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In Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s perfect world, he’d be ready by this time next week to start voting on the GOP’s sweeping megabill.

But this world is far from perfect, Thune and fellow Senate Republicans learned Tuesday. A host of concerns from diverse pockets of the GOP are threatening his grand plan of winning Senate passage by July 4 — with some in his ranks warning of an epic face-plant if Republican leaders push too hard, too fast.

“My guess is it will fail,” predicted Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) when asked about potentially calling votes next week. “I don’t want to see it fail. I want this thing to succeed.”

Monday’s highly anticipated release of legislative text on tax, health care and other key policy provisions only served to underscore the challenges yet to be overcome. Fiscal hawks like Johnson are sounding the alarm that the bill doesn’t do nearly enough to lower the deficit. More moderate senators are voicing deep unease about new Medicaid provisions. Still others don’t like the proposed changes to clean-energy incentives or President Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts.

These considerable policy gaps are up against a thin Republican majority — Thune has only three votes to spare, and one all-but-guaranteed “no” vote in Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky — and a seemingly impossible timeline. Leaders are hoping to take a first vote on the megabill by next Wednesday or Thursday, according to GOP senators and aides, setting up final passage over the weekend.

But committees are still trying to get fiscal estimates for their proposals as well as final rulings from the Senate parliamentarian, which could jettison some of their pet provisions from the bill at the 11th hour.

While Vice President JD Vance backed the July 4 target for Senate passage during a closed-door lunch with Republican senators Tuesday, he pointed to the August recess as the ultimate deadline for getting a bill to Trump’s desk, according to two attendees.

The pessimism about quick Senate action has drifted downtown, where lobbyists are still poring over the 549-page text released Monday by the Senate Finance Committee. K Street power players are closely monitoring the negative reactions inside the Senate GOP.

“The general sense downtown that is causing concern is that the bill in its current form cannot pass either body,” said one lobbyist at a prominent Washington firm who was granted anonymity to share their views candidly. “So the bill is still, by necessity, open and will be changed.”

Another lobbyist, speaking under similar conditions, said that as Senate Republicans “have to shift policy to get votes, there are big dollars in play” that could force lawmakers to explore deep cuts in other policy areas — cuts that could expose entirely new fissures.

And that’s setting aside another inconvenient fact for Republicans: Whatever changes the Senate makes, the House will have to weigh in again after only narrowly passing its carefully crafted version of the bill last month. Some senators are already suggesting the House will just have to deal with whatever ends up getting sent back over.

“We first get 51 senators together and then we’ll see what the House can do,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said Tuesday, referring to the contentious Finance text as “an initial draft.”

Getting 51 senators, however, is looking like a tall order.

GOP Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Susan Collins of Maine reiterated their concerns Tuesday with the Finance proposal to cap medical provider taxes that fund state obligations to Medicaid, arguing that it could hurt rural hospitals.

Though her state doesn’t use provider taxes, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has her own concerns about different Medicaid language pertaining to new work requirements. Asked if she is prepared to vote down the bill over the Medicaid issues, she said, “I don’t think it’s going to stay in this form.”

Hawley separately critiqued the tax provisions rolled out by Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), calling the package a “departure from what President Trump called for” in a Tuesday morning interview with MAGA strategist Steve Bannon: “They want to roll back some of these Trump tax cuts, the populist tax cuts: no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime.”

He told reporters in the Capitol that he had spoken with Trump about the Senate proposal, describing the president as “surprised” by the bill’s Medicaid language. And Collins, who met with Vance separately this week, said she is still suggesting changes to the bill.

Thune, after the Senate’s closed-door lunch, acknowledged he is still negotiating with members of his conference, including Hawley and Collins, about “components or pieces of the bill that they would like to see modified or changed.”

Items that are likely to be the subject of the heaviest lobbying include a tax cut for pass-through businesses that was reduced from the House plan as well as a planned increase in university endowment taxes — even though Senate Republicans significantly softened what House Republicans had proposed.

The job of threading the needle has largely fallen to Crapo, the stealthy dealmaker who crafted the Medicaid and tax portion of the legislation and briefed GOP conference members Monday on the policies.

“He did what he does best: balanced everybody’s concerns and found the sweetest spot he could find, and it’s not adequate for some people,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) of how Crapo’s been fielding concerns from his colleagues.

One major issue is that Crapo’s draft made some business tax cuts permanent rather than sunsetting them at the end of 2029, as the House did — a key priority for himself and his fellow Finance Committee Republicans, but at the expense of some other provisions, including the provider tax.

“Every spending reduction that we were able to achieve was helpful in achieving the permanence,” Crapo told reporters Tuesday, estimating the Medicaid changes alone generated hundreds of billions of dollars in offsets.

But GOP senators who expected Crapo’s Medicaid language to largely match the House’s were caught off guard by those changes, and now he and Thune are dealing with potentially time-consuming pushback.

“I never thought we could get it done by the Fourth of July,” said Murkowski. “But you know what? I’m not in charge of the schedule.”

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) castigated President Donald Trump as a “vindictive president on a tour of retribution” and warned of what the administration was doing to Americans around the country in “places where there are no cameras” in his first comments on the Senate floor since his handcuffing at Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s press briefing last week.

Padilla’s handcuffing marked a sharp turn in an already dramatic week for Los Angeles, where Trump last week deployed National Guard troops and Marines to contain protests and unrest that erupted in response to the administration’s immigration detentions in the city. The altercation sparked outrage from Democrats, who slammed the administration’s heavy-handed response to a sitting senator.

In a statement released at the time, Padilla — as well as other Democrats who jumped on the messaging bandwagon — warned that his treatment by federal law enforcement portended higher risks for ordinary Americans.

He emphasized the same message to his Senate colleagues on Tuesday, cautioning that such a crackdown threatened to scare Americans into silence.

“How many Americans in the year 2025 see a vindictive president on a tour of retribution, unrestrained by the majority of this separate and coequal branch of government and wonder if it’s worth it to stand up or to speak out? If a United States senator becomes too afraid to speak up, how can we expect any other American to do the same?” Padilla said on Tuesday.

The California senator got emotional while describing how he struggled to maintain his balance as he was manhandled and forced out of the briefing room last week, before he was shoved to the ground and handcuffed, “first on my knees and then flat on my chest,” he recounted.

Padilla said he was placed in cuffs after attempting to ask a question pushing back against Noem’s claim that “the purpose of federal law enforcement and the purpose of the United States military was to ‘liberate Los Angeles from our governor and our mayor,’” which the senator decried as an “un-American” sentiment.

Noem and other administration officials have defended the actions, saying Padilla was just trying to draw attention to himself. “It wasn’t becoming of a U.S. senator or a public official, and perhaps he wanted the scene,” Noem told Fox News shortly after the dustup.

Padilla said that he had been escorted into the briefing room by a National Guardsman and an FBI agent, of whom he had asked permission to attend Noem’s press conference and who had walked him through security screening. Still, Padilla said, the law enforcement personnel “stood by silently” as he was forcibly removed from the room and handcuffed.

“If what you saw happen can happen when the cameras are on, imagine not only what can happen but what is happening in so many places where there are no cameras,” Padilla said, before warning that the incident was “not just about immigrant communities or even just the state of California — it’s about every single American who values their constitutional rights.”

The senator encouraged Americans to exercise their right to peacefully protest in the face of the increasing crackdowns from the Trump administration, adding that “no one is coming to save us but us.”

“If this administration is this afraid of just one senator with a question, colleagues, imagine what the voices of tens of millions of Americans peacefully protesting can do,” he said.

The sweeping domestic policy package House Republicans passed last month would increase the U.S. deficit by $2.8 trillion over a decade when considering economic effects, according to Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper.

That’s above the $2.4 trillion price tag the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated in a prior analysis that did not factor in how the legislation would change interest rates, inflation and economic growth. Republicans have anticipated the new “dynamic” analysis would include significant growth effects, reducing the overall fiscal impact of the Republican megabill.

CBO did find that the legislation would modestly boost economic growth over a decade, by 0.5 percent on average. But those effects would be swamped by the costs of higher interest rates, forecasters found, which would boost payments on the national debt by an estimated $440 billion over that time. Over five years, inflation would increase “by a small amount” because of the bill, the budget office predicts.

Senate Republicans are racing now to finalize changes to the House-passed version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” they want to send to President Donald Trump’s desk by July 4 to enact the president’s biggest campaign-trail promises.

In a separate “distributional” analysis last week, CBO forecast that the House bill would cause the lowest-income households in the United States to lose $1,600 a year in federal resources, while increasing resources by $12,000 for the highest-income households.

Democrats are using CBO’s predictions to fuel their attacks against the package. The new report published Tuesday “will disappoint every Republican who hoped tax breaks for billionaires would magically pay for themselves,” said Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee.

Vice President JD Vance expressed confidence Congress could deliver President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” by July 4 as he left a closed-door lunch with GOP senators Tuesday at the Capitol.

“I mean, look, I can’t make any promises … I can’t predict the future, but I do think that we’re in a good place to get this done by the July 4 recess,” Vance told reporters.

Vance said he was “gratified and optimistic” by what he heard from GOP senators who are racing to resolve major policy disputes over Medicaid and tax incentives after Senate Finance proposed changes Monday that caught some Republicans off guard.

The vice president said he met Monday with Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who’s raised concerns with potential cuts to Medicaid, including the Senate’s proposal to pare down the provider tax several states use to fund their Medicaid programs.

“She’s got some concerns. And other folks have concerns. You just have to work through them,” Vance said. “You have to identify ‘what are the ways that we can address those concerns?’ If we can’t address that concern in your preferred way, is there another way that we can fix it that’s just part of the legislative process?”

Vance underscored there was broad alignment among the GOP over blocking undocumented people from using Medicaid, along with those who choose not to work. Negotiations will focus on satisfying senators with concerns around further changes, he added.

“They’re all very confident we’re eventually going to get there,” Vance said.

As Vance left the meeting, he also huddled with Mehmet Oz, the CMS administrator who attended the lunch with GOP senators.

Utah Sen. Mike Lee, amid widespread outrage, has deleted a pair of social media posts associating the deadly Minnesota shootings last weekend with “Marxists” and the state’s Democratic governor.

The move to remove the X posts came amid criticism from a Republican colleague Tuesday. Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota told reporters said Lee’s decision to comment online over the weekend “seems insensitive, to say the least, inappropriate, for sure” and “not even true.”

“I don’t know if this person was a Marxist or not,” Cramer said. “I have no sense. Nor does it matter, by the way, nor does it matter. I mean … what happened is absolutely, positively unacceptable in any political environment, and it’s tragic.”

Pressed on Lee’s response, Cramer added, “He maybe should have waited longer before he responded. I don’t know where he stands today on it. I just know where I do … the politics of this shooter are so irrelevant to me. … I just think whenever you rush to a judgment like this, when your political instincts kick in during a tragedy, you probably should realign some priorities, but I haven’t talked to Mike about it personally.”

A spokesperson for Lee did not immediately return a request for comment on why the posts were taken down.

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota, who was a friend of murdered state Rep. Melissa Hortman, confronted Lee just off the Senate floor Monday to condemn his comments. Republican senators POLITICO spoke to yesterday largely avoided direct condemnation, but signaled discomfort with politicizing the incident.

The deleted posts from Lee’s @BasedMikeLee personal account included a photo of the suspect in the shooting, Vance Boelter, with the caption: “This is what happens … When Marxists don’t get their way.” Another post featuring a photo of Boelter was captioned: “Nightmare on Waltz Street,” in apparent reference to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Lee did not respond to reporters’ questions about the posts yesterday but he replied to a X user who said, “According to Democrats you’re not allowed to make sarcastic posts anymore!”

“Ah yes,” he posted. “I must seek their permission.” That post remained up Tuesday afternoon.

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.

Rep. Thomas Massie said Tuesday he has filed a House resolution seeking to block U.S. involvement in the burgeoning conflict between Iran and Israel.

Announcing the move on X, the Kentucky Republican said he is being joined by a coterie of Democratic co-sponsors led by Rep. Ro Khanna of California. The measure, filed pursuant to the War Powers Resolution of 1973, would block President Donald Trump from engaging in “unauthorized hostilities” with Iran.

“This is not our war. Even if it were, Congress must decide such matters according to our Constitution,” Massie wrote, posting a copy of the resolution.

Efforts to reassert congressional power in American involvement abroad can bring together strange bedfellows — in this case, a host of leading progressives and a conservative hard-liner who is a frequent thorn in GOP leaders’ sides. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) has proposed a similar resolution in the Senate, though he has yet to announce any Republican cosponsors.

Joining Khanna as co-sponsors, Massie said, are Democratic Reps. Don Beyer of Virginia, Greg Casar of Texas, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nydia Velázquez of New York, Lloyd Doggett of Texas, Chuy Garcia and Delia Ramirez of Illinois, Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Summer Lee of Pennsylvania, Jim McGovern and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.

Some pro-Israel lawmakers have already come out against the resolution. “If AOC and Massie are a yes, that’s a good bet that I’ll be a no,” moderate New York Rep. Mike Lawler said Monday, referring to Ocasio-Cortez.

Khanna previously said the resolution would come up as “privileged,” meaning leaders would be forced to take it up on the floor — forcing a vote on Trump’s powers that Speaker Mike Johnson would likely prefer to avoid. Republican leaders could move to short-circuit the effort in the House Rules Committee, as they did with previous Democratic efforts to reverse Trump’s global tariffs.

Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

Senators used a closed-door briefing with law enforcement officials Tuesday to push for more funding for lawmaker security in the wake of the past weekend’s fatal shootings in Minnesota.

Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) were among the attendees making the case for additional resources to protect elected officials, according to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — underscoring the scope of the bipartisan appeal to representatives with the U.S. Capitol Police and Senate sergeant at arms conducting the briefing.

“The violence and threats against elected officials, including people in the Senate, has dramatically increased, and that means we need more protection, we need more money,” Schumer told reporters following the meeting.

Asked if he was suggesting there ought to be access to security details for senators going about their business outside the Capitol, Schumer demurred but said there are “lots of things that need to be done; [law enforcement] discussed it in some detail but given the increase in threats we need more protection for senators.”

Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said after the meeting that she expects Congress will need to increase Capitol Police funding but indicated that lawmakers did not get a specific number Tuesday for how much money security experts think the department needs.

Prior to the weekend’s fatal shootings and renewed threats against members of Congress, the Capitol Police had asked appropriators for $967.8 million for fiscal 2026 — a 22 percent boost over the current funding level, which was set in fiscal 2024. With lawmakers calling for even more resources, the budget for the relatively small force could top $1 billion for the first time in coming years.

Updated needs for the department could also come into force next week, when Mike Sullivan, the incoming Capitol Police chief, is sworn in and begins his official duties.

Former Sen. Bob Menendez began his 11-year prison sentence Tuesday morning, the Federal Bureau of Prisons said.

The New Jersey Democrat, 71, was at the height of his power in 2023, as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, when federal prosecutors in New York revealed allegations based on a yearslong investigation that he’d sold his office for piles of cash and bars of gold.

Now, he’s at Federal Correctional Institution Schuylkill in Minersville, Pennsylvania.

Following a two-month trial last summer, a jury found Menendez guilty on 16 counts, including bribery, acting as a foreign agent for Egypt, obstruction of justice, extortion and conspiring to commit those crimes along with a pair of businesspeople.

The businesspeople — Wael Hana, an Egyptian-American, and Fred Daibes, a prominent real estate developer — already began their sentences of eight and seven years, respectively.

Menendez is one of only a few senators to have ever served time and the last since another New Jersey Democrat, Sen. Harrison Williams Jr., went to prison in the 1980s after being caught up in the FBI’s Abscam sting operation.

Before he was sentenced in January, Menendez and his attorney asked for mercy — arguing he’d already been punished, having lost public office and being subjected to widespread mockery as “Gold Bar Bob.”

“Other than family, I have lost everything I ever cared about,” a tearful Menendez told U.S. District Court Judge Sidney Stein. Present in the courtroom were his two adult children, including his son, Rep. Rob Menendez.

Stein did not spare him, though, and said Menendez had succumbed to greed and hubris, going from someone who had stood up to corruption in New Jersey politics early in his career to someone who now himself was corrupt.

“Somewhere along the way, I don’t know where, you lost your way,” Stein said.

Menendez has in recent weeks taken to social media to decry the case against him, posts that many view as attempts to get a pardon from President Donald Trump. The federal investigation of Menendez appears to have begun in 2019, when Trump was president.

Menendez, Daibes and Hana are still appealing their convictions, with a team of experienced attorneys who have vowed to fight as long as it takes. There are issues in the case, including the scope of the Constitution’s “speech or debate” protections, that seem destined to intrigue appeals court judges and perhaps eventually the Supreme Court.

In particular, Menendez’s appeal focuses on rulings Stein made during the trial. Menendez objected to some of the evidence that prosecutors were allowed to share with jurors. Then, after the trial, prosecutors admitted even some evidence the judge ruled should not be shown to jurors was provided to jurors on a laptop they had access to during their deliberations.

While it wasn’t enough to keep him from starting his sentence, Menendez persuaded one judge in three-judge appeals court panel to last week back his request for bail pending appeal.

During a separate hearing, Daibes attorney Paul Clement, who served as solicitor general for President George W. Bush, also seemed to get appeals court judges’ attention on the speech or debate issues in the case.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has some “big beautiful” conflicts to resolve — and fast — if he wants to pass his party’s tax-and-spending package next week as planned.

Here’s a look at the biggest fires Thune needs to put out to meet his deadline, some of which are newly raging following Senate Finance’s release of long-awaited bill text:

MEDICAID JITTERS — “Medicaid moderates” are reeling after Republicans on the key committee proposed lowering the provider tax, from 6 percent to 3.5 percent by 2031 for states that have expanded Medicaid offerings under the Affordable Care Act. Several states rely heavily on this tax to help fund their Medicaid programs.

Republicans, including Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.), were already rebelling against the House-passed megabill’s move to find savings by freezing the provider tax. Now, Hawley is saying he’s “alarmed” that Senate Finance would go even further and that the plan “needs work.”

“I don’t know why we would defund rural hospitals in order to pay for Chinese solar panels,” he told reporters Monday evening, in a nod to Senate Republicans’ plan to ease some of the House GOP’s deep cuts to clean-energy tax credits (more on that below).

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) also expressed concern about the provider-tax change, though she declined to elaborate as she left the closed-door meeting Monday night where Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) was briefing GOP senators on his proposal. But Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said he doesn’t think the plan would go far enough in slashing spending on the safety-net program, suggesting senators should reconsider including a provision that would scale back the federal government’s share of paying for states’ Medicaid expansion.

Expect this to be a topic of discussion when GOP senators meet with CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz on Tuesday during the conference’s weekly lunch.

HOLD THE SALT — Blue-state House Republicans are seething as senators continue to haggle down their state-and-local-tax deduction cap. GOP senators included the current $10,000 deduction limit — rather than the $40,000 the House passed — as a placeholder in the draft bill text Senate Finance released Monday, giving space for talks to continue.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) declared the Senate’s proposal “dead on arrival” in the House. But Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who’s been backchanneling with SALT Republicans including Lawler, insisted to reporters that the deduction is “fully open for negotiating.” Thune also told reporters Monday that senators are “prepared to have discussions” amongst themselves to “figure out a landing spot.”

LESS GUTTING FOR GREEN CREDITS — Senate Republicans are extending some of the House’s aggressive phase-out dates for credits benefitting “baseload” energy technologies like nuclear, geothermal and hydropower, leaving one GOP proponent of the incentives, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), “generally satisfied.” They are still making significant cuts to solar, wind and electric vehicle incentives in Democrats’ 2022 climate law, but that’s not going to satisfy conservatives who want a full repeal of what they call the “Green New Scam.”

House Freedom Caucus members, who pushed for deep cuts to the green credits in order to get behind the megabill in their chamber last month, could fight the Senate’s slower roll. One member, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), declared on X he “will not vote for this.”

Dive deeper into the long list of other Senate Finance megabill changes.

What else we’re watching:

— Lawmaker safety after Minnesota shootings: Senators have a classified security briefing with the chamber’s sergeant at arms and Capitol Police this morning, where the question of resources for lawmaker safety could come up. Across the Capitol, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is asking Speaker Mike Johnson to increase funding for members’ security as more elected officials learn they were potential targets of the man suspected of the shootings in Minnesota.

— Senate’s first major crypto overhaul: The Senate is set this afternoon to pass landmark cryptocurrency legislation, one of Trump’s biggest policy priorities outside the megabill. The bipartisan bill would create a regulatory framework for digital tokens known as stablecoins that are pegged to the value of the dollar. But the legislation faces a murky future in the House.

— Gabbard, Ratcliffe on the Hill: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and NSA acting Director Lt. Gen. William Hartman will testify on behalf of the president’s fiscal 2026 budget request for intelligence during a closed Appropriations subcommittee hearing.

Jordain Carney, Brian Faler and Jasper Goodman contributed to this report.

Sen. Mike Lee of Utah was confronted by a Senate colleague Monday over his social media post that blamed the Minnesota shootings over the weekend that killed a former Democratic legislative leader on “Marxists.”

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, a friend of murdered state Rep. Melissa Hortman, spoke to the Utah Republican in a hallway off the Senate floor during evening votes.

“I wanted him to know how much pain that caused me and the other people in my state, and I think around the country, who think that this was a brutal attack,” Smith told reporters afterward. “I don’t know whether Senator Lee thought fully through what it was — you have to ask him — but I needed him to hear from me directly what impact I think his cruel statement had on me, his colleague.”

Lee on Sunday morning posted two messages on his X account that appeared to associate the perpetrator with political causes on the left. “This is what happens,” one said, “When Marxists don’t get their way.” Another included a reference to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

A spokesperson for Lee did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Lee’s personal X account, @BasedMikeLee, has increasingly become a forum for the senator’s sharply partisan and sometimes conspiratorial views.

Authorities have not commented on the motives behind the killings of Hortman and her husband, as well as the shootings of another state lawmaker and his wife. But law enforcement representatives say suspect Vance Boelter targeted exclusively Democratic officials, and friends and former colleagues told the AP that he held “deeply religious and politically conservative views.”

Smith and fellow Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar both knew Hortman and have said they were dismayed by Lee’s X posts. Lee’s office separately circulated a more staid statement “condemning this senseless violence, and praying for the victims and their families.”

“I think, too often in the Senate, we talk to one another through other people, and I wanted him to hear from me directly about what impact,” Smith said after her conversation. “I hope that my talking with him will cause him to think more about the hateful things that he has been putting out on his personal X account that really should have no place in our public discourse.”

Asked about Lee’s reaction, Smith said, “Honestly, he seemed a little surprised to be confronted.”