the bombs.

“So yesterday, I talked with Prime Minister Netanyahu about it, and I wanted to get confirmation from him exactly what’s happening. And he described exactly what was happening before the news was confirmed,” Johnson said. “I went straight to the White House, and I said, ‘What gives? Somebody’s going to have to explain this to me, because it’s very different than what I was told.’”

That’s not to say Biden’s comments didn’t find supporters. The president has faced unrelenting criticism from a significant faction of his own party over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. But his threat to pause certain weapon shipments received rare praise from progressives and other leading Democrats.

“I’ve always said that Israel must defeat Hamas. The question is whether invading Rafah ultimately helps or hurts that cause,” said Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. “After meeting with the Israeli Ambassador today for an hour, I’m even more skeptical of their plan. I support President Biden’s decision.”

The Israeli leader has a history of working around Democratic presidents, accepting an invite from Republican congressional leaders in 2015 after he was denied a meeting with then-President Barack Obama amid negotiations with Iran. Speaking at a joint session of Congress, Netanyahu used his spotlight to bash U.S. foreign policy.

Johnson had reportedly considered inviting Netanyahu to deliver another joint session speech in March, though it never materialized. Schumer and Johnson are expected to invite Netanyahu to address the Congress at some point soon, though.

McConnell dismissed any idea that Netanyahu was going around Biden to lobby Republican leaders this time, saying he communicates with the Israeli government “routinely, but that isn’t really the point.”

Netanyahu frequently speaks with congressional Republicans, as aid to his country had stalled in the House and Democrats’ criticisms of the Israeli leader grew more pointed. Netanyahu joined Senate Republicans via live video conference in March, bashing Schumer for calling for new elections in Israel. He also welcomed a GOP congressional delegation in April.

Schumer had declined Netanyahu’s offer to address Senate Democrats as well, criticizing party-specific presentations as a way to further politicize Israel and Ukraine aid. On Wednesday, Schumer responded to the hold-up on some weapons: “Israel and America have an ironclad relationship and I have faith in what the Biden administration is doing.”

It’s not just McConnell and Johnson blasting Biden’s threats to withhold weapons. Senate Republicans from across the ideological spectrum, from conservative Ted Cruz (Texas) to moderate Susan Collins (Maine), held a press conference Thursday, pushing a resolution condemning any efforts to hold delivery of weapons to Israel.

The GOP bloc was led by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) who indicated bluntly that “I trust Israel more than I trust [Defense Secretary Lloyd] Austin.”

Not everyone in Biden’s party is happy, either. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), an outspoken supporter of Israel, agreed with the criticism of the president: “Hard disagree and deeply disappointing” he said of Biden’s comments.

“The President’s actions signal weakness to Hamas, to our allies and adversaries abroad, and at home,” wrote centrist Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) in a post of X. “Congress appropriated funds for arms and ammunition for Israel, and they should be promptly delivered.”

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was never hugely popular among her more centrist colleagues. After forcing a vote on ousting Speaker Mike Johnson, even droves of conservatives seem to have abandoned her — leaving the Georgia firebrand with next to no allies in the House.

“People are calling me saying: ‘Please, tell her to not do this.’ Mike is a good man. He’s doing the best he can. Trump’s calling her and telling her not to,” said Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.). ”I think she’s lost a whole lot of respect in her district.”

Greene finally followed through on her six-week threat to force a referendum vote on Johnson’s speakership Wednesday. Ten Republicans joined her effort, though it’s unclear whether all of them would’ve voted to depose the GOP leader.

Johnson hasn’t publicly indicated that he’ll punish Greene for her failed push, but the vast majority of House Republicans — exhausted with the constant chaos of their slim majority — are writing her off entirely as a bothersome sideshow. While there’s little chance Greene would lose her reelection bid in November, her growing list of foes could mean a severely restricted future for the Georgia firebrand, at least in the House.

“She’s fundraising,” one member, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said. “She’s pissed off because she was friends with [former Speaker Kevin] McCarthy and she missed the first vacancy, so she called the second vacancy.”

Greene has kept at least one major ally in all this, however: former President Donald Trump. In a post on his social network, Trump disagreed with Greene’s tactics on the motion to vacate the speakership but quickly added “I absolutely love Marjorie Taylor Greene.” Never mind that she had ignored the former president’s own efforts to privately stave off her efforts.

And Greene defended her tactics Wednesday evening as she stood next to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), her main ally, and spoke with reporters immediately after the vote.

“I’m proud of myself, because this is the whole reason why I ran for Congress. … I’m sick and tired of the Republican Party that never does what they say they’re going to do. I’m tired of them making promises on television,” she said.

She also hit back at criticism that she’s out of touch with her own constituents, adding: “I’m doing everything I promised my district when I ran for Congress.”

Meanwhile, her colleagues were taking every opportunity to publicly disparage her. When she came onto the floor to announce she was forcing the ouster vote, her GOP colleagues heckled and booed her. Democrats loudly yelled “Hakeem!” referring to the minority leader, who has an unusual amount of power this Congress given deep GOP divisions.

At one point, as Greene was speaking with a large scrum of reporters outside the Capitol after the vote failed, Rep. Brandon Williams — standing alongside his fellow New York Republicans — started yelling over her, saying: “Why do those losers get all of the attention?”

“Moscow Marjorie has clearly gone off the deep end — maybe the result of a space laser,” scoffed Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.).

Even Johnson himself, who has a reputation for his conciliatory approach and not seeking retribution against his members, got in an indirect dig at the Georgia Republican on Wednesday.

“Hopefully this is the end of the personality politics and the frivolous character assassination that has defined 118th Congress,” he said. “It’s regrettable.”

The Main Street Republicans, who are more establishment-minded and were furious with Greene’s effort to boot Johnson, went out of their way to bash Greene, speaking with reporters before and after the vote.

“Listen, all of us in life get to decide how we handle disappointment. You can be productive or you can be destructive. Ms. Taylor Greene is choosing destructive,” Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), chair of that group, said before the vote. “She is engaged in a failing act of political theater.”

Even some Democrats, who otherwise might have been glad to see GOP disunity, made it clear they’re taking her antics personally. Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska, one of the more centrist members of the Democratic coalition, noted that the last GOP speaker fight called her back to Washington shortly after her husband died in a plane crash.

“This isn’t a game or a joke for us,” Peltola, who supported keeping Johnson, said in a statement. “There’s real work that needs to get done.”

Even outside Republican groups hammered Greene, pushing for a return to more stable governance.

“The MTG fiasco shows again why our party has a problem with unserious crybabies. These are people who grandstand, fundraise for themselves, and disrupt the GOP’s responsible governing agenda,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, in a statement. “We cannot keep repeating this juvenile nonsense every six months.”

Nicholas Wu and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

After Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s doomed referendum on Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership, a growing number of her GOP colleagues are pushing bigger consequences for her and other rebels.

Those Republicans are proposing to build specific punishments into conference rules that would be triggered if hardliners keep breaking ranks against leadership. Sanctions getting floated include arming the entire conference with the ability to force a vote on yanking their committees or even ejecting them from the conference altogether.

The same consequences may also be on the table for Republicans who vote to block GOP bills from even getting to the floor — a once-rare show of discontent that has become increasingly popular on the House’s right flank.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some changes on a couple of committees after watching that motion to table vote,” remarked Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) as he exited the Capitol late Wednesday.

Frustration in the conference’s centrist wing has simmered for months, but it’s boiling over thanks to a growing concern: Greene hasn’t ruled out striking again, keeping alive worries among her colleagues that the Georgia Republican may well take another shot at Johnson.

And, more broadly, GOP lawmakers fret that the House could be stuck in a self-inflicted chaos loop that hobbles them heading into November — unless they course-correct.

“There is an extremely high level of interest, by a high number of members, to change the rules right now,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), the chair of the Main Street Caucus.

He added that after Greene’s decision to force a no-confidence vote, he expects renewed GOP conversations about “what rules do we need in place for the House to function, period. … I am interested in anything that would make the House run better.”

So far, the public warning signs that she’s pushed many in the conference toward their breaking point aren’t fazing Greene, who has said she doesn’t mind retribution.

“They probably want to kick me off committees. They probably want a primary. I say, go ahead. … That is absolutely their problem,” she said after Wednesday’s vote.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), her main ally in the ouster effort, was even more unbowed. He predicted that Republicans who opposed trying to strip Johnson of the speaker’s gavel were going to “take an ass-whooping from their base.”

There are plenty of reasons to doubt that Republicans could muscle through rules changes they see as necessary to protecting their majority. But more and more of them are fed up: Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) and Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) both proposed during a recent closed-door conference meeting to remove members from committees if they vote against rules for debate. Van Orden and McClintock later confirmed their position to POLITICO.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) explicitly reupped those calls after Wednesday’s vote, floating the ejection of Massie and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), in particular, from the Rules Committee — after they voted to keep Greene’s ouster push alive. Others have privately discussed the idea of expanding the Rules panel, with more Republicans to counteract those who have blocked bills from reaching the floor.

Members of the Main Street Caucus, in particular, were interested in building specific consequences into the rules even before Greene triggered her vote. Their push stemmed from their growing belief that Republicans are no longer united around what was once a constant of the majority: That you vote for a rule to get your party’s priorities to the floor even if you oppose the underlying legislation.

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), in an interview this week ahead of the vote, recalled that former Speaker John Boehner gave him four core principles upon his arrival in Congress in 2015, with the first one being: Don’t vote against a rule from your own party.

“We now have people that routinely vote against the rules … so I think we bottomed out,” said Zinke, arguing that Republicans should honor Boehner’s edict.

“I would suggest a 80 percent rule. Oddly enough, what the Freedom Caucus has. If someone routinely violates the rules … then it should be the conference’s decision of whether he should be removed or suspended from committees,” he added.

But Republicans are increasingly acknowledging that they will have to wait until January to change their biggest procedural pet peeve: The ability of any one member to trigger a speaker-ousting vote. Given opposition from conservatives in their own ranks — who privately told Johnson this week that they didn’t support raising the threshold — they would need Democratic help to do so before 2025. And that is likely to come with too many concessions.

Still, Republicans pushing for broader changes are hoping that by giving the power to the entire GOP conference to pull members off committees, it would take the onus off of the speaker or GOP leader — and thus lessen the risk of blowback.

Even if they can’t formally boot Greene from committees, many House Republicans believe she’s isolated herself within the conference, on top of being voted out of the Freedom Caucus and losing McCarthy as her inroad to influencing leadership.

“She’s an island unto herself right now,” Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) said.

Still, Johnson is unlikely to heed the latest calls, having already warned that removing people from committees could backfire. Plus, conservatives believe he isn’t the type to seek retribution.

The speaker said that he talked with Greene and her allies on Wednesday night immediately after the vote and told them he isn’t holding a grudge, indicating he’s ready to move past the drama.

“They were some of the last to leave. And, I said, ‘You know what? I don’t carry grudges, and I’m not angry about this. We have to work together. And I want to work with you guys. And those ideas we were talking about? I’m still working on them. So I hope we can put this behind us and move forward,’” he told POLITICO in an interview.

Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

Electorally vulnerable Senate Democrats are in a tricky position over Biden administration plans to allow Palestinian refugees into the U.S. — a move that’s becoming a political football in the party’s toughest races.

The idea of allowing Palestinian refugees into the U.S. blends a couple of political problem points for Democrats. It touches on immigration, a subject Republicans regularly hammer their opponents on, and it could also be seen as a referendum on Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza, where high civilian casualties have sent many fleeing for refuge.

“I’ve been clear that allowing anyone to enter the country without being properly vetted and going through a legal process undermines our national security,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). “And that neighboring countries in the region including Egypt and Jordan should play a leading role in taking in refugees.”

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) said the White House and Biden’s administration should keep its focus on a bigger prize: “The administration should be focused on reaching an agreement that ends the fighting, frees the hostages and gets much-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza.”

The plan from the administration — which has not been finalized — would open a pathway for entry to Palestinian refugees who have family members that are U.S. citizens or permanent residents. It would be a small portion of the larger population of Palestinians affected by worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza.

Still, with just about six months until Election Day, Democrats from red and purple states are hesitant to stick their neck out for the plan. And GOP Senate candidates are starting to focus on the issue: Dave McCormick is hitting Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) for not doing more to stop the resettlement program, while Bernie Moreno is asking Brown to stop the plan.

The result has been a swirl of lukewarm responses from frontline Senate Democrats. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who’s in an increasingly competitive race, said she’s “focused on ensuring the safe release of hostages held by Hamas and am closely monitoring the current negotiations.”

“At the same time, more must be done to reduce civilian casualties and provide humanitarian assistance, which is why I’m encouraged to see the dramatic increase in aid being delivered in Gaza,” she added in a statement.

Casey echoed a similar sentiment, with a spokesperson saying in a statement that the senator “is focused on supporting Israel as it prosecutes its war against terrorist Hamas leaders, getting the hostages home, and ensuring Israel fulfills its obligation to prioritize humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza. He believes U.S. focus should be on these three goals right now.”

Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic nominee for the Michigan Senate race, appears to be keeping a fairly neutral tone, too. Slotkin spokesperson Lynsey Mukomel said “the U.S. has a long-standing program to vet and allow entry for refugees.”

“That program has long applied to Palestinians in some circumstances, and the congresswoman expects that to continue in line with USCIS plans,” Mukomel added.

Senate Republicans have cast opening the door to an influx of Palestinian refugees as a national security risk. A letter penned by 34 Senate Republicans last week to Biden said, “we are not confident that your administration can adequately vet this high-risk population for terrorist ties and sympathies before admitting them into the United States.”

One vulnerable senator POLITICO surveyed gave a slightly more positive response to the administration’s reported plans. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said in a statement: “The U.S. has a proud tradition of sheltering innocent civilians fleeing war and persecution while also ensuring Americans’ safety. Refugees are thoroughly vetted before they enter the United States to ensure they are not a threat to Americans.”