Candidates: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) vs. veteran Sam Brown (R)
Ad spending since Labor Day: $47.8 million for Democrats; $36.7 million for Republicans
Past results: Rosen won her first term in 2018, ousting incumbent Sen. Dean Heller by 5 percentage points, 50.4 to 45.4 percent.
2020 presidential result: 50.1 percent Biden, 47.7 percent Trump
Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democrat
Some background: Rosen was first elected to the House in 2016, winning a Las Vegas-based district left open by Republican Joe Heck, who decided to run for Senate. Rosen was recruited by then-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. She jumped to the Senate in 2018 and describes herself as the first former computer programmer and first former synagogue president to serve in the upper chamber.
Brown is an Army veteran who sustained severe burns in Afghanistan from an IED explosion. He first ran for office in Texas, losing a race for the state Legislature. After moving to Nevada, he lost the 2022 GOP primary for Senate to Adam Laxalt. Brown was the NRSC’s preferred candidate to take on Rosen this year.
The state of play: Rosen has enjoyed a persistent and comfortable lead in most public and private polling, a dynamic largely attributed to the spending disparity between Democrats and Republicans. But Trump has been showing surprising signs of strength in the state, and early voting trends seem to favor Republicans.
That helped inspire a last-minute investment from the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which dropped several million dollars into the race to help Brown. But Nevada and neighboring Arizona have long been viewed as the weaker pickup opportunities on the Senate map, and Republicans are not seriously contesting any of the House districts in the Silver State.
Why you should care: If Republicans oust Rosen, they are likely looking at a big Senate majority. They need to flip only two seats to guarantee control of the chamber; West Virginia, Montana and Ohio remain the strongest targets. The next tier of states with pickup opportunities for Republicans are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. If Brown can pull off a win in Nevada, it will be icing on the cake for the GOP — and a bad night for Democrats.
The issues: Rosen has made abortion rights a centerpiece of her campaign. And she has used her cash advantage to pummel Brown over the issue on the airwaves. The Republican candidate has said he supports Nevada’s current law that allows abortions up to 24 weeks, but he’s been less clear about whether or not he backs the state’s abortion ballot initiative, which would enshrine those rights into the state constitution. Another issue: Brown’s past support for using the state’s Yucca Mountain for storing nuclear waste — something that’s extremely unpopular in Nevada.
Every day POLITICO will highlight one race to watch. Yesterday’s: New York’s 17th District.